There’s no question that Connor Bedard is going to be an immense young talent for the Chicago Blackhawks. He’s already generated excitement and anticipation among hockey fans – even if they aren’t fans of the Blackhawks. He’s young, enthusiastic, skilled, and oh-so likable.
He’s already been compared to some of the greatest names in NHL history – like Wayne Gretzky – and the expectations are sky-high. But can Bedard live up to all this hype? Can he become the highest-scoring 18-year-old NHL player in the past two decades? That’s the question I want to explore in this post.
There Have Been Some Great 18-Year-Olds Over the Past 20 Years
Over the past 20 years, there have been some remarkable 18-year-old NHL players. Some of the most notable include Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Auston Matthews, and Connor McDavid. They’ve set the bar high. Crosby, for instance, had a stunning 18-year-old rookie season, scoring 102 points. Kane put up an impressive 72 points in his debut season.
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From what I’ve seen every step of the way, there’s no reason at all to question Bedard’s potential. He’s been amazing. However, it’s also important to realize just how tough a job scoring 70 points during one’s rookie season can be. He’ll have to go far to best some of the scoring exploits that these other great NHL players tossed out there at the same “tender” age.
Looking at the Best 18-Year-Old NHL Rookies of the Past 20 Years
Before talking much about Bedard, I want to spend some time looking at the best 18-year-olds in the NHL over the past two decades. One caveat, in this post I’m going to delimit my review to focus on scoring forwards. That doesn’t include defensemen.
For example, to my mind, any list of the best young players needs to include both the Vancouver Canucks new captain Quinn Hughes (the younger brother of Jack Hughes) and Cale Makar (who joined the Colorado Avalanche in the 2019-2020 season). Makar, for example, won the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s Rookie of the Year. I also haven’t included Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty, and Aaron Ekblad (all whom, like Makar, won the Calder as well). The list of great young blue-liners should also include Victor Hedman, Miro Heiskanen, and a few others.
Any list of high-scoring rookie forwards during the last 20 years would not be complete without names like Alex Ovechkin, Mathew Barzal, Evgeni Malkin, Paul Stastny, and Adam Panarin. The Washington Capitals’ Ovechkin started the same season (2005-06) Crosby did and scored 106 points. But he was 20 years old at the time. Malkin scored 85 points the very next season with the Penguins, but he was also 20.
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As well, during the 2006-07 season, Paul Stastny scored 78 points with the Colorado Avalanche – also 20. Panarin scored 77 points in 2015-16 with the Blackhawks, but he was at the ripe old age of 24 at the time. Finally, Barzal scored 85 points with the New York Islanders in 2017-18, but he was 19 when it happened.
Four Great 18-Year-Old NHL Rookies in the Past 20 Years
The following 18-year-old players are part of the list of amazing 18-year-old rookies.
Player One: Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Sidney Crosby’s debut in the 2005-06 season quickly established him as a superstar, scoring 102 points in his rookie campaign.
Player Two: Patrick Kane (Chicago Blackhawks)
Patrick Kane’s arrival in the 2007-08 season saw him put up an impressive 72 points. That was the kickstart of his journey to becoming one of the NHL’s top forwards.
Player Three: Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)
Connor McDavid entered the NHL in the 2015-16 season. Although he scored only 48 points in his rookie season, it was because he was injured in the 13th game of the season and played only 45 games that year. Since then, he has consistently been one of the league’s scoring leaders.
Player Four: Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Auston Matthews, who was drafted in 2016, scored 69 points in his debut season. He’s since scored 60 goals and has emerged as one of the NHL’s premier goal scorers.
Related: Auston Matthews’ Future Is Filled With Options & Possibilities
These former 18-year-old NHL talents are the players a young Bedard must best if he’s going to become the highest-scoring 18-year-old player of the past 20 years. Each of these four has gone on to make substantial contributions to their respective teams. However, each player is unique, just as Bedard will be.
What Will Bedard’s First Season Look Like?
Focusing on Bedard’s upcoming season, the over-and-under betting line is that he’ll put up 67.5 points, with a goal projection of 31.5 goals. Since the 2000-01 season, it’s been difficult for a rookie forward to have scored over 32 goals in a single NHL season. Bedard might add his name to that list.
However, he’s known for his incredible playmaking abilities and vision, often compared to a young Gretzky. He has a pinpoint shot and is a great scorer who can find the back of the net with precision. He could do it.
While Bedard’s skills are unquestionable, history suggests that passing 67.5 points, especially for an 18-year-old, is challenging. Only a handful of players have achieved this milestone in the past two decades. While I believe he can pass the 70-point total, other things matter in the quest.
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For example, how good is Bedard’s supporting cast? The team’s performance around him will play a significant role in his quest to become a point-a-game 18-year-old.
The Bottom Line
Although Connor Bedard possesses the skills and scoring ability to exceed score 30 goals and put up 70 points, history suggests the odds are against him.
There’s no question that Bedard will make a lasting impact on the NHL. However, whether he can become the best 18-year-old player in the past 20 years remains to be seen.
