Pierre LeBrun reported on TSN’s Insider Trading that the Columbus Blue Jackets and forward Patrik Laine are looking to facilitate a fresh start for the player. The former 2016 second-round pick’s season ended after just 18 games with a broken clavicle. Soon after suffering the injury, Laine checked himself into the NHL’s Player Assistance Program to treat his mental health.
LeBrun indicated that after a procedure to clean up shoulder issues and an expected discharge from the program, Laine should be ready to begin the season on time. At 26, with nearly 500 NHL games in eight seasons under his belt, Laine looks to be headed to his third team. If the price is right, the New Jersey Devils should take a chance on making Jack Hughes’ left wing his new home.
Laine is the Most Talented Player Available
If you believe Ottawa Senators general manager Steve Staios that Brady Tkachuk is not available, then Laine is arguably the most purely talented player available this off-season. His ability is undeniable. At one point, there was a legitimate debate about whether he should be chosen ahead of Auston Matthews in the 2016 NHL Draft. His career began with him living up to the hype by scoring 138 goals in his first four seasons as a Winnipeg Jet. Since his trade to the Blue Jackets, he has missed considerable time due to injury, but his counting stats have been better than they may appear, especially considering he played on teams with a dismal power play. Despite the team’s ineptitude, in his first two full seasons with Columbus, Laine posted 108 points in just 111 games, only 30 of which came via the power play.
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Laine is a pure goal scorer, averaging .43 goals per game. He is an elite shooter who does not need space or deception to beat a goalie. In some ways, he is a bigger (6-foot-5, 210 pounds), younger version of Tyler Toffoli as a Devil. Toffoli’s numbers in New Jersey closely mirror Laine’s career averages. Toffoli’s career numbers are not equivalent, but his success on the Devils’ power play alongside Hughes is a harbinger of the synergy that could exist for Laine in New Jersey.
Devils Need a Right-Shot Top-Six Scorer
The one element lacking from the Devils’ top six and power play is a bonafide right-shot sniper. Alexander Holtz has the potential to grow into that role, but he has not earned the team’s confidence despite the opportunity. The balance that Laine could bring to a power play unit of Hughes, Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Dougie Hamilton would instantly vault the team into the top tier of power plays just on talent alone. Laine’s shooting skill would open the ice for Hughes to make plays. At even strength, the Devils also lack a pure right-shot goal scorer. With the chance of Holtz being moved to acquire a goalie or other pieces, Laine would be that much more valuable.
Dawson Mercer is currently the only right-shot forward penciled into the top six, but he is more of a 200-foot player who scores around the net than a pure shooter like Laine. The Devils may also give Mercer a shot at earning the 3C role in the new head coach Sheldon Keefe’s system, furthering the need for a right-shot forward. Toffoli proved that Hughes can thrive with a proven scorer and doesn’t need a second play driver to succeed.
Laine Comes With Risk
Laine’s desire to be traded and have a fresh start is being honored by Columbus, who is also looking to reshape their roster. A team would not be looking to move on from a player as talented as Laine without a good reason. For Columbus, that reason is a confluence of physical injuries, mental health issues, and new leadership looking to put their stamp on the team. General manager Don Waddell just began his tenure in Columbus after a successful run at the helm of the Carolina Hurricanes. The honeymoon phase is the perfect time for him to clear cap space, tear down the team, and build from the ground up while he still has the full support of the organization and the benefit of the doubt from the fans.
Laine has suffered injuries in each of his seasons with Columbus. He doesn’t suffer from a particular chronic injury but seems to have misfortune when it comes to injuries. In the last three seasons, he has sprained his ankle, fractured his clavicle, and strained his triceps, all leading to significant missed time. He also was the victim of an illegal hit to the head by Calgary Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson that caused him to miss time earlier this season and resulted in a suspension for Andersen.
While out with the broken clavicle, Laine checked himself into the NHL Player Assistance Program to get treatment for his mental health issues. He remained in the program through the season’s conclusion but expects to be discharged before the start of next season. Despite rumors and innuendo to the contrary, Laine is viewed by his teammates as a leader in the room and someone who works hard and puts the team’s needs ahead of his own. His effort is not questioned in the locker room. There are several examples of players who have found success after taking time in the assistance program to deal with mental health issues. Most prominent of those is this season’s Bill Masterton Trophy winner, Connor Ingram, who has publicly acknowledged his battle with depression and OCD and the success he had in using the assistance program to find the help he needed.
Can the Devils Afford Laine?
At his current cap hit of $8.7 million, the cost is prohibitive without some offset. The simplest way to make the transaction work would be for the Blue Jackets to retain at least 25% of Laine’s salary. The teams could look for a third team willing also to retain a portion of Laine’s salary to bring down his cap charge to the Devils in exchange for a draft pick or other asset. If the Devils can find a way to get a third-party broker to bring the salary down to under $5 million, they can manage it under their current cap structure. The other option would be for the Devils to send Columbus a player or players with enough salary to offset a portion of the cap hit. For example, sending Kevin Bahl and Nathan Bastian would eat into almost 25% of Laine’s salary.
Should the Devils find a way to get Laine for under $6 million annually, then there is room for him under the cap and still room to acquire Jacob Markstrom or another top goalie in his salary range. It would certainly strain the Devils’ finances, but a player with Laine’s ability can take a chance on it because the potential reward is at least equivalent to the risk, if not substantially higher. The Devils could use low-cost players to fill the bottom-six roles with the remaining cap space. The other advantage is that Laine is only signed for two seasons, meaning his money will be off the cap when the Devils have to start paying some of their young talent.
What Does a Trade Package for Laine Look Like?
With the Blue Jackets and Laine’s desire to start over now being public, the team has lost much of its leverage to make a trade. The only way for them to shift that balance is through salary retention. Columbus has a retention slot available and would surely consider it should a sufficient sweetener exist. A Devils package should start with Bahl. The behemoth defenseman would fit well into the Blue Jackets rebuild and provide an instant partner for Damon Severson. Last season, Bahl and Severson played to the highest expected goal percentage (64.1%) of any Devils defense pair on the team. His presence may help Severson ignite his play in his second season in Columbus. The Devils would certainly be willing to add in draft picks, and a player like Bastian may also benefit from an increased role and new surroundings.
The Devils need to add experience and snarl to their defense, making Bahl expendable. The other option would be to trade Jonas Siegenthaler or John Marino to offset the salary impact of acquiring Laine. Either could be replaced with a heavier player like Brendan Dillon or Brayden McNabb. The final option would be to find a third-party broker to do double retention like the Devils did for the Dallas Stars in the Chris Tanev trade. Even within the construct of a hard salary cap, where there is a will, there is usually a way, and New Jersey has the assets to make the deal happen if Laine and the Blue Jackets are willing to deal with them.
Laine is going to be moved; he and Columbus have indicated that a fresh start is in the best interests of the team and the player. It is not every day that a team is looking to jettison a 40-goal scorer. That does not happen unless there are legitimate concerns about the player. Notwithstanding those concerns, the Devils would be wise to work with Columbus to try and find a way to acquire Laine. He solves several problems the team has been grappling with for at least the last two seasons and puts a bonafide, right-shot sniper in their top six and power play, the final piece to that puzzle.
