Montreal Canadiens forward Rafael Harvey-Pinard found himself right back in the bottom six against the Seattle Kraken on March 24. This, after he got another, eventually scoreless, one-game audition in the top six in the wake of the Joshua Roy injury.
Related: Canadiens Justifiably Give Harvey-Pinard Another Top-Six Shot
If Harvey-Pinard has indeed run out of chances there, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to change the team’s mind about him moving forward, which is unfortunate. So, it’s not like he’s going to be put in a position to end 2023-24 strong (or benefit in such an instance).
Paradoxically, the player the Canadiens put in that same top-six spot against the Kraken, Brendan Gallagher, is similarly unlikely to benefit from a hypothetically strong final stretch, either. Gallagher obviously has something to offer the Habs the balance of his cost-ineffective deal, but, based on his lack of production the last few seasons, scoring isn’t it.
If everyone is honest with themselves, Gallagher’s not at risk of going anywhere regardless, because of the aforementioned bad contract. He’ll likely just be relegated to bottom-six status once the lineup is healthy enough (assuming he is as well). So, who actually could benefit? Here are the top five Habs who do need to get hot as the season draws to a close:
5. Josh Anderson
Josh Anderson falls into a similar category as Gallagher. The difference is, despite their respective struggles to score, management seems more resigned to the latter becoming a bottom-six fixture. However, unless Anderson shows them something this last little while, history may be on the verge of repeating itself.
Gallagher is two years older… and it was two seasons ago that Gallagher’s offensive woes truly took hold. Granted, they’re built differently and Gallagher has had more wear and tear in his career, but, bottom line, if Anderson isn’t putting up points (18 points in 66 games), well, he isn’t putting up points. And, if he isn’t putting up points, you can’t justify deploying him in the top six (conveniently ignoring the fact he’s never scored more than 32 in a Canadiens uniform).
The days of Anderson fetching something significant on the trade market are probably over. The days of him fetching anything without a sweetener going back the other way are probably too, based on his $5.5 million cap hit and the three seasons left on his contract. So, the hope of Canadiens management in his regard must be that he ends the season on a high.
Due to Anderson’s unique skillset as a speedy power forward, it’s clear the Canadiens would prefer he gets going rather than not. That’s true for just about anyone, though. In Anderson’s specific case, he’s probably staying put no matter what. So, they’re probably looking for something to grab onto as far as his output is concerned (as much as if not more than he is).
4. Samuel Montembeault
The Canadiens have all but officially anointed Samuel Montembeault their No. 1 goalie. First, they extended him for an additional three years. Then they traded away Jake Allen, who had logically been signed to be the team’s starter during the rebuild. However, it was after that extension got signed that Montembeault began establishing himself first as an NHL-calibre goalie… then as a more consistent goalie than Allen, one better suited to be the starter.
Now only Montembeault and Cayden Primeau remain (in the NHL), the three-goalie rotation having by all appearances taken its toll statistically. Case in point, Allen, who had earned an .892 save percentage (SV%) with the Canadiens this season, has one of .923 with the New Jersey Devils. Meanwhile, Primeau has one of .943 in three starts since the trade.
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Montembeault hasn’t been horrible per se. While his .888 SV% is mediocre to be kind, no one’s really criticizing his effort level, as it’s come against top-tier competition (Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks). However, ideally he would be able to assert himself as the team’s undisputed No. 1 with an exclamation mark these next few weeks. There’s no goaltending controversy to be clear… just a general desire for him to start next season off on the right foot.
3. Tanner Pearson
As a pending unrestricted free agent, Tanner Pearson is obviously playing for his next contract. You wouldn’t know it having looked at the games he’s played outside his fast start to the season, when he scored five points in his first five games. Since then though, he’s played 44 more games, with only seven additional points to show for his efforts.
Pearson will only be 32 to start 2024-25. So, he could have a few years left in his career. A few more points from here on out to help pad his stats would certainly go a long way towards helping him secure a next deal in the summer as opposed to, say, a professional try-out agreement come the fall.
