The Buffalo Sabres ended 2023 on a sour note, as they failed to live up to the expectations they set after a strong 2022-23 campaign. The recent results have left them with several big questions to answer in 2024.
Who Will Be the Starting Goalie?
The Sabres came into 2023-24 carrying three goalies on their roster, each vying for the starting job. As of January 2024, there is still no clear-cut starter. After three months that included a combination of injuries and mediocre performances, the Sabres waived Eric Comrie on New Year’s Eve. They narrowed the goalie tandem down to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi. It has been a peculiar season for these two netminders, who have seemingly flipped places over the past month.
Luukkonen got off to a better start to the season, securing a .918 save percentage (SV%) and 3.62 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in his first 11 starts. Over the same timeframe, Levi had only a .887 SV% and a negative-3.85 GSAx. Levi was briefly sent down to the American Hockey League (AHL), and Lukkonnen was beginning to look like a viable 1A. When Levi was recalled to Buffalo in early December, everything changed.
Luukkonen began struggling with a disastrous .846 SV% and negative-7.26 GSAx over his past seven games. He has allowed over one goal per game more than expected. On the other hand, Levi had a .900 SV% in December and a GSAx of negative-0.43, a notable improvement from early on in the season. After an inconsistent few months for both goalies, the Sabres need to find out who is the best fit to take the reins as the 1A goalie going forward.
Can the Sabres Turn Their Powerplay Woes Around?
One of the most significant issues for the Sabres this season has been their dreadful special teams units. Their powerplay, ninth in the NHL last season at 23.4%, has plummeted to 12.8%. They are near the bottom of the league in offensive zone entries with possession on the man advantage. They haven’t found ways to gain the blue line and get set up.
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On top of that, they are also near the bottom of the league in slot shots on the powerplay. Getting pucks to the net from dangerous shooting areas has been a bigger challenge for them this season. The talent is on this roster, so it’s puzzling that generating offense on the powerplay has become such a pressing issue. They have the personnel to turn it around, but the coaching staff and players must develop a new game plan.
Will Don Granato Remain the Sabres’ Head Coach?
This season was supposed to be playoffs or bust for the Sabres. They had built momentum toward the end of 2022-23 and appeared poised to take the next step. Unfortunately, their 15-19-4 record places them 14th in the Eastern Conference as the halfway point approaches. Their chances to make the playoffs are quickly dwindling.
Whenever a promising team underperforms expectations, the question arises: Would they benefit from a coaching change? The fans made their opinions about head coach Don Granato loud and clear in a Dec. 19 game against the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Sabres lost 9-4, and fans could be heard chanting, “Fire Donny.” While the players and general manager Kevyn Adams have voiced their support for Granato, the calls for a change will only get louder if performance on the ice spirals. The following month or two could be his last chance to pull the Sabres out of the league’s basement and save his job.
Can the Sabres’ Top Line Recapture Last Season’s Magic?
The regression of the Sabres’ top line offensively in 2023-24 has been concerning. Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch, and Tage Thompson were offensive powerhouses in 2022-23. They produced a combined 3.31 points per game played (P/GP). This season, they have a combined P/GP of 2.30, a decrease of about 31%.
The only hope the Sabres have of improvement in 2024 is if this top line can recapture some of their scoring touch. Thompson, who injured his wrist after being hit with a puck earlier this season, was seen wearing a brace even after returning to the lineup. There’s little doubt that the injury compromised his finishing ability, but he has been looking more like himself lately, and it’s only a matter of time before he starts scoring.
Between his and Tuch’s injuries and the constant lineup shuffling Granato has done to try and stimulate more offense, the Skinner, Thompson, and Tuch trio has spent less time together than they did last season. If there’s anything to be optimistic about, all three of them appear to be healthy, and they’ve had solid underlying numbers as a trio this season. History tells us that a talented line like this, shooting at 5.13% while on the ice together, is bound to increase production when their shooting regresses to the mean.
Will the Sabres Make a Major Trade?
There has been little trade speculation for the Sabres this season, and it’s easy to see why. The team sits in no man’s land in the Eastern Conference standings; not quite a bottom feeder and not quite good enough to be buyers at the deadline. Unless they pull off a miraculous run in early 2024, the Sabres will likely sell some of their pending unrestricted free agents. Victor Olofsson, Erik Johnson, and Tyson Jost will be prime candidates.
It could be a quiet deadline for Buffalo, but would another season out of the playoffs create enough pressure on the organization to make a big splash in the 2024 offseason? Adams tried a conservative approach last offseason and did little to shake up the roster significantly. They have a ton of prospects and young assets, so if the right deal presented itself, it might be worth considering a significant acquisition to boost the core group. Patience is starting to wear thin in Buffalo, and the time may come this year to make some difficult decisions.
January Will Be Critical for the Sabres
The month ahead is the last chance for the Sabres to make enough headway to get back in the playoff hunt. If they fail, we will see players sold at the deadline, off-season trades made, and potentially even a coaching change. The youngest team in the NHL still has a long way to go. Will we see them take a step forward in 2024? Time will tell.