When the New Jersey Devils signed Dougie Hamilton during the 2021 offseason, the hope was he’d help bring the team back to relevancy the following season. Injuries derailed his 2021-22 campaign, but the Hamilton that the organization envisioned when pursuing him as a free agent showed up in a big way this past season. He finished 2022-23 with a career-best 22 goals and 74 points in 82 games, making him one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL. The question is, can he repeat his 2022-23 campaign? Let’s review his season and what to expect from him in 2023-24.
Reviewing Hamilton’s 2022-23
The Devils signed Hamilton because they lacked an elite No. 1 defenseman who could move the puck. In an NHL that’s trending toward offense, every team needs a blueliner with Hamilton’s skill set. A broken toe and broken jaw limited him in 2021-22, but he couldn’t have been any better than he was this past season.
Hamilton was one of the best point-producing defensemen in the NHL at five-on-five. He averaged 1.52 points per 60 minutes, ranking him fifth among blueliners who logged at least 1,000 minutes at that game state. Only Erik Karlsson, Josh Morrisey, Vince Dunn and Cale Makar scored at a more efficient rate than Hamilton in 2022-23.
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Hamilton’s scoring wasn’t restricted to just at five-on-five, though. He was also one of the top point-producing defensemen on the power play, averaging 6.67 points/60. The only blueliners who were more efficient scorers than Hamilton on the power play were Mikhail Sergachev, Miro Heiskanen, Makar, Tyson Barrie and Rasmus Dahlin. Once again, pretty good company to be in.
Hamilton finished the season as one of the most valuable offensive defensemen in the NHL, with his offensive game being worth a goals above replacement (GAR) of 15.2. That ranked seventh among blueliners leaguewide. Since he’s a high-volume shooter, he should remain one of the NHL’s more valuable offensive defensemen. He finished with 275 shots on goal at all strengths, the 16th-most in the league among all players, forwards included. It was the most by a defenseman this past season, so there will be quality chances coming off his stick more often than not.
The question with Hamilton is his defensive game, which has always been the case. Even then, he was about a league-average defender this past season. With the Devils having John Marino on the roster, Hamilton doesn’t need to be an elite defender. Marino will log the difficult defensive minutes, freeing up Hamilton for more offensive roles at five-on-five.
For example, Hamilton logged 29 percent of his minutes against elite competition this past season, per PuckIQ. Meanwhile, Marino spent 36 percent of his ice time against opponents’ top lines. I’d expect that to remain the case since Marino isn’t going anywhere.
Predicting Hamilton’s 2023-24
Potential Pairings for Hamilton
Hamilton spent most of the 2022-23 season alongside Jonas Siegenthaler. Though they had a bit of an up-and-down year as a pair, the results were still positive, with them totaling a 55.53 expected goals percentage (xG%) as a duo. I’d again expect Siegenthaler to be Hamilton’s primary defense partner this coming season.
However, the left side of the Devils’ defense will be a bit different this season, with Luke Hughes and Kevin Bahl set for full-time roles in the NHL. I wouldn’t expect Hamilton to play alongside Hughes to start the season since Hughes only has five games of NHL experience. But if the Devils are trailing in a contest and need goals, it wouldn’t be a shock to see coach Lindy Ruff pair them together to help generate offense.
Speaking of Bahl, he has gotten some minutes alongside Hamilton over the last two seasons with decent results. They’ve logged just over 221 minutes together since the start of 2021-22, posting a 51.97 xG%. My guess is Bahl will be first in line to take over the recently departed Ryan Graves’ role alongside Marino. But Bahl and Hamilton could see some minutes as a pair, given Bahl is more of a stay-at-home defender and should complement Hamilton well.
Does Hamilton Repeat His 2022-23?
One of the best metrics for determining whether a player will regress or rebound is individual point percentage (IPP), which measures how often a player collects a point when he’s on the ice for a goal. Hamilton’s IPP this season was 44.44 percent, about right on average with his career IPP of 45.17 percent.
While it may have been a career year, it wasn’t necessarily an outlier. Will Hamilton put up 22 goals and 74 points again? I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s possible. And even though Luke Hughes is in the picture, Hamilton will still get first-unit power-play minutes, giving him better odds of repeating his 2022-23.
It also helps that Ruff’s system is tailor-made for a defenseman with elite offensive ability like Hamilton. John Klingberg’s best years came in Dallas when Ruff was the Stars’ coach. The reason Hamilton and Klingberg can thrive in Ruff’s system is because more often than not, there’s a defenseman looking to jump into the rush as the fourth attacker. It’s the perfect fit for offensive-minded blueliners like them.
Expecting Hamilton to touch 74 points in back-to-back seasons might be unreasonable, but chances are he’ll still be highly productive in 2023-24. The Devils should be one of the best offensive teams in the league, both at five-on-five and on the power play, so there’ll be opportunities for Hamilton to fill the score sheet. Somewhere around 15-20 goals and 65 points isn’t far-fetched, and that should set him up to be one of the league’s best offensive defensemen again.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey