When the New Jersey Devils acquired Jonas Siegenthaler ahead of the 2021 trade deadline, they were taking a gamble and hoping he’d break out after not getting much playing time in Washington with the Capitals. His underlying numbers with the Capitals suggested there could be more to his game, and the Devils were right.
Siegenthaler had a breakout season in 2021-22 and showed the Devils he could be a shutdown top-four defender. But it was a bit more up and down for the 26-year-old defender this past season, and it’s fair to say he regressed a bit. Let’s look back on Siegenthaler’s 2022-23 and what to expect of him for the upcoming season, which will be the first of a five-year extension he signed in 2022.
Siegenthaler’s Hot Start Cooled Off Quickly
It’s not hyperbole to say Siegenthaler was one of the best defensive defensemen in the NHL in 2021-22. His even-strength defense was worth an expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 10.3, ranked first among all skaters, forwards included. He finished with a total xGAR of 9.7 and a total GAR of 14.4, making him one of the Devils’ most valuable players.
Siegenthaler finished 2022-23 with a total GAR of 14, but how he got there was much different than the previous season. That number was propped up by playing alongside Dougie Hamilton, who finished with 22 goals and 74 points in 82 games. GAR places more emphasis on finishing than xGAR, which can sometimes skew a defenseman’s performance.
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That’s where xGAR comes in since it paints a better picture of Siegenthaler’s up-and-down year. He was far from awful defensively, but he wasn’t the dominant force he was in 2021-22. His even-strength defense was worth an xGAR of 2.9, a fine enough rate that placed him in the top 75 among NHL blueliners.
The reason for Siegenthaler’s regression was a prolonged slump that came after a scorching hot first month of the season. There aren’t moving-average charts for xGAR or GAR, so we’ll use a five-game moving average for Game Score instead. Of note, the beginning of the season starts on the right side:
You’ll notice that around American Thanksgiving is when Siegenthaler’s Game Score average started to decline and bottom out right through February before moving upward again. Besides a minor blip at the end of the regular season in April, he had a solid close to 2022-23 and performed well for the Devils in the playoffs. For those unfamiliar with Game Score, it’s an all-encompassing stat that uses traditional and advanced stats to measure a player’s value for a single game.
Why Did Siegenthaler Slump?
Siegenthaler’s Game Score started to dip before John Marino missed a few weeks with an injury from around New Year’s until the all-star break. But it notably began to creep upward once Marino returned in early February.
That’s one reason why Siegenthaler struggled a bit. With Marino out, he had to log the difficult defensive minutes alongside Hamilton. But another is a breakout pass he tends to attempt quite frequently in the defensive zone.
When behind the net, the left-handed Siegenthaler sends the puck up the wall on his strong side to a forward near the blue line. But teams were picking up on it as the season went on and taking that play away from him. Essentially, he became a bit too predictable with his breakouts, which Jack Han pointed out back in February (it was a team problem too):
It’s probably not a coincidence this tweet came shortly before Siegenthaler’s rebound in February. I’d imagine the Devils noticed that was an issue in his game and worked to correct it, which could explain why his game improved to close the season.
That’s the one thing Siegenthaler needs to work on this season: becoming a more consistent passer. He doesn’t need to be Hamilton or Luke Hughes, but becoming less predictable would help him. His defensive game was still there for the most part last season. He defended the rush well, and though he gave up a bit more quality when on the ice, he was still one of the Devils’ better shot suppressors.
Expectations for Siegenthaler in 2023-24
Siegenthaler spent an overwhelming majority of his minutes with Hamilton this past season — 1018:42, to be exact. I’d expect head coach Lindy Ruff will want to start Siegenthaler alongside Hamilton this season since they posted an expected goals share above 55 percent last season. But Hamilton is not the only partner Ruff can turn to for Siegenthaler.
Ryan Graves and Marino were the Devils’ shutdown pair in 2022-23, but that will change this coming season since Graves signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins in free agency. If Ruff wants a legit shutdown pair again, it’s worth giving thought to experimenting with Siegenthaler alongside Marino.
Siegenthaler and Marino did not log a single minute together last season, so it’d be a totally new pairing. But given both of their track records defensively, they have the potential to be a legit shutdown pair. And with Marino’s underrated puck-moving ability, they should be able to transition the puck up the ice without getting hemmed in much.
Though Siegenthaler may have regressed this past season, he was still a capable top-four defenseman. At worst, he’ll be a top-four blueliner in 2023-24, but I’d expect him to bounce back and look closer to his 2021-22, especially if he becomes a more consistent passer.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey