Heading into the offseason, the New Jersey Devils have multiple issues. The most pressing is finding a new head coach. With the search narrowed to, at most, four potential candidates and with a decision expected before the holiday weekend, the next focus should be planning for free agency. The Devils will head into the offseason with almost $19 million in available cap space (Per CapFriendly). They will be 16th in the NHL in available cap space. However, those numbers may change drastically should the team enter into an extension with pending restricted free agent (RFA) Dawson Mercer and/or acquire a top-level goaltender without offsetting salary.
Related: Pending Free Agents Devils Fans Should Watch During the Playoffs
Earlier this week, AFP Analytics released detailed projections for every free agent to hit the market this summer. While no model is ever 100% predictive, AFP’s version gives a good baseline on what players can expect to cost in the offseason. The Devils are fortunate to have their core locked up on long-term, team-friendly deals or entry-level contracts. The only core member they have to decide on is the aforementioned Mercer, who they could even punt on for the time being and tender a qualifying offer, as he is still a year removed from having arbitration rights.
Even with the core locked up, the Devils are not without needs. General manager Tom Fitzgerald has indicated he wants to construct a team that is more difficult to play against and made up of players you can win with. He has considerable assets ready to compete in any trade market he deems appropriate with a top-ten draft pick and young, talented, inexpensive players like Alexander Holtz and Seamus Casey who could be made available. With the bigger moves likely to come in the trade market, the Devils should use free agency to build depth and fill in around the edges. The most glaring places needing depth are a bottom-six forward, penalty-killing/defense-first defenseman, and middle-six depth on the wing. Here is a look at five players projected to cost under $3 million per year, who the Devils should kick the tires on July 1.
Kevin Stenlund, Center – Projection: 2 Years x $1.34 Million
Florida Panthers general manager Bill Zito signed center Kevin Stenlund as a free agent on July 1, 2023, to add depth to his bottom six due to his familiarity with him from both their days in Columbus. Stenlund has fit well in head coach Paul Maurice’s system and bolstered a strong bottom-six in Florida’s run to the Eastern Conference Final. The Devils spent much of the second half of last season trying to fill the enormous void left by the departure of Michael McLeod after being charged with sexual assault in conjunction with other members of the 2018 Canadian World Junior Team. Stenlund, a 6-foot-4, 215-pound right-handed center, could be the answer New Jersey has been seeking.
Stenlund would be the only right-handed primary centerman on the Devils, but he is also a dangerous penalty killer with two short-handed goals in each of his last two seasons. His underlying numbers in 2023-24 were not perfect for a bottom-six center. However, it was only his first full season in the NHL, and there is room for improvement. Getting in on Stenlund at this time in his career could be a boon for whichever team ultimately signs the Swede. It is difficult to find a center entering his prime who stands 6-foot-4, is right-handed, wins faceoffs over 50% of the time, kills penalties, and will cost you less than $1.5 million a season.
He has been an integral part of Florida’s success, having logged over 106 bottom-six minutes at 5v5 in this year’s playoffs without having been on the ice for a goal against. He has also shown improvement in handling the puck, limiting his giveaways to 14 total this season after being credited with 12 in just 54 games last season. Stenlund would be a welcome addition to the Devils’ bottom six, forming an intimidating line with the likes of Curtis Lazar and Nathan Bastian/Kurtis MacDermid, and his ability to kill penalties would also allow the new coach to better focus the ice time of some of their forwards drafted into PK service last season. On balance, Stenlund is a fit for New Jersey in terms of play and price.
William Carrier, Left Wing – Projection: 2 Years x $2.4 Million
The Vegas Golden Knights are in a significant cap crunch this offseason and will struggle to retain their important free agents. It has been rumored that they are willing to spend what little cap space they have to ensure that one original Golden Knight, Jonathan Marchessault, remains with the team. In doing so, there is a good chance that another original in William Carrier is a luxury that is too expensive for Vegas. If they play their cards right, the Devils could be the recipient of Vegas’ misfortune and end up with a player with the size and speed of Timo Meier slotted in as their regular fourth-line left wing at a cost of almost $7 million less. While certainly not the offensive player that Meier is, Carrier brings the same size (6-foot-2, 220 pounds) as the Swiss winger with championship pedigree and significant snarl, best demonstrated by his 337 hits in 81 playoff games.
The Golden Knights do not have a selection in the second through fifth rounds of this year’s NHL Draft. Carrier is one of the diamonds in the rough of this year’s free agent class. He could even be someone the Devils wisely target before July 1 by expending capital to acquire his rights in a trade with Vegas for a later-round pick. Watching the playoffs this season, Carrier’s skill was fully on display. He is a capable puck-transporter as a winger and has the speed to threaten defenses and the bite to hamper opposing offenses. Notably, in a series his team lost, the save percentage at 5v5 with him on the ice was still almost 93%, and only two goals were scored against him in nearly 75 minutes of ice time. In this year’s playoffs alone, he was ranked in the 81st percentile in top speed and 92nd percentile for the number of speed bursts above 22 mph while only playing in one round. (Per NHL Edge)
The only nagging concern about Carrier is his inability to stay healthy. He has never played a full 82 games in a season but has always been available in the postseason for Vegas. The Devils should have enough depth with Lazar, Bastian, MacDermid, and Nolan Foote to rest Carrier throughout the season as needed. With the style of play he brings, it is natural to need additional rest, and it is a trade-off the Devils should be willing to accept for the chance to add a fast, 29-year-old winger who averages 244 hits per 82 games for under $2.5 million.
Brenden Dillon, Left Defense – Projection: 2 Years x $2.86 Million
While a bit pricier than the others on this list, defenseman Brenden Dillon solves enough of New Jersey’s issues to be worth the extra cash. At 33 years old, he is closer to the end than the start of his career, but with that age comes a vast amount of regular season and playoff experience. Two seasons ago, the Devils learned that playing defensemen with top-four talent on your third pair pays huge dividends and should strongly consider doing the same with Dillon. He mostly closely resembles former Devil Ryan Graves in size at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, but even though he is six years older, he is still a better, faster skater than Graves (Per NHL Edge) and brings more edge and aggression.
Dillon has never been shy about standing up for his teammates, a quality that is valued by New Jersey. This season, he participated in seven fights, many of which were in response to liberties taken by opponents on other Jets. He is also a premier penalty killer and defensive defenseman without sacrificing mobility and the ability to move the puck out of danger by passing or skating. This season he was credited with 241 hits and 111 blocks, both would have led New Jersey as would his career 82-game average of 198 hits and 110 blocks. Dillon has demonstrated durability throughout his 13-year career, having played at least 76 games every full season since his rookie year. The Devils may have to go up for a more favorable average annual value (AAV), but a three-year deal at $2.5 million AAV makes sense for both parties.
Jordan Martinook, Winger – Projection: 3 Years x $2.765 Million
One of the easiest ways to improve your team is to take talent from your competitors. Signing middle-six winger Jordan Martinook would do just that for New Jersey. In his end-of-season press conference, Fitzgerald said he needed players he could win with on his roster. Martinook is that type of player. His counting stats belie his value, but every good team has players like him. The 31-year-old winger can play on either side of any line in the bottom nine and kill penalties. His play to save a goal in Game 6 vs. the New York Rangers in this year’s playoffs will be replayed forever. His success last season against the Devils in the playoffs should also not be lost on Fitzgerald.
The Carolina Hurricanes dominated in the regular season at 5v5 with Martinook on the ice. His expected goals for percentage (xGF%) and Corsi For percentage (CF%) were over 60. The team also had 218 more scoring chances than their opponents with Martinook on the ice. Forming a line of Ondrej Palat, Erik Haula, and Martinook would provide the team with one of the peskiest third lines in the NHL. He also brings durability. He has never played less than 77 games in his six non-COVID-impacted seasons. His skating would fit in with the Devils’ style of play as his speed bursts rank him in the 80th percentile in the NHL for bursts above 20 and 22 mph. Over the last two seasons, he has averaged 33 points per season, but the offense is not on top of the Devils’ list. However, his ability to score in the clutch and provide secondary scoring in the playoffs is highly valued. Martinook’s signing would signal a power shift within the division, and the Devils should be all in for the winger.
Jani Hakanpaa, Defenseman – Projection: 1 Year x $1.51 Million
Much like Dillon, Jani Hakanpaa would bring size, stability, and experience as an affordable third-pair defenseman. Also, like Dillon, Hakanpaa may be forced out of the Dallas Stars lineup, not due to his play but the emergence of young prospects. The 6-foot-6 225-pound Finn has less mileage on him than Dillon but is equally effective and is right-handed. Should the Devils decide to hold onto Kevin Bahl and/or move John Marino, they may see the need for depth on the right side, making Hakanpaa a perfect fit.
Hakanpaa has been forced out of this year’s playoffs with an injury but will slot back into the Stars lineup once he is physically able. He spent most of the season as the Stars’ shutdown pair teamed with Esa Lindell. The pair was also the team’s first choice on the penalty kill. Like Dillon, Hakanpaa also brings unique physicality with an 82-game average of 265 hits and 127 blocks. Hakanpaa would be a welcome addition to New Jersey, especially if he only required a one-year deal; he would essentially take the cap hit and role that was envisioned for Colin Miller at the start of the season and not encumber the Devils’ long-term plans on the back end with contracts for Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec coming due in short order.
There are bargains to be had in free agency this season, and the Devils must be buyers if they want to reclaim their place in the postseason. These five players are a good start, but others out there could fit the bill, like former Devils Tomas Tatar and Stefan Noesen, to name two. How Fitzgerald decides to build around his core will go a long way toward determining for how long the team’s championship window remains open.
