Contrary to popular belief, Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes isn’t afraid of bridge deals. It’s more so the recency bias of critics at work, considering he just signed Juraj Slafkovsky to an eight-year, $60.8 million contract after having completed his sophomore season.
And those critics definitely have a case, were they to argue it’s too much money too soon. After all, Slafkovsky has just 121 NHL games under his belt. Over the first 68 of them, more than half, he didn’t exactly look like an NHLer, scoring just six goals and 17 points. It’s only after he got his latest chance on the top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield that the 2022 first-overall pick proved he belonged, with 43 points in his last 53 games of 2023-24, ending the season with 20 goals and 50 points, far from insignificant milestones for a 20-year-old, regardless of where he got picked.
Related: Host Canadiens Steal Show by Getting Slafkovsky, Dach at 2022 Draft
Slafkovsky is unlikely to develop into a superstar. That was never how he was projected, even as he rapidly rose up the ranks in his draft year. The word “elite” may have been bounced around from time to time, but it was generally qualified with “by the boards,” his The Hockey Writers draft profile concluding by saying, “He has the potential to… become a mainstay in an organization’s top six,” which is a polite way of saying “less potential to become a mainstay on the top line.”
Juraj Slafkovsky vs. Cole Caufield
The fact Slafkovsky has already established himself as a top-line presence hints at the $7.6 million cap hit ending up worth it, in short order. It’s noteworthy he’s still got a season on his entry-level deal (at $950,000) to take his production up a level before the new one comes into effect. He may not. However, a ~67-point season, playing at the pace at which he produced on the top line, would put him on par with names like Carolina Hurricanes forward Seth Jarvis, who still has to negotiate his second contract which will probably come in at a high number itself, and current-Detroit Red Wings forward Alex DeBrincat, on whom the Chicago Blackhawks similarly banked, signing him to a second contract a season ahead of time in 2019 (three years, $19.2 million). Adjusting for inflation, DeBrincat’s then-$6.4 million hit probably looks a lot like Slafkovsky’s future one.
Another significant name at around that neck of the scoring-leaders’ woods is Caufield, who scored 28 goals and 65 points in 82 games last season, obviously after having signed a significant extension himself. His eight-year, $62.8 million second contract may have similarly taken people aback. However, the benefits of locking up a 40-goal scorer (potentially) simply outweighed the risks, when you’re talking about his prime years. Seeing as Slafkovsky also projects as playing on that top line, it made sense for Hughes to take a similar approach to extending him.
However, Hughes’ modus operandi is far from overcommitting to young players. He tends to strike a balance, depending on the situation. As proof, consider how, in between the extensions to Caufield and Slafkovsky, he acquired and signed Alex Newhook to more of a traditional second contract worth $11.6 million over four years. That deal almost mirrored the one he gave Kirby Dach, after acquiring him a year earlier (four years, $13.45 million), as his entry-level contract was expiring.
The difference should be clear. Dach admittedly broke out to a degree in his first season with the Canadiens, with 38 points in 58 games played. And, while Habs fans are generally confident in his abilities offensively speaking and at centre, he’s still got something to prove from a consistency/durability standpoint, getting in just two games in 2023-24. Seeing as Newhook established similar career highs as Dach last season, he’s got a ways to go before he should cash in too.
Slafkovsky Emerges as Top-Liner on Canadiens
Obviously, some people still aren’t sold on Slafkovsky after a single stellar half-season, and that’s 100% understandable. However, it’s fairly clear the role he’s stepped into, on the wing on the first line, is the role he was drafted to play. As all signs point to him being a good fit over an extended period of time there, you’re logically going to pay him in line with his other two linemates.
It’s something to consider, as restricted-free-agent defensemen Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron negotiate new deals this summer. Neither one is in the same class as Slafkovsky in terms of their projected worth to the team, meaning neither one should strike it rich with their second contracts, which one would imagine are going to be bridge deals. The fact Hughes negotiated Slafkovsky’s deal a year in advance, despite Xhekaj and Barron still requiring deals for 2024-25 is a clear indication.
That’s why everyone should have anticipated P.K. Subban’s second contract ending up a misstep on ex-GM Marc Bergevin’s part. As a holdout to start the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season, Subban ultimately signed a two-year, $5.75 million bridge. That season, he scored 11 goals and 38 points in 42 games, eventually capturing the James Norris Memorial Trophy. He put his money where his mouth was and made the Canadiens pony up with his next contract (eight years, $72 million). Habs history might be completely rewritten had that contract been more manageable, had Bergevin locked him up long term instead of signing him to the bridge deal in question.
Obviously, that’s the hope in Slafkovsky’s case, that the $7.6 million hit (Subban coincidentally having worn that exact number) ends up a bargain. No one’s suggesting the exact same thing happens. As a forward, Slafkovsky won’t exactly be in line to win the Norris. With Suzuki the clear-cut most valuable player on the Habs (at least right now), it’s hard to envision the Slovakian ever winning the Hart Memorial Trophy either. Again, he’s not projected to be the guy. However, $7.6 million still gets you a great player these days. Even if he has more to prove production-wise, it’s fair to say few can really see the top line without him at this stage. In that sense, Slafkovsky ’s already proven himself to be that guy.
