The Montreal Canadiens’ season is more than half over, and to mark the midway point of the campaign, general manager (GM) Kent Hughes provided an update on the team. As a team below .500 and with one of the worst records when it comes to wins in regulation time, it’s no secret they have done more losing than winning this season, but the team remains on track with the rebuild.
Related: Jayden Struble Changing Canadiens’ Rebuild Plans
It is no secret that the Canadiens are in desperate need of some elite offensive skill at forward. Hughes could be in the market to fill that need and has the assets to find the missing piece either via trade, the draft table or even unrestricted free agency. That being said, they have taken a step forward in their rebuild, albeit a small one as they sit in that “mushy middle” between a playoff spot and a bottom-five draft pick. Now at the midway point of the season, we can see if the rebuild is trending in the right direction.
Canadiens Are Improving
No, seriously, there is improvement. Just because it isn’t a dramatic immediate turnaround from last season’s stats doesn’t mean there hasn’t been some improvement. Last season the Canadiens sat in the cellar in every category. They finished 26th in the NHL with 227 goals for (GF), 29th with 305 goals against (GA), the NHL’s 29th ranked power play (PP) at 16.1% and the 29th penalty killing (PK) unit at a woeful 72.7%. This left them with the 29th-ranked goal differential (GD) at minus-78.
While the Canadiens were able to keep games close last season, they had a difficult time winning them. They lacked the firepower, partially due to injuries as well as a lack of elite skill. However, they did show desire, yet it just wasn’t enough as they took far too many penalties and when given a PP, couldn’t finish. Improvements in those two areas alone would have had them far closer to selecting 15th than they were in 2022-23 when they ended up with the fifth overall pick, where they selected David Reinbacher.
This season, they have earned more wins, but they tend to do so by needing to claw back into games as they lack the consistency necessary to compete over an entire 60-minute match. The scoring this season is at 2.76 GF per game, which over 82 games would add up to 218 GF, which is nearly identical to last season’s rate. The biggest change is an improvement defensively. This season’s GA per game average is 3.45, which over 82 games would add up to 282 GA, a drop of 23 goals over the season. That doesn’t seem like a big improvement, however, that would have placed them 23rd in the NHL. Allowing fewer goals has allowed them to play tighter games and win at a higher rate than last season. There is still lots of work to do in this rebuild, but it is trending upwards.
Canadiens Injury Issues Continue
At least Montreal’s fans can count on being a league leader in one category, injuries. After leading the NHL in man games lost (MGL) for the last two seasons, things have begun to improve on the injury front, statistically speaking. This season has seen Kirby Dach lost for the year after only four periods of play, Christian Dvorak losing the rest of the season due to a pectoral tear, and long-term injuries to Alex Newhook and a smattering of injuries taking weeks off of a half dozen other players. Despite all that, the Canadiens have dropped from the top spot in MGL to 10th.
Canadiens at the Mid-Point
Montreal is a giant question mark. There is no consistency yet with the team, halfway through the season and the Canadiens have yet to win more than two consecutive games while they have had multiple three-game winless streaks. This lack of consistency is an issue that is natural in a rebuild, but one that does cause concern as they seem like world beaters on one night and door mats on others.
Such as when they convincingly beat the Dallas Stars in Dallas. Or, like when they beat the New York Rangers in a shootout, after blowing a three-goal lead that is. But then, they put up a stinker, suffering a loss on home ice to the NHL’’s worst club, the San Jose Sharks. A loss where the Canadiens were outplayed from start to finish. What made this loss sting even more was the fact the Sharks had convincingly lost 12 consecutive games in regulation, only two of which were by two goals or less.
“We need to make some growth, if you want to be in meaningful games at the end of the year, you have to start winning a couple of games in a row and carrying that forward. You can’t go up and down, up and down; it’s just a matter of consistently bringing that effort. And when you get that going, it’s hard to stop when you get that momentum going within your group.”
– Brendan Gallagher
It may not feel like it, but even though the Habs are only a few points out of a playoff position, there are several teams between them and that spot, and they still sit near the bottom of the standings. If the draft were today, they would pick seventh overall. If they can find some form of consistency, even if only as individual players, the consistent outcomes as a team would surely follow.
Canadiens’ Core Progressing
The mid-way point of the season allows for a large enough sample size to see if their players, specifically their core players, are progressing in their development. Starting in goal, this may be the area most directly responsible for the improved GA rate over last season. Samuel Montembeault is seen as the starter and, at the very least, the starter to build around for the next few years. His .907 save percentage (SV%) is a solid improvement over the .901 SV% last season and his sub .900 SV% for his entire career up to that season. He is proving to be a capable starter, or at the very least, a solid 1B goaltender who can play a large role in a two-goalie tandem system. He’s even been stealing games for the Canadiens.
Unfortunately for those fans hoping for Macklin Celebrini at the 2024 Entry Draft, Montembeault is almost single-handedly playing them into a worse draft spot. A rags-to-riches goalie story of a local kid acquired via waivers is fun, but not when it pushes your club further away from a top-five draft pick.
Team captain Nick Suzuki is another core player and one who has consistently been improving every season. Last season, he finished first on the team with 66 points, this season he remains the top point scorer at 35, putting him on pace for close to 69 points. He has also made improvements in his physicality and his possession stats going from a Corsi For of 49.5% to a respectable 55.2%, as a top-line player. What may be helping him there is his dramatic improvements in the faceoff circle, winning 55% of his draws, which is a leap up from last season’s 47.3%. He has also dressed in every Canadiens game played since 2020-21.
Suzuki’s linemates on the top line are also finding improvements. Juraj Slafkovsky looked out of place in the NHL last season, even in a bottom-six role. This season sees him on the top line after a slow start to the year, on pace for 30 points and showing his physical side, making him a great puck retrieval player. The other linemate, Cole Caufield, has been the target of some disappointment as he is on pace for 23 goals, less than last season’s total, but his overall game, including his playmaking, makes him a more complete player and has him on pace for 56 points, a career-high.
While Mike Matheson is the top defenceman and is on pace for a career-high 59 points this season, he isn’t part of the future core but is playing an important role in insulating and mentoring them. The Canadiens are fostering a positive working environment, but also one that pushes the players through internal competition, especially on the blue line. The young defenders making large strides are numerous; Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris, Jayden Struble, Arber Xhekaj, Logan Mailloux, and Justin Barron are the ones at the professional level battling for a roster spot with Montreal. Then there’s the next wave of prospects led by Lane Hutson and David Reinbacher who will need an open roster position. These youngsters are making management’s decisions on who to keep very difficult, but some of them will need to be traded to make room for the others, and this is the area of strength Hughes will use as trade bait to fill needs, likely scoring needs.
It’s been a little over two years since Hughes arrived as the new GM, and so far, he has maintained his patience, sticking to his rebuild plan. His work is starting to pay off as the team is showing signs of improvement, and there are still many good young prospects yet to arrive. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and for Hughes to build an empire that can end the franchise’s longest Stanley Cup drought, he will have to make some key decisions at the trade deadline less than two months away. The team’s performance this season, while an improvement over last season, leaves much to be desired for those hoping to earn a playoff position. For those fans wanting to see the rebuild progress, however, there is much to be excited about.