The NHL season has ended, and the Florida Panthers are the Stanley Cup Champions for the first time in franchise history. It’s the third time in four seasons the Cup has been awarded to a team in Florida. With the season over, the next big event is the 2024 NHL Entry Draft in Las Vegas on June 28 and 29, where NHL teams will begin the two-day festivities by gathering and picking the hopeful savior of their team’s future in the first round. The Montreal Canadiens have the fifth-overall pick and will look to improve their forward group with a stud young player.
The draft is replete with high-end talent, and the hope the Canadiens get one is very high, especially if at least two defencemen go in the top four. Montreal can almost do no wrong with their pick this year, but there are some safe and risky picks to choose from.
Canadiens Made the Safe Pick Last Year
Last year’s draft will be the most controversial for the Kent Hughes era in Montreal. The second-year general manager had a chance to pick several highly-skilled forwards such as Matvei Michkov or Ryan Leonard. Instead, they went the safe route and drafted defenceman David Reinbacher. This decision surprised and angered many Habs fans hoping for a highly-skilled Michkov or the significant power-forward Leonard. Hughes planned to build the defence and goaltending by drafting Reinbacher and selecting three goaltenders in the rest of the draft. Drafting a defenceman early in the rebuild made sense because they take longer to develop than forwards. What didn’t make sense was that the next draft (this year) was heavy on top-ranked defensemen; the Canadiens could’ve easily got the forward they wanted in the 2023 draft and then the defencemen they wanted in this draft.
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Many would argue that when drafting, you always pick the best player available (BPA) and that the Canadiens are instead drafted for need. This isn’t the case in last year’s draft — Reinbacher may not have looked like the BPA to everyone else, but if the Habs were planning on going with defence, then he would be the BPA for Montreal. I understand that BPA usually means the next best prospect, no matter what position, based on skill and scouting, but teams don’t usually look at it that way. An NHL team — especially a rebuilder — considers BPA the best player available to help their team in the future. The Canadiens could’ve quickly gone with a skilled forward because they need one of those, but forwards develop much faster than defencemen. If they know the next draft is heavy on defence, then it should be easy for them to get highly-skilled forward.
Sennecke Is the Highest Risk Draft Pick
Beckett Sennecke is a tall, well-rounded, highly-skilled winger with a rare combination of size, speed, and puck skills. His potential isn’t even close to being tapped out, and he has the potential to be a genuine top-line player. Although his season wasn’t mind blowing, recording 68 points in 63 games, his playoff performance for the Oshawa Generals of the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) was huge as he scored 10 goals and 22 points in 16 games. Sennecke was a huge reason why the Generals had such great second-half success and a long playoff run. When it comes to pure skill, he is in the same group as Ivan Demidov and Macklin Celebrini; while he doesn’t have the same skill or hockey IQ as them, his size and speed put him in almost the same tier.
The biggest issue with Sennecke — and what puts him at the bottom of the top tier of forwards — is that despite his size and speed, he is still trying to find his game in his large body. He grew almost five inches in the last two seasons, and his first-half woes directly resulted from not being used to his body size on the ice. He also suffered an injury in the quarter-finals of the OHL playoffs, forcing him to miss the finals. There is no doubt about his elite skills, and he is a highlight machine, but still doesn’t have the IQ to put it all together consistently. His defensive game is also lacking; like most highly-skilled forwards, Sennecke has much to learn about the defensive side of the game, and a lot of today’s NHL coaches want good 200-foot games from all their top-minute players. Because of these flaws, he is the highest boom-or-bust pick in the draft; he will either be an NHL superstar or a third-line forward.
Canadiens Can’t Afford to Miss on a Forward
The Canadiens are in a good draft position at fifth-overall. They can get a very good top-six forward with potential star power; however, to get what they want, a few things still need to happen from picks one through four. Montreal needs to hope at least two defencemen get drafted in the top four, and they also need to expect that the forward they want doesn’t get drafted in one of the remaining spots. Celebrini will go to the San Jose Sharks at first overall — that is a foregone conclusion. The other three positions before the fifth spot are still open to interpretation. The BPA for number two should be Demidov, but the Chicago Blackhawks also might feel their BPA is a defenceman like Artyom Levshunov or Sam Dickinson. The Anaheim Ducks want defencemen in Anton Silayev or Zayne Parekh, leaving the Columbus Blue Jackets with the Habs’ fate.
The Blue Jackets could go in any direction with a defenseman or a forward. It sounds like they want one with size so that Cayden Lindstrom or even Sennecke could be in play. According to social media, most Montreal fans seem to want Demidov, and I’m one who hopes he can fall to the fifth spot. Suppose Demidov and Lindstrom get drafted into the top four. In that case, the Canadiens still have viable options, and if they decide to go the risky route like everyone wanted them to do last year — which they probably should go this year– then Sennecke is the pick. The Habs cannot afford to miss on this selection; they need a strong offensive player and potential star Demidov, Lindstrom and Tij Iginla are all safe picks. Sennecke, however, is the risky pick that could get them an elite superstar or an overpaid third-liner in the future.
If you want an excellent comprehensive guide to the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, look no further than The Hockey Writers.
