The New Jersey Devils’ quest for a starting goalie seems near a conclusion. Despite several potentially available goalies, the Devils and general manager Tom Fitzgerald seem to have aimed their focus on Calgary and the Flames’ veteran netminder, Jacob Markstrom.
Pundits, writers, and fans have debated which goalie is best for New Jersey. With the availability of many of the top options clouded by no-movement clauses and a lack of clarity as to whom teams are willing to trade, Markstrom appears both the most likely and probably the safest available option for Fitzgerald. Whether he is the correct choice remains to be seen, but having targeted Markstrom, the next calculation is what a fair price is.
Jacob Markstrom Is a Bonafide NHL Starting Goalie
The proper starting point is to determine what the Devils would be getting in Markstrom before determining the fair value in exchange. He easily passes the eye test for a team that values size in goaltenders. He commands the net at 6-foot-6 and has demonstrated an ability to be a workhorse starter, having started 43 games or more in seven seasons. He has also posted a save percentage (SV%) above .905 in eight of the past nine seasons. With the way the Devils are expected to play under new head coach Sheldon Keefe, having a goalie who can make the difficult saves is vital. Throughout the past three seasons combined, he has posted the fourth-highest high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) of any goalie with at least 130 starts. This season, he posted the sixth-highest goals saved above expected among goalies who started most of their team’s games.
Markstrom’s stats this season are deceptive. He fell off a cliff as soon as the trade deadline passed. The simplest reason for this is the exodus of talent from Calgary at the trade deadline, especially on the blue line. They traded away veterans Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifan, which significantly depleted their defense corps, especially after jettisoning Nikita Zadorov earlier in the season. Before the trade deadline, in 40 games played, Markstrom posted a .911 SV%, a 2.62 goals-against average (GAA) and over 10 goals saved above average. On the day the trade deadline expired, he was the NHL leader in HDSV% at .856. In 14 seasons in the NHL, Markstrom has only been a part of two playoff runs, starting 26 career games with a 13-13 record while posting a .911 SV% and 2.90 GAA. In the playoffs, he did produce quality starts 65% of the time.
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Markstrom has shown he can be a Vezina-caliber goaltender for long stretches, finishing second for the trophy two years ago. Like most goalies, though, he has suffered through streaks of mediocrity. With his age and injury history, there are reasonable concerns as he moves into his late 30s. The play of now-35-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky in the last two playoffs proves that it is not unprecedented for a goalie to succeed into his late 30s and should give the Devils hope. The Devils would benefit from Markstrom being a late bloomer. His career games started is almost identical to the Anaheim Ducks’ John Gibson who is four years younger. He has also had difficulty putting two consistent seasons together in back-to-back years. He has alternated between positive and negative goals saved above expected for the last four seasons. Regardless of the potential pitfalls, he seems to be the player the Devils have locked onto in their search.
The Devils Have Assets to Make a Trade
The Devils have been working towards acquiring a goaltender throughout Fitzgerald’s tenure. They have invested draft capital in goalies and made several trades to try to solidify the position, but having tried various stopgap measures, it is time to go “big game hunting.”
The Untouchables
The Devils’ need for a goalie will not force them to veer off course from the core they have built. In a trade for Markstrom, there are certainly a plethora of untouchables. They will not part ways with any of their young stars under team control for the foreseeable future. This includes Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, Dougie Hamilton, Luke Hughes, and Simon Nemec. Theoretically, every other asset in the organization could be on the table, though several others should not be.
Draft Picks
Fitzgerald has been unafraid to use draft picks to acquire talent. Despite parting with picks to acquire Meier and Jake Allen, he still has a stockpile of desirable selections. The big prize is this year’s tenth overall pick, ironically one slot behind Calgary. In addition to that pick, the Devils have eight other picks in the first three rounds over the next three years, including all of their first-round picks. They cannot trade away their 2025 second-round pick, as it was conditionally part of the Allen trade with Montreal. Included in that cache of picks are a 2024 third and a 2025 second-rounder acquired from the Winnipeg Jets in the Tyler Toffoli deal.
Prospects and NHL Roster Players
The skater rumored to be asked about most, especially by the Nashville Predators, is Dawson Mercer. It is unlikely the Devils would even consider parting with him for only two years of Markstrom, absent a significant sweetener from Calgary in the form of a player who could immediately help New Jersey or considerable salary retention. If Mercer is off the table, the top asset is 2020 seventh-overall draft pick Alexander Holtz. The young Swede struggled to earn the organization’s trust all season despite scoring 16 goals in limited ice time. He followed up his inconsistent season by failing to make the Swedish team for the IIHF World Championship. Like Yegor Sharangovich, Holtz would benefit from extended ice time and room to make mistakes he could receive in Calgary. He would likely be at the top of the Flames’ demands.
