The New Jersey Devils’ offense was dynamite a season ago, especially at five-on-five. That should be no different in 2023-24, especially after adding Tyler Toffoli through a trade with the Calgary Flames. How does their top-six compare to the rest of the Metropolitan Division? Using Daily Faceoff’s line combos as a template, let’s compare the Devils’ top-six to their division foes.
Devils’ Projected Top-6 for 2023-24
Before getting into other teams’ top-sixes, let’s set the table by providing the Devils’ top-six. After adding Toffoli, their unit should look something like this:
- Timo Meier – Nico Hischier – Dawson Mercer
- Jesper Bratt – Jack Hughes – Toffoli
Obviously, there are different combos head coach Lindy Ruff can use, and someone like Alexander Holtz could throw a wrench into these units. But for the sake of simplicity, these players should be the Devils’ primary top-six skaters.
Meier spent plenty of time alongside Hischier after the trade to the Devils last season, as did Mercer. They logged some minutes as a trio, and I suspect Ruff will give them a chance during preseason games. Bratt and Hughes were dominant together in 2022-23. They’re elite play drivers and should set up Toffoli for plenty of scoring chances if that’s a combo that clicks.
Now that we have the Devils’ top-six, let’s look at what else they’ll be going up against in the Metro this season. We’ll start with the Carolina Hurricanes and work down the 2022-23 standings.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes may lack an elite scorer like Jack Hughes, but they still have a well-rounded top-six with plenty of firepower. They signed Michael Bunting via free agency this offseason, and he should fit in well with the grinding, forechecking style of hockey the team plays under coach Rod Brind’Amour. Here’s what their top-six should look like:
- Bunting – Sebastian Aho – Seth Jarvis
- Andrei Svechnikov – Jesper Kotkaniemi – Martin Necas
Aho is one of the best two-way centers in the league and will be good for around 30 goals and 70-plus points. Bunting is a solid player capable of 20-25 goals and 50 points, but Jarvis is the key to the Hurricanes’ first line taking a step forward. He stagnated a bit this past season, but if he suddenly turns into what the Devils have in Mercer, the Hurricanes’ first line becomes much more dynamic.
The weakness of the Hurricanes’ top-six is having Kotkaniemi as their second-line center. He showed a little more scoring upside in 2022-23, totaling 18 goals and 43 points in 82 games, but the strength of his game is defensively. Compared to the Devils, who use Hughes in a second-line role, it’s a clear win for New Jersey.
But even though Kotkaniemi is the weakest part of the second line, Svechnikov and Necas are high-end scorers capable of 30 goals and 70-plus points. The Devils’ top-six is probably a bit more dynamic than the Hurricanes and has better finishing talent, but the gap between the two units is minimal. That’s why these two teams should be battling for first place in the Metro in 2023-24.
New York Rangers
Because of the salary cap, the Rangers had limited space to make additions and improve their roster this summer. They did sign Blake Wheeler to a one-year deal worth $800,000. He’ll fit in as a right wing on one of the first two lines, but otherwise, their top-six should look similar to last season:
- Chris Kreider – Mika Zibanejad – Kaapo Kakko
- Artemi Panarin – Filip Chytil – Wheeler
Daily Faceoff has Vincent Trocheck as the Rangers’ second-line center. But after Chytil’s breakout season, he seems like a better bet and fit to take on that role.
The Rangers’ top-six is different from the Devils in that they lack elite play drivers but have elite finishing talent. Kreider is one of the best finishers in the league because of his knack for getting to dirty areas and capitalizing on his chances. Zibanejad has a lethal shot, while Chytil is an underrated shooter himself.
Wheeler and Panarin aren’t the shooters or finishers that Kreider, Zibanejad and Chytil are, but they’re the ones who’ll get the pucks to the team’s scorers due to their high-end playmaking ability. The Rangers’ top-six likely won’t dominate play at five-on-five like the Devils’ should, but they will put up points.
Related: Rangers’ Shesterkin Sees Hughes as Toughest Opponent
Maybe the Devils have the slight edge here because Bratt, Hughes, Hischier and Meier can all drive play, which is important in the long run. But it’s close to even due to the Rangers’ finishing talent.
New York Islanders
The Islanders made no significant moves for the second offseason in a row. They re-signed some of their pending unrestricted and restricted free agents, but they’ll essentially run back the same top-six again:
- Oliver Wahlstrom – Bo Horvat – Mat Barzal
- Anders Lee – Brock Nelson – Kyle Palmieri
Horvat is coming off a career year, but he already showed signs of regression after the trade from the Vancouver Canucks. He’s turned into a much more effective shooter over the last couple of seasons, so another 30-goal campaign isn’t out of reach. But he’ll likely come in closer to the 60-point range.
Barzal is one of the weaker shooters in the NHL, but his skating and playmaking are top-notch. That’s why Horvat is a good bet for another 30-goal year if Barzal skates on his line. The issue with the Islanders’ first unit is having Wahlstrom flanking those two. They need more from the former first-round pick, who has yet to break out in the NHL and show he can be a top-six winger.
