Though the New Jersey Devils and general manager Tom Fitzgerald still have some housekeeping to do, they got their last significant bit of business done yesterday, signing Timo Meier to an eight-year extension at a cap hit of $8.8 million. The deal comes with a no-move clause in the first four years and a modified no-trade clause in the final three years.
The Devils acquired Meier from the San Jose Sharks at the trade deadline in a package that included Fabian Zetterlund and prospect Shakir Mukhamadullin going to San Jose. Meier finished the 2022-23 season with 40 goals and 66 points in 78 games between the Sharks and Devils. With him and Jesper Bratt signed long-term, the Devils now have their own Core 4 and one of the league’s best top sixes. Let’s look at Meier’s contract, how it compares to others around the NHL and the Devils’ long-term cap outlook.
Meier Does It All
The Devils had plenty of talent before acquiring Meier, but didn’t have a power forward with his skill. It’s getting rarer nowadays to find a winger with his makeup who can score 30-40 goals, play physically, and drive play. But that’s exactly what he brings to the team’s roster.
Meier didn’t find points right away with the Devils, but with him now settled in and being familiar with the team’s system, I’d expect him to get off to a hot start in 2023-24. Based on his previous results, that should certainly be the expectation. He’s always been an efficient five-on-five scorer and has posted impressive shot metrics at that game state.
Over the last three seasons, Meier has totaled an expected goals percentage (xG%) of 51 percent or better each year. In his brief stint with the Devils, he finished with a 59.96 xG%. And when looking at his strengths, it’s easy to see why his xG% is consistently in the mid to upper 50s and even touching 60 percent.
For a winger, Meier is an excellent play driver. He can create off the rush, ranking in the 71st percentile in rush offense this past season and the 73rd percentile in rush shots. His in-zone offense is among the best in the league, as Meier ranked in the 97th percentile in in-zone shots and 89th percentile in in-zone offense. While he isn’t Jack Hughes or Bratt in transition, he’s highly effective in moving the puck in the neutral zone, specifically through controlled zone entries.
What’s also unique about Meier as he’s one of the highest-volume shooters in the NHL. He finished this past season with 327 shots on goal, one more than he had in 2021-22. That’s why he’s a good bet for 30 to 40 goals a season. He’s not necessarily an elite shooter, but just on volume alone, he’ll find the back of the net fairly often. When looking at his player card, there really aren’t glaring weaknesses in his game:
With Meier locked up long-term, the Devils now have four premier players in their top-six with him, Hughes, Bratt and Nico Hischier. The team also recently acquired Tyler Toffoli from the Calgary Flames, so he’ll be in the mix too. And don’t forget about Dawson Mercer, who potted 27 goals this past season, and the possibility of Alexander Holtz finally breaking through. With Meier likely not heading for a decline anytime soon, it should make for one of the NHL’s best top-six units for quite a while.
Meier’s Contract Should Age Well
There’s no doubt Meier is worth the $8.8 million cap hit the Devils gave him. Had he become an unrestricted free agent a year from now, he could’ve easily gotten above $9 million a year. How does his contract compare to others around the league? And how could it age over time?
Looking at comparables on CapFriendly, Matthew Tkachuk and Bratt come up as the closest matches to Meier (about 85 percent). Devils fans will be familiar with Bratt’s extension, as they signed him to an eight-year deal at a cap hit of $7.875 million just a few weeks ago, nearly identical to Kevin Fiala.
Tkachuk signed an eight-year extension with the Florida Panthers at a cap hit of $9.5 million just last summer. Had Meier become a UFA in 2024, his next deal would’ve likely looked close to that. Tkachuk is one of the best wingers in the league, if not the best. He has better impacts than Meier, but both players do many of the same things without glaring weaknesses.
Related: Devils Sign Timo Meier to Massive 8-Year Contract
Tkachuk is a high-end two-way winger who drives play at an elite level. He’s a force on the rush, creates a ton of in-zone offense, and is one of the best passers in the game. Like Meier, they both excel at forechecking, though Meier has a slight edge in the neutral zone, specifically regarding zone entries with possession.
It’s not the perfect comparison for Meier, but Tkachuk is the closest based on production, player type, and impact on the game. While I see some comparison to Bratt, given age and production, they’re essentially polar opposite types of wingers stylistically. Meier is a power forward coming off a 40-goal season and has topped 30 three times in his career. Though Bratt is coming off a 32-goal campaign, Meier has more of a track record, and consistent goal-scorers with his makeup tend to get more money.
Meier’s contract should age pretty well too. Even by the time the sixth, seventh, and eighth years of his deal roll around, he still projects to be providing positive offensive value without his defensive game falling off much at all:
Now that the Devils have Bratt and Meier signed for the next eight years, they have a pretty good idea of what their cap situation will look like not only for 2023-24 but at least the next few years as the salary cap projects to rise somewhere above $90 million.
Devils’ Cap Outlook
After signing Meier to a cap hit of $8.8 million, the Devils have just a bit over $10.2 million in cap space to work with this offseason. They still have to re-sign restricted free agents Kevin Bahl, Jesper Boqvist, Michael McLeod and Nathan Bastian, but none of those players should cross cap hits above $2 million.
Still, if the Devils want to make more external additions, perhaps adding defensive depth or a goalie, they will have to find ways to give themselves some cap flexibility. Elliotte Friedman mentioned on the June 28 episode of The Jeff Marek Show that “if the Bruins’ goalies are available, the Devils are probably talking to [Boston].” Linus Ullmark has two years left at a cap hit of $5 million, so they might need to find a third-party facilitator to retain his cap hit. Jeremy Swayman is an RFA who could get around $4 million on a new deal, so they’d also have to find a way to make that work financially.
But in the long term, the Devils’ cap situation looks pretty clean. They have their Core 4 in Bratt, Hughes, Hischier and Meier, so they’re likely to add relatively inexpensive complementary players moving forward, as they did in acquiring Toffoli and his $4.25 million cap hit from the Flames. They project to have a bit above $24 million in cap space next offseason and about $37 million in the following year. And this is with an $83.5 million cap ceiling and not with the big jump that should push it above $90 million in a year or two.
Overall, there isn’t much to quibble with regarding Meier’s extension. Is it a bit higher than I anticipated or would’ve liked? Sure, but not by a number that should come close to hurting the Devils moving forward. They know who to build the team around, and that’s because one of the NHL’s best top-six groups is locked into place for years to come after extending Meier.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, microstats from Corey Sznajder/JFresh Hockey