Don Waddell, former president and general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes for the past 10 years and current president of hockey operations, general manager, and alternate governor of the Columbus Blue Jackets, casually dropped a bombshell report in a recent podcast with top hockey insider, Jeff Marek. He told Marek that he contacted then-Columbus general manager Jarmo Kekalainen a few years ago regarding an Elvis Merzlikins trade.
Waddell states the two sides progressed on a deal, but evidently, nothing got done, and now Waddell has taken Kekalainen’s job and Merzlikins remains a Blue Jacket. Considering both the Hurricanes and Merzlikins have not lived up to expectations in recent seasons, what would have been different had a trade gone through?
What Could the Offer Have Been?
It is important to note Waddell states this was “a few seasons” ago because Merzlikins has struggled a lot over the past three seasons. After posting a 2.35 goals-against average (GAA) and .923 save percentage (SV%) in his rookie season and a 2.77 GAA and .916 SV% the season after, Merzlikins has since struggled a lot.
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He was just 25 years old when he broke onto the scene in Columbus and looked to be a great predecessor to Sergei Bobrovsky. However, due to poor defense, an overwhelming workload, inconsistent coaching, and injuries, Merzlikins has since regressed to a borderline NHL goaltender, all while making $5.4 million. However, his story would be vastly different had the trade gone through.
Assuming these trade talks took place after Merzlikins’ second season (2020-21), his value would have been quite high. He had one season remaining at a $4 million salary, and Carolina was in need of a goaltending upgrade. While they eventually signed Frederik Andersen, adding the younger Merzlikins would have been a better move. While Andersen has been solid in Carolina, going 69-27-4 with a 2.22 GAA and .918 SV%, he has struggled to stay on the ice, playing just 102 regular season games over his three-year career in Raleigh. While it is debatable which of the two would have been the better option, Andersen’s injury struggles prove the team made an unlucky, and unforeseen, mistake in his addition.
In the end, a trade would have likely involved then-Hurricanes goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic, who was eventually traded to the Detroit Red Wings. From there, Carolina would have likely added a mid-round draft pick, either a second or third-round pick. Of course, knowing how the next few seasons wound up for Merzlinkins this may seem like an overpay, but it must be understood how different of a player he was back then.
Predicting What Would Be Different
Had a trade gone through, how different of a position would the two teams be in today? It is very difficult to predict how an entire season would have gone differently, but it would likely result in a similar fashion. Andersen dominated the 2021-22 regular season, going 35-14-3 with a 2.17 GAA and .917 SV%, and ultimately missed the 2022 Playoffs due to an MCL injury. Antti Raanta got the majority of the playoff work and led the Hurricanes to a Round 2 loss to the New York Rangers.
If Merzlikins had been with Carolina, the team likely would have still made the playoffs and potentially faced the Rangers, though they likely still would have been eliminated in Round 2. Raanta and Merzlikins had similar regular season stats, with Merzlikins having 4.0 goals saved above expected, according to Money Puck, just edging out Raanta’s 3.7. While there is no way to simulate if the Merzlikins would have won more games for Carolina than Raanta, it is hard to imagine he would have been the difference between a Round 2 exit and a Stanley Cup victory.
From there, Merzlikins would have been a free agent, free to sign wherever he pleases, so predicting what would have happened then is anyone’s guess. However, considering Carolina’s historical turnstile in net, it is more likely than not for him to have joined a new club for the 2022-23 season.
It’s important to remember that the true nature of the trade talks remains unknown. Waddell disclosed that he had a serious discussion with Kekalainen, but it ultimately led nowhere. While speculating on the “what if” scenarios can be entertaining, there’s a reason this trade didn’t materialize. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note that Waddell now has the goaltender he once sought to acquire, except under less favorable conditions, so it will be fun to see how he proceeds.
