The Montreal Canadiens are close to being done re-signing all their players. Now that newly acquired Alex Newhook is secured, Jesse Ylonen is the only player that remains unsigned. Once he is signed, they will have 26 players on their active roster and need to move at least three players to be at the maximum. Currently, they have eight defencemen and 18 forwards signed, not including goaltender Cayden Primeau; the tricky part will be deciding who goes to their American Hockey League (AHL) affiliate, the Laval Rocket. Only Juraj Slafkovsky and Rafael Harvey-Pinard are waiver-exempt for the forwards; for the defence, Kayden Guhle, Arber Xhekaj, Jordan Harris and Jason Barron are all waiver-exempt.
With six players that can easily pass from Laval to Montreal anytime, you think the decision would be easy. It won’t be the defencemen who all played a significant role last season, and management will likely want them to do it again. Slafkovsky will probably have the inside track for the forwards due to management wanting him to move forward with the Canadiens. This leaves Harvey-Pinard as a likely candidate to start the season in Laval.
Canadiens Harvey-Pinard Makes Most of Opportunity
With the Canadiens decimated by injuries, quite a few Rocket players were called up to Montreal last season. Harvey-Pinard was one of them, and he made the most of his opportunity by scoring 14 goals in the 34 games he played. Injuries to Cole Caufield, Josh Anderson, Jonathan Drouin and Kirby Dach gave him a chance to get top-six minutes playing alongside Nick Suzuki, giving him the benefit of the ice time and the skill of the Canadiens captain. Except for a 15-game stretch where he only scored two goals and four points, he was a very consistent scorer. He even scored a hat trick against the Columbus Blue Jackets on March 25, 2023.
Harvey-Pinard was on fire in Montreal for most of his time there and quickly became a fan favourite. He was a shining light in what was becoming a very dark season for the Canadiens as they plummeted to the bottom of the standings – not that they were high up, to begin with. He averaged just over 17 minutes of ice time per game; even when some players like Anderson and Dach returned, he was playing regular five-on-five and power play (PP) minutes. The only thing against Harvey-Pinard is his high, unsustainable shooting percentage (SH%) which was around 24%, which will be very hard to maintain next season even if he gets top-six minutes.
Numbers Game Puts Harvey-Pinard at a Disadvantage
There is no question that Harvey-Pinard did everything he could last season to earn a starting spot with the Canadiens in 2023-24. He was solid at both ends of the ice and didn’t look out of place playing in the faster NHL. With 31 goals and 87 points in his last 129 games in Laval, he is ready to move on from his stay in the AHL. Some players can dominate the AHL and then fizzle when they hit the NHL, but Harvey-Pinard, in his small sample size, has shown that he at least deserves a chance to get a more extended look in the best pro league in hockey. With a healthy team, however, the Canadiens are running out of room for their young players. Bad contracts of older NHL players are also blocking the way, with guys like Mike Hoffman and Joel Armia taking positions from more youthful, more skilled players.
Related: Where Canadiens’ Harvey-Pinard Fits for 2023-24
You can argue that the Habs can waive Hoffman and Armia and bury them in Laval, but in the case of Hoffman, he is in the last year of his contract and can be used at the trade deadline to acquire assets. Burying him in Laval only hurts any trade value. Granted, his big contract and lack of production have made him a burden, and some fans want him fired into the sun, but he still scored 29 goals over two seasons with half of those on the PP. He is still valuable to a team looking for PP depth and a deep playoff run.
Armia could be waived and no one will bat an eye, but when healthy, he is one of the better penalty killers on the team, and the Canadiens do need better specialty team players. Slafkovsky could also be sent to Laval; he is waiver exempt, and many feel he would develop better there. Unfortunately, I don’t see management doing that because it might seem like a step backward, especially with all the work he has put in this offseason. This puts Harvey-Pinard in a tough spot. He deserves a place on the team, but because of the numbers and players that will probably be ahead of him on the depth chart, he could start the season in Laval.
Expectations Need to be Lowered for Harvey-Pinard
Even with all the players and hurdles Harvey-Pinard needs to jump to make the Canadiens, he deserves to be there and should be on the opening-day roster. How this will happen is yet to be seen, but if he does make the team, fans will need to lower their expectations just a little. With 14 goals in 34 games last season, many feel he could be a 20-30 goal scorer like Brendan Gallagher became. This is not a surprise considering they play the same style and are often compared to each other, with Harvey-Pinard even nicknamed Lavallagher.
Harvey-Pinard did have chemistry with Suzuki, but with Caufield back, Sean Monahan re-signed, Dach and Anderson healthy, and the arrival of Newhook, there is little to no room in the top six. A third-line role is more of a fit for Harvey-Pinard next season, but if he plays there, it may hinder his chance at a 20-goal season. Slafkovsky also plays a significant role; if management wants him to play more minutes, he could be used on the top line with Caufield and Suzuki or the second line with Dach and Newhook. With the team healthy, Harvey-Pinard will probably see his PP minutes cut, which hinders his ability to score more goals than last season.
Harvey-Pinard could be the next Gallagher and become a 30-goal scorer, or he could be a solid bottom-six player with top-six upside. With only his 34 games last season and injuries to other players ahead of him on the depth chart to go off of currently, it will be hard to gauge what type of career is ahead of him. As media and fans, we should lower our expectations a little, and if he can repeat his success from 2022-23, it should be considered a positive. If he truly is what he looked like last season and improves to score 20 goals in a third-line role, then we know he has more in him and can raise those expectations for the 2024-25 season.