The Columbus Blue Jackets had a decision to make in the early part of December. With goaltender Daniil Tarasov ready to play NHL games, it was thought something would have to give with the goaltending with both Elvis Merzlikins and Spencer Martin in the fold.
The Blue Jackets ultimately made a decision. They decided to keep all three goalies on the roster. With Tarasov missing the season to date due to an injury, keeping three goalies around would allow them insurance in case something happened to one of them. It would also allow them time to evaluate all of their options in net. This meant punting a decision down the road.
We are now nine games into the Blue Jackets’ three-goalie rotation since Tarasov was activated on Dec 11. How have the goalies done to this point? And is this something that can be sustainable? The numbers sure do tell a story here.
Setting the Scene
In their last nine games since the goalie rotation started, the Blue Jackets have a record of 3-3-3 for hockey .500. While that’s certainly not great, it could be worse.
Now how have the starts been split up? Since there are three goalies on the active roster, one starts, one backs up and the other one is a scratch. The scratch can play as the emergency third goalie should it ever come to that.
The Blue Jackets said they had a plan for their goalie rotation. While they haven’t said exactly what that is publicly, there is a clear pattern on who is starting and potentially why.
- Merzlikins: 4 starts
- Tarasov: 4 starts
- Martin: 1 start
The two perceived goalies this season have eight of the nine starts. In the first five of those starts since the Dec 14 game in Toronto, Tarasov had three starts and Merzlikins had two starts. There was a clear priority to get Tarasov into some games to shake the rust off and get caught up to speed. His early numbers seem to point to this as well.
Now here is a breakdown of starts, number of times dressed as the back up and number of scratches.
- Merzlikins: 4 starts, 3 back ups, 1 healthy scratch, 1 scratch due to illness.
- Tarasov: 4 starts, 0 back ups, 5 healthy scratches.
- Martin: 1 start, 6 back ups, 2 healthy scratches.
It’s clear they don’t want Tarasov coming into a game cold given him coming off an injury. It’s also clear that Martin is essentially playing the role of a third goalie given these splits. He got the start against Boston on Tuesday night given his success against them earlier in the season.
Ugly Numbers
We have to preface this by saying it is a small sample size and there are other factors at play when talking about these numbers. Namely, the defense is very much a work in progress and has been for quite some time.
However, the numbers for these three goalies since the start of the rotation do speak for themselves. Take a look at the splits.
- Merzlikins: 1-0-2, 4 starts, 4.01 goals-against average, .891 save percentage.
- Tarasov: 1-2-1, 4 starts, 4.02 goals-against average, .877 save percentage.
- Martin: 1-1-0, 1 start, one relief appearance, 4.08 goals-against average, .848 save percentage.
Every goalie is a sub-.900 save percentage while having a goals-against average over 4.00. This is obviously not sustainable. The question the Blue Jackets must consider is how much longer can they do this?
Takeaways
Let’s talk takeaways. While the numbers on the surface are very, very poor, we do have to call some things out. First, Tarasov had his best outing his last time out in Buffalo. He is a case of a player working his way back so it’s expected that he would improve with each passing game. In four games, that is true so far.
On Merzlikins, the numbers again look pretty rough. But there have been points in games where he has kept the Blue Jackets in the game.
Merzlikins shut the Maple Leafs out for two periods on Dec 14 before that third period comeback in which the Blue Jackets escaped with an overtime win. He then got the Blue Jackets to overtime before his lost it against Tom Wilson. He got to overtime again in New Jersey playing well early before the Devils came back. His numbers are inflated because of moments of inconsistency within games.
As for Martin, the team is on record as saying there’s a lot to like about him. That’s why they claimed him off waivers originally. But since that win against the Bruins, it’s been all downhill. He was in goal for the 7-3 loss to the Islanders before this rotation. Now he’s in a place where he isn’t playing a lot but has to be ready in case of injury or illness. That’s a hard thing to do.
In the end, all three have to play better. No one carrying a goals-against average under 4.00 is simply not good enough.
The Big Question
Now the big question here. When do the Blue Jackets make their move? As long as they carry three goalies, they take up a precious roster spot. Given who is expected back soon, that spot may be needed in short order. Surely they can’t go all the way to the trade deadline with three goalies, can they? That is when roster rules change in terms of the number of players who can be on the active roster.
What we need to consider is what options the Blue Jackets have in all of this. If a goalie gets injured, they have two others available. But outside of that, the recent deployment at least suggests Martin could be waived. Many expected this to be the eventual outcome once everyone was up to speed. But if the team likes him and wants to continue to insure they have an option beyond Tarasov, they could choose to keep him.
What about Jet Greaves? He’s played really well in the AHL and has shown well when called upon in the NHL. The feeling here is that the Blue Jackets want to keep Greaves thriving in the AHL as long as possible. The Monsters have a good thing going this season. Why not keep those good times rolling?
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If the Blue Jackets were fully convinced Tarasov was ready and there was no imminent threat of re-injury, they would have done something by now. Of course there is the surprise option of doing something with Merzlikins, waive him or trade him. I do not get the sense they’re thinking anywhere along those lines, at least for now.
If I had to say what might happen here, I would think Martin eventually gets waived, but by no means is that a guarantee. It will depend on the need for the roster spot. It will also depend on injury and availability. Performance will also be considered.
No matter how the Blue Jackets handle this, the three-goalie approach is not sustainable long-term, especially given the early returns in the current situation they’re in. As long as all three remain on the roster, they all have to play better than what they’ve shown. But it’s only a matter of time before the Blue Jackets have to do something. The clock is ticking.