Nelson is coming off back-to-back 30-plus-goal seasons and, like Horvat, has become a more effective shooter over the last couple of seasons. Will he put up 75 points again? That remains to be seen, but he’s an underrated second-line center.
Lee is still capable of 25-30 goals, while Palmieri still has some juice left in his game. He needs to stay healthy, but he did produce at a 24-goal, 49-point pace last season. Still, the Islanders’ top-six does not have the dynamic threat or talent of the Devils’ top-six. They have some scorers, but the Devils have five players who scored 30 or more goals last season and one who had 27 in Mercer. Advantage to New Jersey.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins may be the oldest team in the NHL, but they still have some high-end talent, with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin leading the way. They lost Jason Zucker to the Arizona Coyotes in free agency but did acquire Reilly Smith from the Golden Knights. Here’s what their top-six should look like:
- Jake Guentzel – Crosby – Rickard Rakell
- Smith – Malkin – Bryan Rust
The caveat to the Penguins’ top-six is that Guentzel will likely miss the first few weeks of the regular season due to injury. But once he returns, he will end up back alongside Crosby. He’s been a staple on Crosby’s line for years, and given their results, that probably won’t change this season.
Rakell spent plenty of time alongside Guentzel and Crosby, and their results were quite good as a unit; they posted a 58.03 expected goals percentage (xG%) in 554 minutes. I’d imagine coach Mike Sullivan returns to that trio once Guentzel is healthy.
Smith has been one of the best second-line wingers in the NHL for quite some time. He’s averaged 25 goals and 52 points per 82 games over the last three seasons and has posted solid metrics at five-on-five. Likewise, Rust has been a solid top-six winger himself. Even though his production fell a bit last season, he had some poor shooting luck, meaning a bounce-back may be in store.
The Penguins may have only one player under 30 in their top-six in Guentzel, who’s 28 and will soon turn 29, but they are still a talented bunch. Crosby is still a top-five center, while Malkin showed last season that he still has plenty of gas left in the tank. The Devils get the edge because they are a faster, younger and more dynamic group than the Penguins, but don’t count out Pittsburgh just yet. They still have plenty of talent.
The Rest of the Metro
The Washington Capitals have an interesting group of forwards. Alex Ovechkin is still Alex Ovechkin, and they’ll have a healthy Tom Wilson, but the group lacks a dynamic threat outside Ovechkin. Max Pacioretty could help add some scoring if he’s healthy, but he’s also coming off two straight torn Achilles. T.J. Oshie isn’t the player he used to be, while Evgeny Kuznetsov has been inconsistent over the last couple of years.
Nicklas Backstrom is coming off a significant hip procedure and may not be the player he used to be. Wilson is also the only player under 30 years old among their top-six. They might have Ovechkin, but the Devils’ top-six outclasses the Capitals after years of it being the other way around.
Based on their offseason moves, it’s pretty clear the Philadelphia Flyers won’t be contenders this coming season. Travis Konecny leads the way in their top-six, as he’s coming off a career year that saw him put up 31 goals and 61 points in 61 games.
The problem for the Flyers is the rest of the unit. Sean Couturier is an unknown after missing all of last season due to a back injury. Likewise, Cam Atkinson missed all of 2022-23 due to injury. Even if they’re healthy, they may now be in decline.
Joel Farabee is a solid player but has yet to emerge as a true top-six talent. Owen Tippett has become a solid winger capable of 25-30 goals, but the Flyers’ top-six lacks game-breakers. The Devils have the clear edge here, too.
Last but not least is the Columbus Blue Jackets. They have a base to build around with Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine and Kent Johnson. Drafting Adam Fantilli third overall can’t hurt, and he should have an immediate positive impact on the team.
Still, the Blue Jackets’ top-six is missing a couple of pieces, most notably a second-line center. Cole Sillinger took a step back in his sophomore year, but he’s the Blue Jackets’ most viable option as a second-line center if he can bounce back. The Devils have the edge over the Blue Jackets, but their top-six has talent. They’ll be able to score goals, especially with Kirill Marchenko showing sniper potential. It’s the other parts of their roster (defense, goaltending) with question marks.
Devils Have Built Up Their Scoring
The Devils’ top-six is what most teams will be envious of long-term, along with the Hurricanes’. But even for 2023-24, the Devils should have one of the best top-six units in the Metro. They have at least five players capable of scoring 30 goals, and more importantly, they have elite play drivers in Bratt, Hughes, Hischier and Meier.
The Hurricanes and Rangers will be right there with them. They have different makeups: elite finishing talent for the Rangers and a grinding, forechecking style with the Hurricanes. And despite their age, the Penguins still have big-time scorers, especially once Guentzel returns from surgery.
Still, it’s hard to say there are top-six groups in the Metro better than the Devils and Hurricanes. The Rangers are a close third, but they don’t have the play drivers the Devils and Hurricanes do. And that’s part of why the Devils should be contenders for first in the division in 2023-24.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick