The Tampa Bay Lightning have found some of their championship mojo heading into the All-Star Break. Winners of eight of the last nine games, the team snagged third place in the Atlantic Division and bumped the Toronto Maple Leafs into the first wild card position. Of course, Nikita Kucherov’s scorching scoring pace has driven the team’s success. But Brayden Point’s reemergence as a dominant player has provided the team with a crucial piece of consistent offense it had been missing. It is not surprising then to see the Lightning playing some of their best hockey this season as Point reestablishes himself.
Point’s Inconsistent 2023
On the surface, Point’s campaign in 2023, the first half of the season, looked solid. In 38 games, he netted 17 goals and 22 assists for 39 points. It is hard to complain about his point-per-game pace. Most Lightning fans would agree, however, that something seemed off. In one game he would look like the dominant player of seasons past, and in other games, he would seem to disappear or be easy to push off pucks. After digging into his numbers, Point’s inconsistency on both sides of the puck stood out, and perhaps that is what observers were sensing.
Through the first 38 games of the season, Point did not have a point in back-to-back games five separate times – including a five-game point drought between Nov. 30 and Dec. 7 and a three-game drought between Dec. 23 and Dec. 30. In total, he was held pointless in 16 games, about 42 percent of the Lightning’s contests. That is a strikingly high number for someone most would consider Tampa Bay’s second-best forward.
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Point’s defensive numbers reflect and parallel his inconsistent scoring. In games he scored at least one point, he owned a plus-6 rating. When he did not register a point, he carried a minus-14 rating. That swing of 20 points suggests that when he was not scoring he was being scored on by a wide, wide margin.
These defensive lapses are not solely Point’s fault. The entire team struggled to find solid ground for much of the season. The numbers do indicate though that, at the very least, when Point did not score, his game lapsed. Conversely, the more he scored the less his defensive play suffered. Of course, as anyone who plays hockey knows, when you are scoring you tend to feel more confident. However, you do not like to see that type of inconsistency out of Point.
Point Reemerges in 2024
Fortunately for Lightning fans, Point looks to have rebounded after the start of the new year. He has notched eight goals and seven assists for 15 points in 12 games. Those numbers bump him to 1.25 points per game – a 22 percent increase from his 1.03 points per game pace in 2023. Now sitting at 54 points in 50 games, including 25 goals, he is on pace for 88 points and 41 goals. These numbers look much more like the Point who helped lead the Lightning to back-to-back Stanley Cups.
Point’s point production looks more consistent as well. He has only been held without a point three times so far this year, and none of those games have been back-to-back. Furthermore, although he sits at a minus-1, his plus/minus rating in games with a point (plus-0) and without a point (minus-1) is significantly more stable. That 20-point swing in 2023 has dwindled to a one-point difference, indicating that Point’s consistent defensive play is not as tied to his scoring.
Point’s chemistry with Kucherov has reignited as well. Watch the clip above for evidence: Kucherov takes a pass, pulls the puck between his legs, and backhands it across traffic to Point who scores. The look of disbelief on Point’s face says it all. Something has changed with these two, and it was not Kucherov because he has been playing well all season. No, Point looks more confident and composed with the puck, and his underlying numbers prove that he was not achieving his full potential throughout the first half of the season, even with Kucherov as a linemate.
After a 7-3 win over the Minnesota Wild on Jan. 18, Point told reporters what he thought the Lightning were doing differently during that four-game winning streak. “I think we’re just starting to play with a little more confidence. Good to see us find some confidence and go on a little bit of a win streak here. Hopefully, we can keep it going.” It is a short comment, but that confidence goes a long way not only for a team but also for a player. Like Point had hoped, both he and the Lightning have been able to carry that momentum into the All-Star Break.
Perhaps All Is Not Lost This Season
You may not have written the Lightning off entirely, but surely some doubts about the season had crept into your mind. I will admit they had for me. But much like Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers are showing, stringing together wins in this league can put you right back into the playoff hunt. The Lightning have not won 16 straight like Edmonton, but the team’s start to 2024, along with Point’s elevated play, seem to be proving Jeff Marek and Elliotte Friedman correct. Never bet against the Tampa Bay Lightning.