Montreal Canadiens forward Christian Dvorak isn’t the problem per se. The problem is more so the surplus of forwards like him at the bottom of the lineup, ones that don’t move the needle all that much, all due respect to him.
However, what other possible assessment of Dvorak’s game is there, objectively speaking? After scoring just five goals and four assists in a 30-game injury-shortened season, the best thing Canadiens fans can say about the guy is he’s easily replaceable, at least on the ice.
Alex Newhook Emerges as Another Option at Centre
With so many injuries down the middle (Dvorak and Kirby Dach) and Sean Monahan having gotten traded as early as he did ahead of the deadline, the Canadiens were in a way lucky. They were in a position where expectations were still fairly low and head coach Martin St. Louis could afford to be creative with his roster decision-making.
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To his credit, fourth-liner Jake Evans put up a respectable 28 points over a full 82-game season with the added offensive responsibility, with ~1:30 more in ice time per game relative to last season. However, the real story was Alex Newhook. He had a breakout campaign at centre, when, based on the lines the Canadiens deployed to start the season, they had envisioned him as more of a winger on Dach’s line.
Of course, then Dach got injured two games in, forcing the Canadiens to pivot. As a result, Newhook got thrown into the fire. St. Louis played him down the middle between Juraj Slafkovsky and Josh Anderson, a line that earned mixed reviews, which is a polite way of saying it couldn’t score to save its life, literally. It got dismantled eventually.
Newhook himself got injured in late November, only returning from a high ankle sprain once Monahan got dealt in early February. At that point, there were few other options but to give Newhook another chance at centre, and he definitely made the most of the opportunity. Before the injury, he had scored 13 points (seven goals) in 23 games. He ended the season having scored 21 points (eight goals) in his last 30 games.
Overall, Newhook’s 34 points in 55 games put him at the same pace as Dach last season (38 points in 58 games). Seeing as Dach emerged then as the Canadiens’ second-line centre (with some seeing him as the No. 1 centre of the future), it’s clear Newhook has the potential to play down the middle too.
Canadiens a Crapshoot Below Top Line
Ironically, the problem is the Canadiens are projected to be too healthy to start 2024-25 for him to get a shot there. Between Dvorak, Dach, Evans and Nick Suzuki, the Canadiens have no room for anyone else. More to the point, with Joel Armia having re-established himself as a Top-12 (if not Top-9) forward in the organization after having gotten cut to start 2023-24, there’s really no room at all. That’s especially true if the Canadiens decide to keep the deserving, yet waiver-exempt Joshua Roy up in the NHL next season (and they should).
If the first line of Suzuki, Slafkovsky and Cole Caufield stays intact (and it should), that leaves 11 players vying for nine spots. That’s all fine and good under certain hypothetical circumstances:
- No prospects earn spots out of training camp (not counting Roy as a prospect).
- The Canadiens go with seven defensemen, despite the organizational logjam there.
- They’re comfortable putting one of Josh Anderson and Brendan Gallagher on the fourth line (despite their exorbitant cap hits).
Unfortunately, the last point runs counter to common sense and past experience. Even though Anderson suffered through a horrible season, the Canadiens seem committed to continuing to try with him based on his upside as a forward with a unique combination of size and speed. They’ve tried just about everything to get him going, without success. So, it stands to reason, they’ll give him a chance beside Dach.
Newhook should in theory get that other spot on the second line. Suddenly you’re down to eight forwards and six spots remaining and you’d still like to believe Roy not only stays in the mix but is put in a position to succeed. That means putting him on the third line, and, seeing as he enjoyed the most success playing with Joel Armia, the latter should be deployed there as well, with Dvorak being the likeliest centre in such a situation.
The Case to Trade Christian Dvorak
That puts Gallagher and his $6.5 million hit, the third-highest on the team, on the fourth line, which won’t happen, especially with him having ended the season as strongly as he did. The only reasonable solution is to take Dvorak out of the equation, taking advantage of his early return from injury to trade him this offseason (for example).
Such a trade would have a positive domino effect on the rest of the roster. Newhook would first taking over as third-line centre. All of a sudden, you can reunite the team’s end-of-season second line of him, Armia and Gallagher, who had replaced the injured Roy there. With Newhook no longer on the actual second line, you can move Roy up to play with Dach and presumably Anderson. While Roy would no longer be playing with Armia, playing with a proven play-driving forward in Dach should more than compensate for the inconvenience.
On top of everything else, based on the proven offensive capabilities of Dach and Newhook down the middle, it gives the Canadiens two hypothetical second lines (to go with their first). Oddly enough, by losing Dvorak, the Canadiens would actually add to their depth, as they would no longer have to resort to building a line around him with spare parts.
With Armia and Gallagher, Newhook showed he can help a line compete as a whole greater than the sum of its parts. In contrast, Dvorak has spent the last three seasons moving from trying to find his place in the lineup to getting put on the shelf and back again, without gaining any traction. In fact, his point and goal totals have decreased each season. As a result, with one more left under contract at $4.45 million, he’s unlikely to be re-signed.
The same is true of Armia ($3.4 million). The difference is Armia just hit a new career-high 17 goals. With higher expectations heading into 2024-25, the Canadiens have to assume he’s simply got more to offer, whereas Newhook has effectively rendered Dvorak obsolete (with exception to in the dot, Dvorak having just won 57.8% of his faceoffs to Newhook’s 46.5%). However, safe assumption: Keeping someone with a $4.45 million cap hit on simply to take faceoffs is generally not how winning franchises run their organizations.
It’s admittedly easier said than done. However, under similar circumstances, to make roster room, general manager Kent Hughes traded Mike Hoffman, who similarly had struggled to fit in with the Canadiens, last offseason. No one anticipated Hughes managing to pull that off, especially with as much grace as he did. So, perhaps a victim of his own success, he must make trading Dvorak a priority this offseason. Whether or not he pulls it off remains to be seen, but it would definitely solve a lot of problems. Everyone must see that at least.