Brock Nelson found the back of the net against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the New York Islanders’ 5-4 overtime win on Feb. 20, a game they needed desperately to win. He darted up the ice with the puck and backhanded it into the net for the team’s first goal of the game.
It was the second game in a row that Nelson scored, and similarly, the second consecutive game that he registered two points. Against the New York Rangers in the Stadium Series on Sunday, he got the Islanders on the board for their first of five goals with his shot from the slot. The Islanders lost the game in overtime, but Nelson’s goal and strong overall play helped the team earn a point to keep them in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
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The chase for 40 goals is suddenly back in play for Nelson. He scored 37 in 2021-22 and 36 in 2022-23, but this season, he could not only reach a career-high but also become the first Islander to score 40 goals in a season since Anders Lee in 2017-18. His chase for the milestone is significant because he’s the skater who can carry the Islanders in the final few months of the season.
Nelson’s Likelihood of Reaching 40
Nelson has 24 on the season, which leads the team, but not by much. Bo Horvat has 22, and with one hot streak, he could be in the 40-goal conversation as well. The Islanders play 27 more games. For Nelson to reach the milestone, he doesn’t need a goal-per-game pace, but it’s close – he must find the back of the net at least 16 times.
The odds are stacked against him, and while he can best his 37 goals, it’s unlikely he’ll reach the 40-goal mark. That said, Nelson’s the type of player who can catch fire and pile up goals. The Islanders have seen stretches when he’s piled up the goals game after game, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if that’s how he finishes this season.
On top of that, he could become one of the dynamic scorers on a power play that has become a strength for the team. The power play has a 23.49 percent success rate, and the top-heavy roster allows their elite skaters to take advantage of the man advantage. Nelson has six power-play goals on the season, always looking for open shots in the face-off circles where he can easily pick apart opposing goaltenders. The unit continuing to play at a high level will allow him to slowly climb the scoresheet.
Nelson Continues to Carry Offense
Nelson’s shot stands out, but recently, he’s proven he can find the back of the net in multiple ways. From the staple wrap-around to the rush chances or even finishing scoring chances near the net, he’s a constant scoring presence for the team. His goal in the Feb. 20 win over the Penguins was one where he navigated the defense and slipped the puck past Alex Nedeljkovic for a highlight reel goal that put his skillset on full display.
Most skaters start to decline at 30 years old. Nelson is aging gracefully and using his experience to his advantage. His scoring instincts are improving each season and allow him to find open shots in the offensive zone and near the net. At 32 years old, he has become a focal point of the offense.
The offense, while improved from previous seasons, has struggled, averaging only 2.98 goals per game, and the second line has been a disappointment. Granted, Kyle Palmieri has started to find a rhythm, scoring 15 goals and 17 assists this season, including five goals and four assists in his last 11 games, but Pierre Engvall, who signed a seven-year contract this offseason, has dropped off. Engvall only has six goals and 11 assists and hasn’t been the dynamic scorer on the wing the Islanders hoped he’d be. Nelson has led his line by not only finding the back of the net but also making the skaters around him better. His 21 assists are reflective of his ability to find open skaters in the offensive zone.
Islanders Push for the Playoffs Starts With Him
The Islanders have stumbled lately, winning only one of their last three games. The hope was that hiring Patrick Roy as head coach would make a difference as he would add a spark behind the bench. Roy has a 4-3-3 record thus far, and while the team has improved, they still display the same glaring weakness as an undisciplined team. The Islanders are hanging by a thread in the playoff picture, and if they turn the season around, it will be because of Nelson’s ability to continue creating offense.
There are a handful of players who will enable the Islanders to finish strong. Ilya Sorokin can put together multiple lights-out performances in net to bail his team out of a few games they might deserve to lose. The defense, especially with Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock back in the lineup, should improve to become a strength again. The scoring depth can show up as well, and four potent forward lines will make the Islanders’ offense tough to stop. However, Nelson’s offensive spark will allow the team to pile up wins and slowly climb the standings.
Nelson’s Scoring Surge a Reminder of His Value
Nelson is one of five players the Islanders can build a contender around. Mathew Barzal and Horvat lead the top line, while Noah Dobson has emerged as the only two-way defenseman on the team, and in the net is the reliable Sorokin. Nelson is the second-line center who allows the offense to have multiple potent scoring lines, and he makes an impact in every facet of the game.
The Islanders have seen their depth fall apart this season. Outside of the top six, there isn’t a scoring presence, and the defensive unit is a liability outside of the top two pairings. On a team whose depth isn’t stepping up, Nelson is integral to their success.
In recent weeks, there’s been a lot of talk about Nelson’s trade value. After all, the best time to move him is now, when his value is at its highest. However, this recent stretch is a reminder that he won’t be moved unless the team is out of the playoff picture. Nelson will likely remain on the team and be one of the reasons they are competitive for the remainder of this season.