There hasn’t been much to get excited about for the St. Louis Blues this season. Even as the team became red hot down the stretch, each win came with a little bit of salt in the wounds, as fans recognized that victories cost the team better odds at landing a high pick in the NHL Draft Lottery. But there was one clear highlight for the team in the final few weeks of the season: newly-acquired forward Jakub Vrána. The Czech forward joined the Blues on trade deadline day for almost free, coming over from the Detroit Red Wings for a seventh-round pick and a relatively-unknown AHL player. It was a no-risk add for general manager Doug Armstrong and one that has paid off handsomely so far. But as we’ll discuss, calls to extend the 27-year-old are coming a little too soon. The Blues need to be patient before they make any rash decisions based on small sample size.
Vrána Excels in St. Louis
Armstrong swooped in to relieve the Red Wings of Vrána’s services on trade deadline day, a deal that made sense for both teams. Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman was clearly frustrated with his player, who had come in with a lot of promise and signed an early three-year extension. But a shoulder injury cost Vrána most of the 2021-22 season, and his 2022-23 season was quickly derailed when he chose to enter the NHL player assistance program. While the reasons for a player pursuing the program are always kept under wraps, Yzerman spoke critically about Vrána’s behavior shortly after his departure. As Yzerman said, it “was time for both parties to move on.”
But Vrána quickly found his footing with the Blues and had a fantastic 20-game stretch with his new team. He scored 10 goals and added four assists in his time, was a plus-2, and averaged over 15 minutes per game — proving that he quickly earned the trust of head coach Craig Berube.
In a full season based on those numbers, Vrána would project to score 41 goals and 57 points. Presumably, in a full season, he would add more assists, especially as he grew more accustomed to his teammates. Defensively, he is still a liability, and his metrics have not graded well in that aspect of the game throughout his career. But Armstrong must have known that when he acquired him. So with a player that is red hot in his new home and becomes extension eligible on July 1, why not strike while the iron is hot and keep him in St. Louis long term? In short, history warns that it might be a bad move.
Avoid Repeating Detroit’s Mistake
Vrána’s arrival in St. Louis is eerily reminiscent of his arrival in Detroit during the 2020-21 season. Like this season, he was in a fairly shocking deadline day trade, moving from the Washington Capitals to Detroit as the major piece the Red Wings got in return for Anthony Mantha. Like this season, he tore it up during a brief stint with the team, scoring eight goals and adding three assists in 11 games. Unlike this season, Detroit did not have the luxury of an extra year remaining on his contract, and they chose to give him a three-year, $15.75 million contract extension. For reasons already detailed, that contract ended up haunting Detroit, so much so that they are paying half of the remaining year left on the deal simply to move him out of the Motor City.
Related: Red Wings Need a Jakub Vrána Redemption Story
The Blues have that luxury of an extra season, which Detroit did not. Why rush? If Vrána lights it up early next season and continues to look like the player he has so far, there will be plenty of time to extend him. After spending years looking for a long-term home, it’s tough to imagine he wouldn’t be interested in re-signing with St. Louis. But there’s no need to put the cart before the horse. The Blues already have enough long-term contract extensions they regret. Why take a chance on adding another one when they have a full season left to collect data on Vrána?
What is Vrána’s Future?
So, what do you think? Should the Blues hurry up and lock down Vrána as a long-term part of their future? Or are they right to wait and see how he performs in season two? Let us know in the comments. The Blues have a long offseason ahead of them, but they won’t be lacking things to talk about, and Vrána is certain to be a frequent topic of discussion.