Free agency is less than a month away, and while it is a weaker class than in previous years, that doesn’t mean there won’t be some quality players available on July 1. The New Jersey Devils have spent on some big names in free agency the last couple of years (Ondrej Palát, Dougie Hamilton), but I’m not expecting that this summer. Still, there are some wingers that could interest general manager Tom Fitzgerald to complement his core of Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt.
Michael Bunting, Left Wing
- 2022-23 Counting Totals: 82 games played, 23 goals, 26 assists and 49 points
- Evolving-Hockey Contract Projection: four years, $5.436 million cap hit
Bunting had a breakout year in 2021-22, totaling 23 goals and 63 points in 79 games. His production slipped a bit this past season, but he was still a solid top-six scorer for the Toronto Maple Leafs, averaging 1.94 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five. While he’s not an elite finisher, he creates shots off the rush but can also generate for himself in the offensive zone.
When looking at Bunting’s metrics, he posted an expected goals percentage of 58.1 percent in his two years with the Maple Leafs. He was worth an average of 2.95 wins above replacement, thanks to an outrageous 2021-22 season. I wouldn’t expect him to produce at that level annually on a four-year UFA contract, but he’s only 27. He should provide positive value on any deal less than five years long.
Bunting is an annoying player to play against, something the Devils might want more of in their lineup. But can he continue to produce away from players like Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner? The Devils have top-end talent, so that shouldn’t be an issue. The bigger sticking point may be his contract. He’s one of the better wingers in this UFA class, and a team could overpay for him. That could keep the Devils away, depending on the bidding war.
Ivan Barbashev, Left Wing/Center
- 2022-23 Counting Totals: 82 games played, 16 goals, 29 assists and 45 points
- Evolving-Hockey Contract Projection: four years, $4.761 million cap hit
After a breakout year in 2021-22 in which Barbashev totaled 26 goals and 60 points, his counting totals dropped off dramatically this past season. Still, he was a solid middle-six winger between the St. Louis Blues and Vegas Golden Knights during the regular season. He’s really picked it up in the playoffs, with 17 points in 21 games for the Golden Knights.
Barbashev shot a bit over 23 percent in 2021-22, so it wasn’t surprising to see his counting totals slip; his shooting percentage stabilized to a more sustainable 12.7 percent this season. But even with the shooting dip, he averaged 1.95 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five. He’s a solid five-on-five scorer and has been over the last two seasons.
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Most of Barbashev’s value comes offensively. He’s a defensive liability, which could be a problem in a Devils system that values two-way play from its forwards. But even then, he’d add a different look to that group. He throws the body around and is surprisingly efficient in transition for a player of his makeup. He *should* be cheaper than Bunting in free agency, but his impressive playoff run could’ve hiked up his value. Only time will tell.
Vladimir Tarasenko, Right Wing
- 2022-23 Counting Totals: 69 games played, 18 goals, 32 assists and 50 points
- Evolving-Hockey Contract Projection: three years, $5.305 million cap hit
The Devils have long had interest in Tarasenko. They were one of the teams that pursued him when he first requested a trade from the St. Louis Blues in the summer of 2021 (From “Blues sign Brandon Saad: What it means for the forward lineup and how it could spark a Vladimir Tarasenko trade” – The Athletic, 7/29/2021). The Devils also had talks with the Blues about acquiring Tarasenko if St. Louis had traded for Matthew Tkachuk last offseason, per Elliotte Friedman on the Jan. 27, 2023, episode of 32 Thoughts. Obviously, that never came to fruition.
Tarasenko missed some time with an injury this past season, but he still totaled 18 goals and 50 points in 69 games — a 22-goal, 59-point pace over 82 games. His five-on-five scoring was still there, as he averaged 1.98 points per 60 minutes. He’s not the player he used to be, and he’s basically entered the defense-optional part of his career, but he still has value offensively.
While Tarasenko certainly has the name, he shouldn’t cost much to sign as a UFA. Even after re-signing Bratt and Timo Meier, the Devils should still have money for Tarasenko. Term will likely be more of the sticking point; I can’t see the Devils wanting to give him more than two years. That’d come in at a projected cap hit of $4.925 million, something they can afford.
