It’s time to accept the possibility pending-restricted free agent (RFA) Denis Gurianov has outlived his usefulness to the Montreal Canadiens. After all, if not now, before the Canadiens have to re-sign him, then when? This is their best opportunity to walk away, if that’s the route they want to go.
Truth be told, Gurianov’s usefulness should have come into question right from the get-go. And, in fairness, few probably assumed the Canadiens were getting a ready-made top-six forward when they sent pending-unrestricted free agent Evgeny Dadonov to the Dallas Stars in exchange just prior to the trade deadline.
Related: What the Canadiens Can Get for Dadonov at 2023 Trade Deadline
It was of course a worthwhile gamble, in that there was little chance the Canadiens were going to bring back Dadonov (or that he even wanted to return). After all, when you score 18 points in 50 games, as a pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) no less, you’re not exactly giving the impression you want to stay. You’re certainly not making yourself irresistible to would-be suitors, your current team included.
Gurianov vs. Dadonov
For some context into Dadonov’s actual skill level, he started off his Stars tenure with eight points in his first eight games. That’s what he can do when he’s put in the right situation and he’s firing on all cylinders. He’s since cooled off considerably though, with 13 points in 20 overall.
For his part, Gurianov has eight points in 21 games with the Canadiens. He hasn’t been horrible, especially when you consider he had scored just nine points in 43 games with the Stars this season. At his peak with the Canadiens, he had scored his eight points in his first 13 games, but has since gone scoreless.
Needless to say, Gurianov hasn’t lived up to his billing as 2015 first-round pick (12th overall). At one point, it looked like he was on his way, with a 20-goal regular season in 2019-20 (before the pandemic). He also added nine goals and 17 points in 27 playoff games once play resumed and the Stars reached the Stanley Cup Final.
He’s since disappointed, obviously. If you’re the Stars, you wouldn’t typically give up a 25-year-old former first-round pick for a pending UFA, especially one like Dadonov, who hadn’t been performing himself. Ultimately, you have to believe the Stars didn’t feel like they were losing much, taking a gamble that Dadonov might prove to be a short-term upgrade. For all intents and purposes, they were right.
Canadiens Still with Little to Lose
From the Canadiens’ perspective, they similarly had little to lose. Taking a chance on an admittedly talented RFA, giving up just a UFA that wasn’t working out in exchange? That’s a trade you make whenever you get the opportunity. It’s not like anyone was beating down general manager Kent Hughes’ door trying to acquire Dadonov, anyway. So, getting an NHLer instead of wish-upon-a-shooting-star mid-round draft pick was relatively impressive.
All that to say, the Canadiens must cut their losses with Gurianov and let him walk, because it’s gotten to the point where they have to consider the domino effect. For the purely offensive-minded Gurianov to be his most effective, you have to give him top-six ice time. That’s top-six ice time you’d potentially be taking away from fellow right-wingers and prospects like Jesse Ylonen… and further down the line: Joshua Roy.
Now, there is of course a hope that this upcoming offseason the Canadiens trade Mike Hoffman, who similarly hasn’t proven to be a good fit. If they manage to do that, it would open up a spot on the right, potentially for Gurianov. However, they’d be right back where they started, conceivably having to give someone who doesn’t fit in ice time simply to showcase him to hopefully trade him and repeat the process.
There’s no point in so much as taking the risk. The Canadiens would be holding onto some misguided hope Gurianov can suddenly realize his potential when he hasn’t yet in what are supposed to be the prime production years of his career.
Bad Asset Management, Good Decision-Making for Habs
True, Gurianov is an asset and letting him walk for nothing might not sit well with some. However, they only got Dadonov because he came back the other way in the Shea Weber deal with the Vegas Golden Knights, when the Habs were simply trying to rid themselves of the latter’s deal. Dadonov’s was a contract the Knights had tried to dump before to the Anaheim Ducks, only to be thwarted by a no-trade clause.
The fact is, had the Canadiens been able to trade Weber’s deal without getting anything in return, no one would have batted an eyelash. In fact, most probably would have taken the nothing and run, thinking Hughes had just committed larceny. It wouldn’t have been the first time either.
Truth be told, the Gurianov acquisition was still a good one for Hughes. The 2023 trade deadline not so much, seeing as that one move was the highlight for him and the Canadiens, and, whenever you’re getting rid of a player you or anyone else doesn’t really want (Dadonov), you can’t really expect anything much in exchange. Gurianov isn’t. So, don’t look at it like the Canadiens would be letting an asset go for nothing. Look at it like they didn’t end up getting anything for Weber.
Now, there’s still a chance the Canadiens extend Gurianov a qualifying offer, because it is uncommon for teams to walk away from RFAs, especially RFAs with his pedigree. However, the Habs simply can’t look at Gurianov for what he was in principle, only what he is in practice instead: someone in the way of players with more of a future with the organization. If the Canadiens think long about it, it should be hard to justify extending Gurianovs’ Habs future past the earliest point at which they can just walk away. That’s this summer.