Part of the reason the New Jersey Devils acquired Timo Meier ahead of last season’s trade deadline was to give them a boost for the 2023 playoffs. But they were also thinking big picture with the move, and after signing him to an eight-year extension worth $8.8 million annually earlier this summer, the big picture is now in place.
Joining a new team midseason can be difficult. It takes time to adjust, especially in a system as unique as head coach Lindy Ruff’s. Now having gotten plenty of games under his belt with the Devils, they’ll have Meier for his first full season in the Garden State. And they should be expecting big things from him.
Meier Showed His Potential After Trade
Even though Meier did need some time to adjust after joining the Devils, his numbers were still quite good. He finished with nine goals and 14 points in 21 games — a 35-goal, 55-point pace over 82 games. Though he didn’t total a point in the Devils’ seven-game series against the New York Rangers, which they won in seven, he was a thorn in their side and continuously annoyed Igor Shesterkin.
Meier’s counting totals were solid with the Devils, but his advanced stats were even better. He finished with a 59.96 expected goals percentage (xG%) during the regular season, ranked third on the team; only Damon Severson and Tomáš Tatar had a better xG%. The Devils also controlled over 60 percent of grade-A and grade-B chances with him on the ice.
Seeing advanced stats like that from Meier shouldn’t be a surprise. Before the trade, he was one of the San Jose Sharks’ best five-on-five player drivers, with a 57.84 xG%. They weren’t generating much offense if he or Erik Karlsson weren’t on the ice.
Power forwards like Meier don’t always have his makeup, but that’s what makes him unique and why he puts up some big numbers and stats. He’s a high-volume shooter and finished seventh in the NHL in shots on goal with 327 this past season. But he isn’t just a shooter. He can do much more than that, which you’ll see in his microstats.
Meier excels in transition and can create plenty off the rush. Though he only finished with 25 assists this past season, he’s a very effective passer and will create plenty of chances for his teammates, not just for himself. While he is a high-end offensive facilitator off the rush, he can also generate plenty of offense in-zone:
He’s clearly not a one-trick pony. And while everything above is at five-on-five, Meier is a force on the power play. Where he plays on the Devils’ top power-play unit in 2023-24 remains to be seen. They’ll have some decisions to make on roles after acquiring Tyler Toffoli, but he will be a factor in a unit that has plenty of firepower.
Ruff Will Use Meier All Over the Top-9
Ruff used Meier all over the top-nine after the Devils acquired him, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if that happened again over 82 games this coming season. To start, though, he should undoubtedly get a look in the top-six alongside Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes.
Meier spent about 93 minutes with Hischier after the trade and posted a 68.03 xG% while controlling over 68 percent of the grade-B chances and 73 percent of the grade-A opportunities. They were together for nearly the entirety of the Rangers series, alongside Jesper Bratt, and dominated at five-on-five despite not scoring much in that series. Perhaps a combo of Meier, Hischier and Toffoli clicks and gives the Devils a dominant first line to start 2023-24.
Related: Devils/Rangers Rivalry Will Be Must-Watch This Season
While it may not have felt like Meier spent much time with Hughes post-trade, he actually played more alongside him (108 minutes) than Hischier. Their results were impressive, as they posted a 61.13 xG% at five-on-five. They will get some minutes together during the preseason, perhaps alongside Alexander Holtz or Dawson Mercer.
I know there was plenty of frustration on social media when Ruff used Meier on the third line, but there was a good reason behind it. Put one of Meier, Hischier and Hughes on different lines and create matchup nightmares for your opponents. My guess is we’ll see less of that this season, but it won’t go away altogether.
Let’s say Holtz breaks out and is ready for a top-six role. That gives Ruff plenty of flexibility in what he can do with his lineups.
- Bratt – Hischier – Toffoli
- Ondrej Palát – Hughes – Holtz
- Meier – Erik Haula – Mercer
If the Devils can field a top-nine like this at any point, there will always be at least one line that will avoid matching up against opponents’ top defense pairs and shutdown lines. That’s an advantage that not many teams have and something I suspect Ruff will continue using to his advantage if Holtz breaks out and gives him that option.
Expectations for Timo Time
Meier is coming off the first 40-goal season of his career, but I’m not sure expecting 40-plus goals in 2023-24 would be fair. Despite being a high-volume shooter, he isn’t an elite finisher; he just converts on his chances because he gets so many of them. He’s averaged 34 goals and 67 points per 82 games since the start of the 2020-21 season, which seems like a good ballpark range for him in his first full year with the Devils.
I’d also expect his playmaking to rebound after having some poor luck in that department a season ago. But no matter what, he will be a force that helps the Devils have one of the most dynamic offenses in the NHL in 2023-24.
Meier 2023-24 season prediction: 31 goals, 37 assists and 68 points in 77 games
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick