Decimated down the middle in 2023-24, the Montreal Canadiens relied on centre Jake Evans to take on increased responsibility and he responded in kind. If there was any justice in the world, Evans would be rewarded for coming through, but, as it stands, he’s more likely to be an odd man out once the dust settles.
As unfair as it sounds, the NHL is a business and the only game that matters come contract time is the one of numbers. Nick Suzuki is firmly entrenched as the Canadiens’ No. 1 centre. Kirby Dach is set to return (and hopefully stay healthy), having earned the No. 2 spot out of training camp last season. Finally, Alex Newhook has made a case to similarly be played down the middle. With Joshua Roy having emerged as a top-six option on the wing, there’s a good case to be made the Canadiens should push Newhook to the middle of the ice permanently to add to the team’s depth and make them more competitive overall.
Jake Evans vs. Christian Dvorak
So, it could come down to Evans and Christian Dvorak for the fourth-line spot. Neither one is necessarily a bad option, but Evans’ $1.7 million cap hit probably makes Dvorak ($4.45 million) the ideal one to get traded this offseason. Regardless, neither one is a long-term solution at the position, each projected to hit unrestricted free agency in 2025.
Related: Canadiens Must Solve Christian Dvorak Conundrum at Centre
Between the two, primarily by virtue of Dvorak’s cap hit and his inability to find his niche over his three seasons in Montreal, Evans is clearly the better bet to be re-signed. That doesn’t mean anyone should be rushing to put money on the possibility, general manager Kent Hughes least of all.
Evans is Dvorak’s mirror-universe counterpart in more ways than one. They have the same build for all intents and purposes, but one’s Canadian. One’s American. Taken at opposite ends of the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, Dvorak has failed to live up to expectations, especially with the Canadiens, while Evans has risen to the occasion more than once. 2023-24 is a great example. Evans played 82 games on a team ravaged by injury (including to Dvorak). One unfortunate byproduct of those injuries is Evans was forced to play above his weight.
To his credit Evans responded with seven goals and 28 points. The problem is, at times he served as the team’s de facto second-line centre, playing between Sean Monahan and Josh Anderson, and those totals aren’t going to move the needle all that much for the ice time he was getting (a career-high 16:01 per game, compared to 14:29 in 2022-23).
Clock Ticking on Evans’ Time with Canadiens
Now, Evans was mostly deployed with Anderson and Brendan Gallagher, both of whom are far removed from their respective scoring primes. Anderson, Evans’ most-common linemate, struggled significantly regardless of the line on which he played. That marriage in the end could just as much have hindered Evans as helped Anderson. Who knows how much more Evans could have produced with better linemates?
Ultimately, you’re forced to play the cards you’re dealt though, and Evans nevertheless benefitted overall from the increase in ice time. He still needed to do a lot more to so much as stay in the conversation, especially with a prospect like Owen Beck coming up, with hypothetical designs on effectively replacing him eventually as a defensive-minded pivot.
Maybe the Canadiens give Beck a year to acclimate to life as a professional in the American Hockey League. That honestly seems downright practical, but, with only a single year left under contract, Evans is under the gun to prove he has a lot more to offer. If the Habs are even the slightest bit healthier than they were last season, he’s unlikely to get the chance.
It’s a good thing for the Canadiens that Evans’ contract isn’t coming due this summer. He’d have a good case to demand more money and he’d have earned it to a degree. And, more to the point, the Habs would have had a hard time justifying a decision not to re-sign him in the face of heightened expectations to compete for a playoff spot.
This past season reinforced that Dvorak doesn’t fit on this team. And, whereas he has failed to find his niche with the Canadiens, Evans cemented his status as a reliable fourth-line centre (with a career 53.2% faceoff percentage to boot). Taking into account how hard it might be to move Dvorak this offseason, Evans could end up a victim of his own success instead.
For any team with serious Stanley Cup aspirations looking for a responsible bottom-six centre, Evans checks a lot of boxes. Who wouldn’t want him, especially at his current cap hit? The Canadiens most definitely should, if circumstances were different, that is.
