With the recent addition of Tomas Nosek, the New Jersey Devils’ forward group seems to be complete. The team returns 10 of the 12 forwards that closed out the season in Carolina. A trade for Tyler Toffoli and the signing of Nosek brought the group back up to 12, with a few prospects fighting to make the lineup as well. There is no reason to believe that Lindy Ruff will abandon his penchant for line mixing this season, but with the calendar firmly entrenched in the offseason, it is a great time to speculate on what combinations will pour out of his blender once the season begins.
Lindy Ruff’s Blender
Often to the consternation of the Devils fan base, Ruff has a penchant for throwing his lines in the metaphorical blender to come up with new combinations almost period to period. For example, no line combination played more than 37 games together as a unit, and only five played more than 20 games together. Of course, significant injuries to Ondrej Palat and Nathan Bastian as well as the addition of Timo Meier for the last 21 games played a role in the constant shakeups.
Ruff is the active career leader in wins among head coaches and credits much of his philosophy on line combinations to what he learned from Hall of Famer Scotty Bowman. “The way he matched lines … his tweaking who was playing with different players, he didn’t keep lines together that often,” Ruff told the media after winning his 800th game. Ruff often talks about how he has adopted some of Bowman’s philosophies including when you find two players that play well together then rotate a third on and off of the line based on matchups. Those who wish to be critical of the Ruff blender only need to take a look at the winningest coach of all time in Bowman and how it worked for him throughout his career.
14 Players for 12 Spots in the Devils’ Starting Lineup
The Devils have a problem most teams would envy; more NHL-ready players than starting spots. With the emergence of Nolan Foote and Alexander Holtz, there are 14 forwards for 12 starting positions. Complicating matters is that of the two, Foote is not exempt from waivers. Forward Graeme Clarke also may play himself into a spot, however, it would likely be at the expense of Holtz as both play a similar game. For this scenario, the most likely players to make the roster are the ones considered so Clarke is out. The 14 players broken down by position are:
Centers
- Nico Hischier
- Jack Hughes
- Erik Haula*
- Michael McLeod
- Tomas Nosek*
Right-Hand Shot Wingers
- Dawson Mercer*
- Tyler Toffoli
- Nathan Bastian
- Curtis Lazar*
- Alexander Holtz
Left-Hand Shot Wingers
- Timo Meier
- Jesper Bratt
- Ondrej Palat
- Nolan Foote
Players are listed at their current primary positions, however, if they have a * next to their name it indicates they can play both center and wing.
Related: Devils Mailbag: Hughes, Prospects, Mercer & More
Since moving one player from one line to another impacts the other players, the line combinations will be presented in groups of four lines. For the purposes of this projection, McLeod is expected to start the season on the roster. Should he face a suspension due to the investigation into the 2018 Hockey Canada World Juniors team, then Nosek or Lazar would likely slot into his spot. Recent signee Chris Tierney has also been kept out of this projection as his two-way contract signals he is likely to start in the American Hockey League (AHL) and would be injury insurance during the season. I will list Hischier’s line before Hughes’ line merely out of habit, as it is a fool’s errand to try and label one the first line and the other the second, especially when Ruff’s preference is to roll his lines. With that in mind, here are four potential ways Ruff could deploy his lines come October.
No Room for Rookies
In this scenario, the Devils fill all 12 spots with veteran players keeping two of Holtz, Foote, and Clarke on the NHL roster and slotting in as opportunities present themselves. Haula starts in the top six dropping Toffoli to the third line and moving McLeod up to 3C based on his strong play in last year’s playoffs.
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer
- Haula – Hughes – Bratt
- Palat – McLeod – Toffoli
- Nosek – Lazar – Bastian
You are likely thinking, didn’t the Devils get Toffoli so they wouldn’t have to play Haula in the top six any longer? The short answer is: sorta.
Hughes and Haula
Throughout the season, Haula proved the perfect foil to Hughes. The only real weakness in Hughes’ game last season was his below-50 percent success rate on faceoffs. Having Haula on his line will take some of the pressure off of Hughes as he won faceoffs at a 54 percent rate. Not surprisingly Hughes improved his game when paired with Haula. The expected goals for percentage (xGF%), when the two played on the same line, was a full five points higher than when Hughes played alone and seven higher than when Haula played without Hughes. In fact, of lines that played together for at least 75 minutes, the Haula, Hughes, and Bratt line had the highest xGF% (70.1) and no other line came close. The line tilted the ice having over two-thirds of the shot attempts while they were on the ice. The only reason the line didn’t produce more goals was Haula’s farcical shooting percentage over the first half of the season. That is unlikely to continue.
Meier, Hischier & Mercer
Despite the preference for a power forward on Hughes’ wing, the numbers bear out that Meier belongs with Hischier. Hughes and Meier have an impressive 60 xGF%, however, that is dwarfed by the 67 xGF% that Hischier and Meier have together. Throw in the chemistry of playing together internationally for years and the combination works.
Add Mercer to the line and, despite a small sample, the xGF% rises to over 71. Mercer entered the league as a natural center, but has played his best hockey to Hischier’s right. While the xGF% is expectedly high (62), the more impressive stat is that they played together for 330 minutes and only surrendered 12 goals, just over 2.1 per 60 minutes. Ruff likes to match Hischier against one of the opponent’s top lines, so having 200-foot players like Meier and Mercer as his wingers will allow this to continue.
Bottom Six
This bottom six assembled here is likely the most defensively proficient of the possible combinations. It allows Ruff to have veterans Palat and Toffoli flanking the speedy McLeod who demonstrated play-driving skills in the playoffs. Nosek starts out on the wing despite being a natural center as he is the only left-handed shot on the line. Any scoring from the fourth line is a bonus in this configuration but that is offset by the defensive acumen. It would be difficult to find a more veteran and potent bottom six in the league.
Holtz Earns his Shot
In this scenario, Holtz slots into the top nine and Lazar drops out of the lineup. The team told the former first-round pick that this summer was critical to his development and critical to his chances to make the roster out of camp. This lineup also restores Toffoli to the top six where many expect him to play. It also moves the left-handed Bratt to the left side.
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer
- Bratt – Hughes – Toffoli
- Palat – Haula – Holtz
- Nosek – McLeod – Bastian
Top Six
Here the Hischier line remains unchanged while Bratt switches to the left wing and Toffoli slots into the right side of Hughes. The advantages are having two play drivers like Bratt and Hughes, who both excel at setting up others, paired with a sniper in Toffoli. Toffoli has shown throughout his career that he can play with elite-level speed and talent. The concerns for that line would be how other teams would match against them on the road and in the faceoff dot.
Bottom Six
Last season, Holtz demonstrated that he needed time to improve his play away from the puck both offensively and defensively. His prolific scoring for Utica in the AHL showed that he has progressed to a point where he has reached his development peak at that level. While he has top-six skills, the Devils may consider a softer landing spot and play him with Palat and Haula. Those two veterans are the perfect mentors for a player like Holtz to learn the level of commitment needed at both ends combined with the ability to score on the other end. Haula did wonders for Hughes’ game last season, perhaps he can help unlock the potential in Holtz.
The fourth line would be a combination of Nosek, Lazar, McLeod, and Bastian likely depending on who is playing well and who the opponent is for that game. With the first three, you have dominant faceoff players who can help Ruff protect a young defense corps.
Let Them Play
In this scenario both Foote and Holtz push their way into the starting lineup and Ruff has to choose between his three 4Cs. It also switches Bratt and Meier for those who want to see the Hughes – Meier combination.
- Bratt – Hischier – Mercer
- Meier – Hughes – Holtz
- Palat – Haula – Toffoli
- Foote – McLeod – Bastian
Top Six
Holtz flourished in the preseason last year playing with Hughes and Palat, here the lineup takes advantage of that past. Meier slots in with Hughes to provide more 200-foot play as well as a winger willing to go into the corners to retrieve the puck. Like Hughes, Meier is a volume shooter and a puck carrier which would necessitate allowing some time for this group to work out their roles. While Bratt and Mercer rarely played together last season, the short sample results are positive, as they put up a 78 xGF%.
Bottom Six
General manager Tom Fitzgerald has said he wants to have the best top-nine in the NHL. It would be difficult to find a better third line in the entire league than Palat, Haula, and Toffoli. This should be the preferred third line for Ruff as it would allow Toffoli to acclimate slowly to the system. Once used to each other, the group should flourish offensively in matchups against other third lines and could be utilized to shut down opponents.
The fourth line in this scenario pairs Foote’s size, heavy shot, and strong board play with the team’s two most physical forwards in McLeod and Bastian. This would be a formidable forechecking line that could pin teams deep in their own zone. With Lazar and Nosek waiting in the wings, the line could just as easily be Foote, Nosek, and Lazar and provide similar attributes.
Mix Up the Blender
This is an admittedly unlikely scenario but certainly plausible. Here there are changes to all four lines due to moving Mercer back to his natural center position.
- Bratt – Hischier – Meier
- Palat – Hughes – Holtz
- Haula – Mercer – Toffoli
- Foote – Nosek – Bastian
Top Six
Meier and Bratt are interchangeable on the wings but this restores them to their original, natural positions and would make for a formidable 200-foot line. This grouping reunites the prolific preseason “H2O” line that was the best Holtz has ever played in a Devils uniform. Having seen Ruff’s penchant for throwing the lines into the blender, this top six is certainly plausible. Other options considered included the media’s least favorite line of Meier, Hughes, and Haula as it is nearly impossible to tell numbers 96, 86, and 56 apart from up in the press box high above the ice.
Bottom Six
Again, the third line would be one of the top ones in the NHL. With Toffoli’s scoring and the two-way play of Mercer and Haula, this line would dominate against lesser third lines. Haula has experience playing the wing both last season with Hughes and during his time in Boston. The fourth line again brings the highly anticipated Foote into the mix and pairs him with Nosek and Bastian, which would likely be the starting line should McLeod be unavailable for any reason. Ruff could easily slide Lazar in for Nosek or Bastian should injury or play dictate such a move.
There is no telling which lines Ruff and his staff will deploy in the season opener against the Detroit Red Wings, however, these four combinations show that they are not lacking for options.
All advanced stats are taken from the websites Moneypuck.com and Naturalstattrick.com