Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes wasted no time setting up his salary structure upfront. He worked with the contract former GM Marc Bergevin had signed Nick Suzuki to and made it clear in all negotiations with his forwards that no one would get a higher cap hit. In the media availability following Cole Caufield’s eight-year extension, the Hughes even confirmed it was important that Caufield earn less than the captain. It’s likely because Suzuki is the team’s primary leader and most productive player.
On the blue line, there is no such structure so far, and since three young defensemen will be restricted free agents (RFAs) come July 1, establishing a frame of reference would be a good idea. Kaiden Guhle is, as things stand, the Canadiens’ best-established young blue liner and he should be the highest paid of his cohort. Things might change when Lane Huston and Logan Mailloux establish themselves as NHLers and have played through their entry-level contracts, but that’s a discussion for another day; another year in fact.
The Current Restricted Free Agents
Come July 1, three blueliners will be RFAs: Arber Xhekaj, Justin Barron, and Mattias Norlinder. This is rather interesting because all three are at different stages of their careers, which will of course have an impact on negotiations.
Norlinder was drafted in the third round of the 2019 Draft and played three seasons in Sweden before finally crossing the pond. Since then, he has played six NHL games and 123 American Hockey League outings. So far, he has failed to meet the lofty expectations that were placed on him. The Athletic’s Corey Pronman described him as follows in a 2021 prospects rankings:
“Norlinder’s toolkit is quite interesting as a mobile defenseman with legit offensive skill. He can create offense with his feet, puck handling, vision from both ends of the rink and hard point shot. When I talk to scouts about Norlinder, they see the talent but there is an ultimate question about what role he fills in the NHL. He’s not so good offensively that you can easily project into an NHL power play, and his defending has been up and down over the years, so as a small defender he may not be a penalty killer.” (from: “NHL Pipeline Rankings: No. 12 Montreal Canadiens have legit talent in Nick Suzuki and beyond”, The Athletic, September 1, 2021).
Nearly three years later, he has 30 points in 123 games in the AHL and when 2023 first-round pick David Reinbacher came over from Switzerland to end his season with the Laval Rocket, he pushed Norlinder out of the lineup. In his first complete season in the AHL he put up 19 points in 67 games and this season he only played 50 games and notched nine points, going from a 0.30 point-per-game clip to a 0.18 clip. As such, Norlinder will find himself at the bottom of the food chain, especially since he’s a left-shot blueliner, a position that is incredibly overcrowded in Montreal.
Barron was acquired in the Artturi Lehkonen trade and is a mobile right-shot defenseman. So far, he has failed to establish himself as an NHL player. Over the last three years, he has split his time between the NHL and the AHL, thanks to the numerous injuries suffered by the Canadiens’ defense corps. He has failed to win a permanent role so far, but it’s impossible to say he hasn’t progressed.
Related: How Will Justin Barron’s Contract Fit in the Canadiens’ salary structure?
For the first time this upcoming season, he will have to go through waivers to join the Rocket in the AHL and it is unlikely Hughes will risk losing him for nothing. This means he will probably spend the season in the NHL by default.
Still, that will not give him a regular spot in the formation, he could easily end up being the seventh defenseman. He is still higher than Norlinder on the food chain though, and his salary should show that.
The last RFA we need to discuss is Xhekaj. The undrafted product surprised everyone when he got a contract at the end of the training camp in October, 2021. The Canadiens then sent him back to his junior team where he played his final season. Of course, he surprised everyone at camp in 2022, fully displaying his mean streak and stealing the show in a rookies’ tournament game when he owned an Ottawa Senators player.
After a strong camp, he stayed with the Canadiens and played 51 games thanks to the rotation system implemented by head coach Martin St. Louis. His season was cut short because of a shoulder injury which required surgery.
This season, Xhekaj got his first taste of the AHL as he was sent down to work on the defensive side of his game. The youngster took it on the chin, rolled up his sleeves, put on his working boots, and got to work. Along the way, he showed he could be a good partner for the young Mailloux. He eventually returned to the NHL, playing 44 games and gathering 10 points in the process along with 81 penalty minutes. In his 17 games with the Rocket, he put up 11 points and racked up 34 penalty minutes. For the second time in as many years, his season was cut short because he needed surgery on his other shoulder.
Xhekaj is not just about the points though. He’s a rugged defenseman who will not hesitate to hold the players on the ice accountable if they take liberties with his teammates. His sole presence makes his teammates feel bigger and tougher. A player who can do that and play hockey is a rare breed; that’s why the media started calling him a “unicorn” and why Hughes has repeatedly said he is not looking to trade him. Of the three RFAs discussed here, Xhekaj probably holds the most negotiation power, even though his two surgically-repaired shoulders could be seen as a concern.
Now, About Kaiden Guhle
Just like Hughes used Suzuki’s contract as a guide in his negotiations with other forwards, he should use Guhle’s one for the blueliners. David Savard and Mike Matheson are not included in this conversation because chances are, by the time the Canadiens are real contenders, the two veterans will be long gone.
There are a few reasons why Guhle’s contract should serve as the measuring stick. In his rookie season, Guhle was somewhat thrown into the deep end when injuries hit the team, and as a result, he handed up on the top pairing. While some thought putting a rookie there would be a disaster, he proved he could handle it and then some.
He easily won St. Louis’ confidence and in both of his seasons, he averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. In his 82-career NHL games, he has racked up 40 points — 22 in 70 games in his first season and 18 in just 44 games in his second. This amounts to 26 points projected on 82 games for his rookie season and 34 in his sophomore season. He is a solid producer and he will keep on improving as he has yet to reach his ceiling.
It’s not the offensive contribution that stands out and is the most exciting though — it’s his decision-making. When he is on the ice, he looks way beyond his years and he always takes the time to make the right decision and the right play. He is a reassuring presence on the ice and will do whatever is asked of him in any circumstances.
Now we’re down to the fun part…say the Canadiens want to sign him to an eight-year extension. They’ll be betting on the future for sure, but they’ll protect themselves from a huge salary increase should Guhle have an incredible season. When the Florida Panthers extended Mike Matheson in October, 2017, his offensive output had been 17 points and they gave him an eight-year deal with a $4.875 million cap hit. That was seven years ago, however, and the market value has likely changed.
Offensive defensemen tend to capture higher paydays. The Vancouver Canucks’ Quinn Hughes, for instance, has a $7.85 million cap hit, while the Colorado Avalanche’s Cale Makar has a massive $9 million cap hit. However, Guhle is not an offensive defenseman so we should be looking at two-way defenders . Shea Theodore has a $5.2 million cap hit and when he signed his contract in September, 2018, he had put up a career-high of 29 points the season before. Clearly, the Vegas Golden Knights believed in him. Devon Toews was given a bridge contract by the Avalanche with a $4.1 million cap hit. This is the kind of deal Hughes should be looking for with Guhle, not so much the bridge part, but the cap hit part.
If Hughes manages to sign Guhle to a deal with a reasonable cap hit, he’ll be able to negotiate with the above-mentioned RFAs with a very recent comparable to show them. None of them has the tools Guhle has and hopefully, both the players and their agents would be able to see that.
The importance of signing Guhle to a reasonable contract is even greater now that the Canadiens have potential offensive defensemen in the system. When their entry-level deals are done, expect both Hutson and Mailloux to command huge raises (if they pan out, that is) and Guhle’s reasonable cap hit may just be where the negotiations start.
