The New Jersey Devils have been inconsistent throughout the first half of the season.
They are now in sixth place in the Metropolitan Division with a 19-14-2 record (40 points). However, they’re only six points behind the second-place Carolina Hurricanes, with three games in hand. The division has proven to be extremely competitive, as second and seventh place are separated by just six points.
This is the fourth edition of a biweekly series called Devils Stock Market. As always, players go through ebbs and flows. This series looks at the biggest standouts right now – both good and bad – and emphasizes certain trends in their play.
So, let’s begin with the positive…who’s trending up?
Stock Up: Luke Hughes ($LUKE)
Let’s put the numbers aside for a second. Did you see Luke Hughes’ end-to-end rush against the Columbus Blue Jackets? My goodness.
Over the summer, Ken Daneyko said on the Shout At The Devils podcast, “I don’t ever compare too much, but I’m going to. We talked about Scott Niedermayer and (Luke Hughes) has got that kind of pedigree…”
It’s hard to argue with Mr. Devil on that one. Hughes has 21 points in 35 games, which puts him on track for ~50 points as a 20-year-old rookie. Not too shabby.
He’s still learning his way in the NHL but has improved with each passing game. He’s quarterbacked the power play well, aside from a few small hiccups that even veterans have. His quick adaptation has allowed him to play just under 20 minutes a night.
At even strength, he leads all Devils defensemen (min. 20 games played) with a 58.23 Corsi-for percentage (CF%). When he’s on the ice, the Devils have generated a whopping 70 more scoring chances than they’ve given up. Not only does that speak to his smooth-skating, elite offensive capabilities, but also to his impressive defensive play.
It’s rare for a 20-year-old to find themselves in the 76th percentile defensively. So when you combine that with his offense, it projects to be an elite, maybe even franchise defenseman.
His advanced stats (via Natural Stat Trick) would suggest two things that bode well for the rest of the season. First, that he’s been a bit unlucky, as the Devils have scored 24 goals when he’s on the ice compared to 27.98 expected goals.
Second, the numbers suggest he was weighed down by playing alongside Brendan Smith for the majority of the season (28 games). When they were on the ice, the opposition scored ten goals, and the Devils scored just twice. Their expected goals for percentage (xGF%) was an abysmal 40.59%. When Hughes has been paired with any other defenseman, that number jumps well past 50% – including 62.97% when paired with John Marino.
Hence, we’ve seen the luck start to turn for Hughes since he’s been paired with Marino. He’s scored a goal in three straight games and has five points in that span. I’d expect Hughes to continue to establish himself as an elite defenseman as the season progresses.
Stock Down: Jonas Siegenthaler ($SIEGS)
In the summer of 2022, Jonas Siegenthaler signed what, at the time, seemed to be a very team-friendly extension – 5 years, $17 million. He spent the entire 2021-22 season as arguably the best shutdown defenseman in the league. He followed that up with a bit of an up-and-down 2022-23 season but was still mostly solid, finishing with a plus-27.
This season, however, the Devils’ defense has continued to give up chances in prime scoring areas. A lot of that goes to the downtrend of Siegenthaler, who has looked way less confident and, frankly, like he’s lost his ability to shut down top opponents.
At 5v5 this season, the Devils have given up 25 goals with Siegenthaler on the ice…and only scored 20. The fact that they aren’t even a net-positive from their top shutdown defenseman is beyond concerning. Last season, Siegenthaler was able to complement Dougie Hamilton’s free-range play very well. They generated 61 goals and only gave up 38. This season, the pairing was getting outscored by one (11-10) before Hamilton’s injury.
With Hamilton out of the picture, Siegenthaler does not have the offensive capability to consistently chip in himself. Hughes has worked so well with Marino, and there’s really nobody else on the backend who can consistently create offense to pair with Siegenthaler.
