The chance of a future between the Montreal Canadiens and forward Mike Hoffman beyond the 2023-24 season is infinitesimally small at best. So, why wait to cut the cord… or, more accurately, cut him, demoting him to the American Hockey League?
Really, the only thing preventing general manager Kent Hughes from trading Hoffman is his less-than-ideal $4.5 million cap hit (for the production he brings). However, the closer the 2024 trade deadline gets, the likelier it is Hughes finds a partner of some sort, especially with Hoffman heading toward unrestricted free agency next summer.
Hoffman Not Long for Canadiens Lineup
Logic simply dictates Hughes will find more takers than he has in the past for the offensive-minded forward without term past this season acting as an anchor. That’s one of the reasons why Hoffman’s contract may not necessarily count as one of the worst on the team, even though he could quite possibly be the player Hughes wants to lose the most.
For example, the Canadiens lack goaltending depth. So, Jake Allen is far from completely expendable. Meanwhile, regarding the log jam up front, Joel Armia may have another year under contract, but his cap hit is more manageable. Finally, even though Brendan Gallagher has an exorbitant one of $6.5 million, not only is he a leader on this team, but he has a connection to the city and fans after a decade as a Hab that Hoffman will never be able to replicate.
Hoffman just isn’t a good fit and he never really delivered on what was advertised as someone who would be a boon to the power play. He did finish tied for third in power-play points last season with 10 and tied for second in 2021-22 with 13 (both with Cole Caufield), but two things:
- At his peak, in 2018-19 with the Florida Panthers, he had 35.
- The Canadiens ranked 29th and 31st in power-play efficiency his first two years here.
Now, it’s obviously not all on Hoffman. He’s always been more of a complementary piece than someone who should be expected to drive offense all on his own, but he obviously hasn’t fit as argued above nor does he really fit moving forward, this time due to the aforementioned lack of roster space.
Hoffman vs. Dadonov
The Canadiens just have too many NHL-caliber forwards, with 14 in line to compete for spots out of training, and that’s excluding depth-forward Rem Pitlick and rookie Sean Farrell. True, certain supposed locks are on two-way contracts (Juraj Slafkovsky) and are even waiver-exempt (Slafkovsky and Rafael Harvey-Pinard), but there is simply no logic in keeping Hoffman in the NHL at the expense of at least Harvey-Pinard, when the latter has shown much more versatility in being able to play up and down the lineup, is still young, with his continued development being critical, and has more of a future with the team.
Related: Why Shouldn’t Canadiens Play Slafkovsky in AHL in 2023-24?
The one reason the Canadiens might in theory, though? To build up Hoffman’s value to hopefully trade him, similar to what transpired with Evgeny Dadonov, when he was a UFA last season. Dadonov played a relatively respectable 14:32 per game (more than Gallagher’s 14:17) despite scoring an underwhelming 18 points in 50 games, before getting sent to the Dallas Stars for Denis Gurianov.
Now, the trade wasn’t a bad one. The Canadiens got back a youngish, former first-round pick, still with potential. However, it’s not like Gurianov was guaranteed to work out with the Canadiens, as he had run out of chances to produce consistently with the Stars. As one might have expected, the same trademark inconsistency came over with him to the Habs.
So, especially with Gurianov not having been re-signed as a restricted free agent, it was a case of getting about as much as you gave. However, it’s not exactly no harm, no foul, seeing as the Canadiens shouldn’t expect to get an asset of Harvey-Pinard’s caliber back for Hoffman (notwithstanding how Harvey-Pinard was admittedly a seventh-round pick in 2019).
Logically Canadiens Must Bury Hoffman
Think of it like this: Right now, the Canadiens have a legitimate, tangible roster player in Harvey-Pinard looking to build on a successful rookie season. The opportunity cost of, for example, giving his spot to Hoffman simply to hopefully get a mid-round pick back that might turn into someone similar, emphasis on “might?” It isn’t worth it, as you’d only be taking what you do have in hand for granted.
The logical solution is right there. Send Hoffman down to the AHL take the $3.35 million cap penalty in stride, especially as the Canadiens are projected to have the space once Carey Price presumably goes on long-term injured reserve. That gives his spot to someone more deserving of one, while keeping him in the fold (assuming no one claims him off waivers, which would honestly be ideal) in case they run into injury problems… again.
As the Canadiens clearly have designs on making a playoff push next season, both lines of reasoning keep them competitive in principle. Remember, they re-signed Sean Monahan, which arguably shows their cards in terms of their intentions in that regard. And, if they are in a position to at least make the playoffs, they’re not going to be dealing a key piece like Monahan at the deadline. With that in mind, they’re going to have to ditch this seller’s mentality eventually. There’s no better time than the present with Hoffman.