Beyond Mercer and Holtz, the Devils’ next most tradeable roster player is probably a defenseman, Kevin Bahl or John Marino. Moving Marino would offset much of Markstrom’s salary and help bolster a depleted Flames blue line. Bahl would give Calgary a player under contract and team control for multiple years. The only other roster player who would be potentially part of a deal is Nathan Bastian. The physically imposing right wing is another player likely needing a fresh start. He battled significant injuries in the last two seasons, and as the Devils rebuild their bottom-six, he may end up without a regular spot in the lineup. Given the right opportunity, Bastian has the size, speed, and snarl to be a valuable bottom-six player.
The prospect pool is also far from barren. The Devils possess a stockpile of young goalies who have each earned acclaim at different points. The Flames would likely want a goalie back in return for Markstrom. The Devils have Nico Daws and Akira Schmid as the closest to being regular NHL goaltenders, while Isaac Poulter and Tyler Brennan are also potential NHLers. The Devils are not particularly strong at center in their prospect pool, but they have several wingers who could soon be ready. Graeme Clarke and Nolan Foote both got time with the Devils this season and would be considered second-tier prospects but ready to compete for an NHL job. Winger Brian Halonen is another player who could bring value in a trade with his history of goal scoring and the heavy game he has played in the minors. The Devils could also explore moving current Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) winger Arseni Gritsyuk, who is at least another season away from coming to North America but has played well in his time in Russia.
The jewel of the Devils’ prospects resides on the blue line. Former second-round pick Seamus Casey recently signed his entry-level contract, signaling he is giving up his college eligibility after a dominant career at the University of Michigan. He is a right-shot defenseman with tremendous instincts with the puck, a great skater, and a natural on the power play. With Hamilton, Nemec, and Marino, his path to the NHL is currently blocked, though he is likely at least a year away from being a regular NHL contributor. The Devils have other defense prospects that may draw interest in Santeri Hatakka, Danil Misyul, and Topias Vilen.
Parameters of a Deal
Reports are circulating that the Flames want a first-round pick and a top prospect to move Markstrom. That appears to be an overreach. The biggest issue the Flames have to deal with is that despite the fact that the demand for Markstrom is high, the player controls the deal with his no-movement clause. The only team that he has agreed to waive his trade protection for so far is New Jersey. It is difficult to see him agree to allow a trade to a team that is not ready to compete like the Ottawa Senators who have been the team most often connected to Markstrom besides New Jersey. With the lack of real competition coupled with Markstrom’s apparent desire to follow teammates Tanev, Hanifan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Matthew Tkachuk out of Calgary, the Devils should have more leverage than the Flames.
Trade Comps
Often the best way to value an asset is to find comparables. The difficulty here is that a true comparable doesn’t really exist. It is rare that established starting goalies are traded. The most similar situation is probably Colorado’s trade for Darcy Kuemper and Toronto’s trade for Frederik Andersen. Kuemper was traded for a first-round pick, a future conditional third-round pick and Conor Timmins. Andersen was traded for a first-round pick and a second-round pick. Both were traded to teams with the belief that they were entering a window of championship contention.
The main difference between those players and Markstrom is age. Kuemper was traded to the Avalanche having just turned 31 and Andersen was 26 when traded. At the time of their trades, Kuemper had one year remaining on a contract paying him $4.5 million, Andersen was a pending free agent and immediately signed a contract with Toronto for five years at $5 million per year. If a deal to acquire a starter in their prime cost a first-round pick, a second pick and a throw-in player, what is fair value for a 34-year-old goalie with a $6 million cap hit?
Fair Value
The unknown that most impinges on what is fair value is the willingness of Calgary to retain some of Markstrom’s salary. The best way for them to pry better assets out of New Jersey would be to retain somewhere between 33 and 50%. Without retention, a fair price for Markstrom would be a 2025 second-round pick that becomes a first-rounder should he and the team reach certain milestones. For Markstrom, it should be linked to starting at least 45 or 50 games and for the team, it should be linked to at least making the second round of the playoffs. Failure to do either should keep the pick as a second. The Devils should also include a lesser pick, perhaps a 2024 third-round pick. The final piece, without retention, should be an A-type prospect like Clarke, Foote, Halonen, a young goalie, or a roster player like Bastian or Bahl.
If the Flames agree to retain a significant portion of the contract, that is where they should be able to cash in. Even with maximum retention, the 10th overall pick should not be on the table. The only way it should factor into the trade would be if New Jersey was getting another player back in the deal who can make an immediate impact. Retention should unlock a higher-quality prospect like Holtz or Casey, one of the top goalie prospects and a lottery-protected 2025 first-round pick. The reason the Devils would be okay sending an unconditional first if there is retention is that even if Markstrom does not work out, only having a year at $3-4 million will not cripple their cap.
Whether Markstrom is the goalie the Devils should be targeting is irrelevant. He is the goalie they are targeting. If the Flames are unwilling to retain salary, then the Devils should be able to acquire Markstrom without giving up a first-round pick and a major prospect. Should the Flames agree to retain salary, then Fitzgerald should crack open the vault a bit more and feel comfortable dangling better assets to get the deal done. Either way, the Devils have the capital to obtain Markstrom without offering the 10th pick in the 2024 NHL Draft.
