As free agency and the draft fade into development camp one question lingers, can the New Jersey Devils legitimately compete for a Stanley Cup with Vitek Vanecek as their starting goaltender? If his playoff performance over the last three seasons is any indicator, they would be wise to pair their fearsome group of skaters with an equally talented goalie. Connor Hellebuyck is currently garnering all the headlines and speculation, but the better move for the Devils would be weaponizing their prospect pool to obtain Juuse Saros.
Devils Seek Stability in Net
Vanecek had a fantastic regular season for the Devils in 2022-23. He became only the second netminder in the 40-year history of the franchise to eclipse the 30-win mark. Following a season where the Devils had to deploy seven goalies, finding stability in net with Vanecek solidified the team’s playoff chances and allowed the talent-rich group of skaters comfort to break out.
The Devils entered the season relying on Mackenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier to return from injuries and bolster the goaltending position. Unfortunately, Blackwood tore his MCL early in the season and then had a groin injury later in the year and never was able to get on track. Similarly, after significant hip surgery sidelined Bernier for almost the entire 2021-22 season, his expected Thanksgiving return was permanently put on hold after he reinjured himself. He would miss the entire season and is likely headed to retirement.
The loss of Blackwood and Bernier opened the door for the emergence of rookie Akira Schmid. He solidified the backup role demonstrating a calmness in net that permeated the team in front of him. In 18 games played he saved over eight goals above expected and saved more than half a goal above expected per 60 minutes. Of goalies who played at least 15 games, he ranked sixth in the league in goals saved above expected per 60; 23 spots ahead of Vanecek. The pair had stabilized the position and given the Devils strong enough play to lift them to the most wins in franchise history and home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Devils Will Need Elite Goaltending to Contend for a Cup
The last several years have proven that a team does not need an elite goaltender to win the Stanley Cup, but it does need elite goaltending to get through the playoffs. In stretches throughout the regular season, both Vanecek and Schmid provided elite goaltending, but their performance in the postseason was less spectacular.
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The Devils opted to start the playoffs with Vanecek who proceeded to surrender ten goals in the first two games putting the team in a seemingly insurmountable 2-0 deficit heading to Madison Square Garden. In stepped Schmid, two years removed from playing junior hockey, who then proceeded to outplay reigning Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin over the final five games of the series. Schmid was heroic, posting a .951 save percentage (SV%) and a 1.38 goals-against average (GAA), and shutting out the New York Rangers in Games 5 and 7.
The series against the Carolina Hurricanes was not what the Devils had hoped for throughout the lineup but the most glaring weakness was between the pipes. In five games, they had to pull their starter three times and ended up surrendering a total of 24 goals. Schmid’s SV% plummeted to .874 and his GAA skyrocketed to 4.23. Vanecek never regained his regular season form and was second-to-last in goals saved above expected posting a minus-7.7 while only playing parts of seven games. The final straw was Game 5, where after the Devils were in a position to even the series Vanecek surrendered five goals on 17 shots. It was clear from his postgame demeanor that his confidence had been eroded. He would not see the ice again for the rest of the playoffs.
Devils Play to Win Now or Show Patience?
There is a burgeoning argument over whether the Devils would be wise to show patience and run it back with Vanecek and Schmid since their contention window is closer to open than closed. The time for patience has ended, this team should be in win-now mode. This offseason alone general manager (GM) Tom Fitzgerald signed wingers Timo Meier and Jesper Bratt to eight-year contracts, binding them with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, and Dawson Mercer as the forward core for a Cup run. The team cannot afford to give away seasons of the prime years of this group due to faulty goaltending, especially when the problem is easily solved.
Fitzgerald shook off the sentimentality of long-standing Devils Miles Wood and Damon Severson, cut bait with home-grown players Jesper Boqvist and Yegor Sharangovich, and let capable top-four defenseman Ryan Graves leave in free agency. He also brought in veterans Tyler Toffoli and Colin Miller and brought back Erik Haula, signaling that the team is no longer adding projects and will instead only deploy finished products. The same philosophy should be applied to goaltending.
Saros Makes the Most Sense
Seemingly there are many goaltenders whose track records would be an improvement over Vanecek, especially in the playoffs. The three options most discussed are Hellebuyck, John Gibson, and Saros. Of the three, Saros is the best choice for a Devils team ready to win now.
There is no doubt that Hellebuyck is a top-five goaltender in the NHL. His acquisition would likely make the Devils the leading favorite to win the Cup in 2024. The downside to him is the cost of both acquisition and retention. It is unclear what the Winnipeg Jets would seek in return for Hellebuyck, but the Devils’ stockpile of young talent makes them able to meet any cost. The bigger issue is keeping the goalie long-term. The 30-year-old has one season remaining on his contract before he becomes a free agent. Reports indicate that he is seeking a contract in the ballpark of $9.5 million with significant term; a number likely too rich for the Devils or any other team. Should the Devils be able to get Hellebuyck and extend him in the $7 million range it would make sense, but that is a huge unanswered question to invest meaningful assets in acquisition cost without an answer.
Like Hellebuyck, the acquisition cost of Gibson would be manageable. Unlike Hellebuyck, he has a contract with term. He is signed for four more seasons with a cap hit of $6.4 million, a substantial amount for a goaltender seeking to regain his prior glory. He is a huge risk as his statistics have steadily declined from a .926 SV% and 2.43 GAA in 2017-18 to .899 SV% and 3.99 GAA this past season. There is no doubt that some of the decline is attributable to the defense of the Anaheim Ducks but the trend is concerning. On the other hand, Gibson is motivated to prove he still has elite skills, and if Fitzgerald can get the Ducks to retain some salary he may be an affordable tandem and good mentor for Schmid.
Saros would bring the Devils the best of both worlds, elite goaltending and a more favorable contract than either Hellebuyck or Gibson at a younger age. Saros will enter this season at 28 years old, two years younger than Hellebuyck and Gibson. In seasons in which he has played in at least 30 games, his worst output was .914 SV% and a 2.70 GAA. In comparison, Vanecek has never posted a SV% over .911. It is in the last two seasons that Saros has set himself apart. Last season he led the league in shots against and shots saved and was the league leader in goals saved above expected. He has also delivered in the playoffs posting a career .914 SV% and 2.63 GAA. His on-ice credentials are unimpeachable and his contract status is equally enticing.
There are 13 goaltenders currently set to make more money than Saros this season. There are not 13 better goaltenders than him in the league. He is under contract for two more seasons at $5 million per season. The Devils could absorb that amount and even keep Vanecek as insurance. Even if his next contract ends up being more costly than Hellebuyck or Gibson, the Devils will have gotten two seasons of him at a below-market rate. Schmid will have had time to develop and the Devils would have two solid chances at a Cup. Saros checks all the boxes and makes the most sense.
It is unclear what the acquisition cost for Saros would be, but the Devils are well-equipped to pay the price. They could part with picks, Vanecek, a top prospect (Alexander Holtz, Arseni Gritsyuk, Graeme Clarke, Seamus Casey), and a lower-level prospect/NHL roster player (Nolan Foote, Tyce Thompson, Topias Vilen). New Predators coach Andrew Brunette knows the Devils players well having just left their bench to head to Nashville and likely has preferences the Devils could accommodate. There are no clear signs Saros is currently being shopped, but with highly touted goaltending prospect Yaroslav Askarov waiting in the wings, the Devils should be able to assemble a package enticing enough to pry Saros loose.
Advanced stats were taken from Money Puck