2. Jayden Struble
Defenseman Jayden Struble’s exceeded expectations by simply inserting himself in the picture on the blue line. That’s no small feat considering the logjam above him on the depth chart on his left side (Mike Matheson, Kaiden Guhle, Arber Xhekaj, Jordan Harris).
However, it’s fair to say the 22-year-old hasn’t been as impactful as he was when he first got called up from the American Hockey League (AHL). That’s to be expected as a rookie. Just ask Xhekaj who got demoted this season after spending all of last season with the Canadiens. Xhekaj’s arguably returned a more well-rounded player and the Habs may feel Struble could use some additional seasoning with his play having hit something of a wall.
As Struble is still exempt from waivers, he could easily get cut, especially considering the sheer number of other young defensemen vying for spots. However, with the above names having effectively made the team out of training camp this season, it’s not like the Canadiens are against keeping anyone up, as long as they’ve seen enough out of them. Struble just needs to force their hand over the next little while into training camp… maybe force an offseason trade in turn.
1. Joel Armia
Few probably anticipated the Canadiens actually cutting a veteran like Joel Armia to start 2023-24. Few probably anticipated Armia taking the AHL demotion in stride like he did before he inevitably got called back up due to a string of injuries took hold, admirably making the most of his latest NHL opportunity. Now that he has though? Those same few shouldn’t be surprised if the Habs cut him again.
Is it unfair? Sure. It’s still understandable that Armia ends up a numbers-game victim, because the same circumstances surrounding his initial demotion haven’t gone away. The symptoms are even more far gone. If a presumably healthy Canadiens team is still intent on giving its young players a chance, who ends up on the chopping block up front instead? Rookie Joshua Roy, who’s exempt from waivers, when he’s arguably been the better player on that line with Armia and Alex Newhook? Maybe, but it wouldn’t be justifiable.
Even if the Canadiens decide to controversially cut the likes of relative youngsters Rafael Harvey-Pinard and/or Jesse Ylonen, though? You’ve still got farmhands like Emil Heineman and Sean Farrell knocking at the door… even prospect Owen Beck. That’s potentially more coming in than going out. Just like the Habs effectively cut Armia to make room for Ylonen last fall, it’s hard to believe they’d make Armia, heading into his last year under a contract to which Kent Hughes’ predecessor Marc Bergevin signed him, a barrier to their entry a year later.
Then you have to consider underperformers like Anderson or Gallagher, who aren’t going anywhere due to their own bad (worse) contracts. What about Newhook? What about the top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky? Don’t forget Kirby Dach and Christian Dvorak who are currently injured. Maybe some would prefer Armia over Dvorak, but a) he’s injured and unlikely to be traded as a result and b) he’s depth down the middle, where the Canadiens are otherwise thin. Finally, what about Jake Evans and Michael Pezzetta, bottom-of-the-lineup guys whose cap hits aren’t nearly as hard to swallow as Armia’s?
Put simply, there just isn’t room for an outgoing Armia… unless he starts producing more, with just one point in his last 10 games. Even then… remember Armia ended last season with 11 points in his last 17 games and still got cut to start this one, albeit after struggling for large portions of 2022-23. Something that’s gotten lost in translation is Armia didn’t get cut because he played badly, just like he hasn’t been playing badly now. Based on how he’s been playing this season, he’s still an NHL-calibre player, but he may not be one on a team in the rebuilding position the Canadiens find themselves.
Realistically, Armia can carve out a niche for himself these next few weeks and put himself in a position to play for a contract next season with the Canadiens. However, it’s a tall order when you consider his cap hit, the only spot that would be open for him being at the bottom of the lineup and his recent offensive struggles. It would be a lot easier to justify keeping him were he to suddenly start scoring again. It would be a lot easier to trade him too. One way or another, it wouldn’t hurt him to get going, even if it means going out the door.