Related: Jack Hughes is Breaking Records for the Devils in 2023
As a result, Siegenthaler needs to be a premium shutdown defender like he was two years ago to be net-positive, and he simply hasn’t been. Last season, there was a slight downtrend in his play in correlation with a minor wrist injury that he played through. But the fact that it’s been a full year and he’s essentially fallen off a cliff is alarming.
Hopefully, whatever has caused Siegenthaler’s play to fall off is temporary, and he can return to being an essential piece to this Devils team.
Stock Up: Michael McLeod ($MM)
Since the playoffs last season, Michael McLeod has been dynamite. He’s unlocked a whole new level of confidence and started to emerge as one of the best bottom-six forwards in the league.
McLeod’s 57.26 xGF% ranks fourth among Devils forwards, and the execution has been there to boot. His plus-8 rating currently leads the team. In only 35 games, his seven goals are already two shy of his career-high set in 2020-21. In just about every aspect, he’s chipped in. He plays well on the penalty kill. He’s shown discipline; in previous seasons, he had 42, 52, and 53 penalty minutes, respectively. This season, he has just six.
He also has the highest faceoff win percentage in the league (66.3%) and has had multiple nights when he didn’t lose a single draw. It’s extremely rare for a bottom-six player to be able to dictate play the way McLeod does, but shot attempts are a whopping 476-to-375 (+101) when he’s on the ice.
At times, he’s needed to slot into a top-six role and has held his own. In fact, the play of Dawson Mercer and Timo Meier have both skyrocketed since they recently got moved down to the third line to play with McLeod. Players like McLeod are invaluable to teams with championship aspirations. It sounds cliché, but he’s consistently done the little things right. On a team that’s been so inconsistent, McLeod has been one of the lone anchors.
Stock Down: Tom Fitzgerald ($GMTF)
Look, this isn’t to bash general manager Tom Fitzgerald, who has been so crucial to the (mostly) successful rebuilding of the Devils. But over the summer, he made it clear that he didn’t have full faith in the goalie corps and was considering making a move.
After mulling his options, the season began with the only goaltending acquisition being Erik Kallgren, who started 10 games for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season with a .898 save percentage (SV%). In 10 games with the Utica Comets of the American Hockey League (AHL), he went 1-5-2 with an ugly .853 SV%. In fairness, nobody could have seen Akira Schmid and Vitek Vanecek falling this much in just one season. But the bottom line is, Fitzgerald’s decision to not grab an NHL-caliber goalie is now costing the Devils.
The Devils, as a team, are sixth with a 53.77 xGF%. In total, they’ve generated 144 more scoring chances than their opponents. So, why are they 17th in the league standings, and why is their differential between *actual* goals and *expected goals* a 21-goal difference?
The answer is goaltending. With the Maple Leafs’ Ilya Samsonov being sent down to the AHL, Vanecek’s minus-12.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx) is now the worst among active NHLers (via MoneyPuck). And no other goaltender has stepped up in the meantime. Schmid wasn’t as putrid, with a minus-3.8 GSAx – but still a minus nonetheless, and now he’s been sent down to Utica.
As a team, their .879 SV% is the worst in the league. Hypothetically, if the Devils had just league-average goaltending, they’d have an extra ~20 goals, which would extrapolate to about five more wins. That would have them at 24-9-2 and 50 points…tied with the Winnipeg Jets for fifth in the league and just a point behind the first-place New York Rangers with a game in hand.
…And that’s with all the injuries, inconsistent line combinations, defensive pairings, etc. So again, while it’s hard to fault Fitzgerald, his decision to wait it out backfired heavily. There’s no better time than the present to make a goalie move. Unfortunately, that may be easier said than done as the market is extremely scarce, and teams can charge a premium as a result.
What Devil Are You Investing In?
It’s been a breath of fresh air to see how well McLeod and L. Hughes have performed. On the other hand, the downtrend of Siegenthaler and the inability to get consistent goaltending have been detrimental to the team.
Will Fitzgerald make a move soon, and will the other issues work themselves out, or will the team continue to be inconsistent as best? Time will tell.