The St. Louis Blues had several players that underperformed last season, and many of them will look to rebound this season. However, that doesn’t stop them from having a few regression candidates on the team this season. Keep in mind that being a regression candidate doesn’t mean that the player will have a bad season, but I am picking them to have a slight dip in their production from last season. Let’s get into three Blues regression candidates for the 2023-24 season.
Brayden Schenn
Brayden Schenn, in my opinion, is not a 60-point player at this stage in his career anymore. Although he had 21 goals and 65 points last season, I don’t think he can or will replicate those numbers again. He will still have a large impact on the Blues this season, but I expect his production to drop.
He could still put up 20 goals and 30 assists this season, but I don’t think he should be expected to do much more than that. He’ll turn 32 years old before the season begins and he’s played a lot of tough minutes throughout his career. At some point, regression will come for him, and I expect it to start this season. He’s been phenomenal for the Blues since being traded to St. Louis in 2017, outside of an outlier poor 2020-21 season, where he had 36 points in 55 games.
I expect Schenn to play fewer minutes per game this season, but that won’t be the only reason for a dip in production. He’s likely to anchor the third line for the Blues, and that might not be a high-scoring line. However, he could end up on the second line if head coach Craig Berube feels Kevin Hayes is a better fit for the third line. It’ll be interesting to see Schenn’s results in an attempt to follow up a productive last two seasons.
Justin Faulk
It’s clear that Justin Faulk’s defensive game, which was on display a couple of seasons ago, has already regressed. This pick is based on his offensive production taking a dip, and I believe it will. There are a multitude of reasons for this pick, but I’m certain that durability won’t be a reason. He’s missed just eight games in four seasons with the Blues, and two of those eight were during the COVID-19-suspended 2019-20 season.
Related: Blues 2022-23 Report Cards: Justin Faulk
Part of my predicted Faulk regression is the fact that the Blues won’t rely on him for much offense if Torey Krug and Scott Perunovich are running both power-play units. While he hasn’t been much of a power play merchant in his time with the Blues, those opportunities matter as the team tries to fix their defensive issues at 5-on-5. I’m not sure how much Berube and his new staff will want to have blueliners push offense, especially since Faulk is a player who they rely on defensively. It comes down to the simple fact that I don’t expect Faulk to reach 50 points this season, but I’d gladly be wrong about that.
Sammy Blais
I have always been a huge fan of Sammy Blais, but I don’t think the level of production that he had after being traded back to the Blues last season is sustainable. I have zero doubt that he will be valuable to the Blues this season, but his production is more than likely to regress at least a little bit.
Since his return to the Blues last season, Blais put up terrific offensive numbers with 20 points in 31 games. He looked both healthier and more confident after a tough stint with the New York Rangers.
| Seasons | Points Per Game | Points | Shots Per Game |
| 2021-2023 (with Rangers) | 0.17 | 9 (54 games) | 0.78 |
| 2023 (with Blues) | 0.65 | 20 (31 games) | 1.26 |
Source: Hockey Reference
This chart makes it clear that Blais was a completely different player with the Blues in 2023 than at any point during his time with the Rangers. Even without a lot of production, he is still effective with his willingness to throw his body around and block shots. I expect his numbers to level out this season, but he’ll still be worth way more than the $1 million salary that he has this season.
The Blues don’t have many regression candidates after numerous players had down seasons in 2022-23. Outside of these three picks and maybe a defenseman like Calle Rosen, there are no other real candidates. The Blues need bounce-back seasons from several players this season and I believe they will get them.