I don’t know if that’d appeal to Tarasenko, but perhaps it does if it keeps him in the New York metro area. He should be able to produce offensively on a team with Jack Hughes, Hischier, Bratt and Meier. And playing for a contender may matter most to him at this point in his career, which the Devils should certainly be next season.
Evan Rodrigues, Forward
- 2022-23 Counting Totals: 69 games played, 16 goals, 23 assists, and 39 points
- Evolving-Hockey Contract Projection: four years, $4.843 million cap hit
Rodrigues has been one of the more underrated forwards in the league over the last two seasons. After having a breakout year with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2021-22, he backed it up with a solid year for the Colorado Avalanche in 2022-23. Had he played 82 games, he would’ve been on pace for 19 goals and 46 points.
Though Rodrigues isn’t the best finisher in the world, he makes up for it in other areas. He’s a high-volume shooter, can create off the rush, and is highly efficient in transition. While he’s primarily a winger, he can play center and move around anywhere in the top nine. He’s the ideal depth forward for just about any contending team.
The issue with Rodrigues, as is the case with many UFA forwards this year, is his projected contract. A $4.843 million cap hit over four years is likely more than what the Devils want to pay for a middle-six upgrade. They’d have to convince Rodrigues to take a short-term deal for two years, as they did when they signed Tomáš Tatar in 2021, to make things work. Otherwise, it makes much more sense to target someone like Tarasenko.
Connor Brown, Right Wing
- 2022-23 Counting Totals: four games played, no goals, no points
- Evolving-Hockey Contract Projection: one year, $2.060 million cap hit
Brown only played in four games this past season due to an ACL tear, but per Chris Johnston, Brown has fully recovered from the injury. Before suffering an ACL tear, he was a solid middle-six winger capable of 15-20 goals and 35-45 points a season. If the Devils don’t re-sign Tatar, he could be a smart buy-low candidate to replace him.
Brown isn’t the play driver that Tatar is, but he did excel in many of the areas before the injury that Tatar does. While not much of a shooter, he was a high-end passer during the 2021-22 season. He excelled in transition and could create off the rush, specifically through his passing. To add to that, he was also an underrated forechecker:
If the Devils make a more significant addition to their top-six via a trade, then targeting Brown could be an option. He won’t cost much to sign, perhaps even less than his contract projection, given he only played in four games this past season. He’d bring some of the elements that Tatar did and could be a solid replacement for less money.
Jason Zucker, Left Wing
- 2022-23 Counting Totals: 78 games played, 27 goals, 21 assists and 48 points
- Evolving-Hockey Contract Projection: five years, $5.136 million cap hit
After struggling with injuries over the last two seasons, Zucker was healthy and looked more like the Jason Zucker of old when he was with the Minnesota Wild. Now that he’s healthy, the 31-year-old will look to cash in after potting 27 goals, the second most he’s had in a season for his career.
Zucker’s rebound year wasn’t an accident. He generated the most high-danger chances per 60 minutes among Penguins skaters. He capitalized on those chances and didn’t do it by shooting at an unsustainable rate; he shot 13.7 percent, just above his career shooting percentage of 12.5. He was also the Penguins’ third-most efficient five-on-five scorer behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
We know that Zucker is capable of putting up these kinds of numbers if he’s healthy. The question is, can he stay healthy moving forward? The Devils won’t sign him to a five-year contract with a cap hit north of $5 million as they did with Palát a year ago. But if there’s a path to a shorter-term deal, he makes plenty of sense as a top-six upgrade in free agency if the Devils don’t make a trade beforehand.
Devils Unlikely to Be Significant Free-Agent Players
Though you can never say never, I wouldn’t expect Fitzgerald and the Devils to hand another long-term deal in free agency. There isn’t an elite talent like Hamilton, and they can’t afford to sign another player to a contract similar to Palat’s. That’s why Tarasenko could make sense, especially given past interest. Zucker would be an upgrade, but not for five years and $25 million total. If there’s a short-term option that makes sense and doesn’t put the team in a cap bind, that’s the most logical free-agent path. Otherwise, a meaningful upgrade through a trade seems like the better bet.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, microstats data from Corey Sznajder/JFresh Hockey, all contract projections from Evolving-Hockey