One thing (at least) is for sure: Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes faces an offseason of heightened expectations, after increasing from a league-low 55 points in 2022 to 68 in 2023 and 76 this past season. Competing for a playoff spot should be a goal heading into 2024-25.
So, it stands to reason, limited movement in free agency may not be well-received by an at-times rabid fanbase. Some analysts have gone so far as to suggest the Canadiens may go “big-game hunting,” which really only serves to muddy the waters. Keep in mind, that doesn’t mean Hughes will succeed — or that he’ll even try, especially in the face of bigger offseason priorities.
Granted, reports have surfaced that he’s inquired about the availability of Carolina Hurricanes forward Martin Necas, but is that “trying,” when all it technically requires is picking up the phone? Considering many teams have called the Canes according to those same reports, it isn’t exactly going above and beyond to secure that big name, as some might like to believe. Nothing is imminent or guaranteed to happen at all, in other words.
In truth, no one, to a degree not even Hughes himself, knows what will happen there or regarding free agency as so many uncontrollable variables must be taken into account. However, that far from means he’s completely rudderless in general. Canadiens fans should find comfort in knowing beyond a reasonable doubt the following will happen this summer, in order of increasing certainty:
5. Canadiens Won’t Buy Out Anyone
Hughes doesn’t have to look far and wide for proof as to why buyouts, well, suck. Defenseman Karl Alzner’s buyout is just coming off the books, effectively four years after the fact. So, after the Canadiens have just gotten out from under the thumb of his deal, it would only make twisted sense for the Habs to pursue that avenue. You’d hope they’d have learned their lesson.
Maybe the $833,333 annual hit wasn’t especially handicapping. However, it definitely was a handicap, and, with the likeliest candidates to be bought out, probably Josh Anderson and Brendan Gallagher, having higher cap hits than Alzner did ($4.625 million), it stands to reason Hughes would sooner pursue the trade route than start the Canadiens at a disadvantage every season during their projected window to contend (when just three seasons remain on each of their deals).
If the sheer logic of the situation wasn’t deterrent enough to consider it a possibility, Hughes himself has acknowledged it won’t likely happen.
That might not be definitive proof. However, you’d think Hughes would have been a bit more non-committal in his wording if it were a realistic option. It’s just not.
4. Canadiens Will Draft a Forward with First, First-Round Draft Pick
What the Canadiens do with their second, first-round pick is far more of a mystery. At No. 5 overall, there’s no reason to overthink it. They’ll be taking a forward.
It’s possible the Canadiens find themselves in a situation at No. 5 overall where the best player available is a defenseman. However, they for all intents and purposes went off the board in 2023 to draft David Reinbacher, effectively to address a need on the right side on defense, when projected top-tier options at forward were still available. It’s wise to bet on the opposite coming true in 2024.
The fact is the Canadiens lack elite talent up front. And, while they’re not in a position to draft someone generational per se, there should still be incredibly good forward options available by the time the Habs take the podium, especially with so many high-ranking defensive prospects.
In retrospect, regardless of how you feel about Reinbacher, it probably made sense to draft the forward in 2023 and the defenseman in 2024. However, they’ve made their bed and it’s time to make the most of it. They certainly can go a long way to doing that with the right pick. Of course, it’s hard to say who’ll pan and who’ll bust out, but that’s not what’s up for debate. As sure as it’s a well-known fact the Canadiens have a logjam on defense, they’ll shift their attention accordingly.
3. Canadiens Will Re-Sign Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron
Technically, trading either Arber Xhekaj or Justin Barron is a possibility, based on the aforementioned logjam on defense. However, keep in mind, the lefthanded defenseman (Xhekaj) has suffered a shoulder injury two years in a row and is currently still on the shelf. A trade under those circumstances is less than likely. The Habs have far less depth on the right, making a hypothetical Barron trade just as nonsensical.
Related: Canadiens Must Find Permanent Spot for Barron on Defense
So, by process of elimination, the Canadiens will re-sign both of them. The exact amount and term remain to be seen, but it is a relative slam dunk, which is unfortunately more than can be said about fellow-restricted free agent Jesse Ylonen, after an eight-point season. It’s more so to do with his utilization than output, as the forward doesn’t seem to be in their long-term plans, making Barron and Xhekaj really the only signings, restricted or unrestricted, about which fans can feel certain.
2. Canadiens Won’t Re-Sign Their Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs)
Scratch that, in the sense Canadiens fans can feel certain neither Tanner Pearson, Colin White nor Chris Wideman will get re-signed either. It would legitimately take something incredibly unforeseen, an extinction-level event for example, for Pearson to climb up the team’s depth chart as one of the organization’s top 13 hypothetical, healthy forwards.
To be fair, that’s more so a reflection of the team’s young forwards, like Joshua Roy, who should be in line for a permanent promotion. However, there’s no sugarcoating it: Pearson’s 13 points in 54 games, in a contract year no less during which he should have been playing for a new contract, far from impressed. Ditto for White, while Wideman, who didn’t play in 2023-24 at all, has retired, all of which should contribute to a relatively quiet (but far from unimportant offseason) for Hughes.
1. Canadiens Won’t (Re-)Sign Sean Monahan
The notion the Canadiens wouldn’t be able to secure a first-round pick for Sean Monahan (they did) was always ludicrous. Not only did he prove it time and again in terms of the secondary offense he provided the Habs, but he reinforced how much he was worth upon having gotten traded to the Winnipeg Jets early this calendar year.
In 34 games down the stretch, Monahan scored 13 goals (11 assists). Altogether, the soon-to-be 30-year-old scored 59 points, thus putting him in line for a healthy new contract as a UFA. It won’t be with the Canadiens, much to the chagrin of many who felt it made more sense for the Canadiens to re-sign than trade him (it didn’t).
The fact the Canadiens are in this position, with some suggesting they can still (and should) re-sign Monahan, while having also secured the aforementioned first-round pick (plus) proves that much. However, taking everything into account, including his age, injury history and projected demands, committing to a player on the verge of decline is counterproductive to a team that will be looking to contend in a few years.
Hughes himself said during the post-trade media availability that, “We don’t have enough clarity regarding our future to offer him a reasonable contract.” If you read between the lines, he’s arguably saying we can’t say for sure our window aligns with the few good seasons we can reasonably deduce Monahan has left. Considering he’d be looking for much more term than that, what’s the point of so much as entertaining the notion?
Ironically, another ex-Canadiens forward, Tyler Toffoli, who coincidentally just played with Monahan with the Jets, makes arguably the most sense of any hypothetical target, based on his track record, how he fit with the Habs the last time around (leading them in scoring in 2020-21) and what they’d be looking for now, i.e., a scoring winger with a winning pedigree. However, Toffoli’s also 2.5 years older than Monahan, further making any medium to long-term deal a risky proposition. And it would be a similar situation (or worse) with any realistic signing (Jonathan Marchessault is going to be 34).
So, if going after Toffoli makes more sense than going after Monahan, but doesn’t really make sense at all, does free agency in general? For a team like the Canadiens? There’s a time for unrestricted free agency. It isn’t after a fifth-from-last 76-point season when all you’re really hoping for is to compete for a playoff spot next season. With that, maybe a 25-year-old forward like Necas is a solution, but not one fans should count on as anything close to realistic… unlike the Canadiens being better in 2024-25 all on their own, the status quo largely remaining intact.
