Tonight mark’s the start of the New Jersey Devils’ first playoff series since 2018. Their first-round opponent won’t be an easy draw, as the New York Rangers have a talented group capable of making another run in the Eastern Conference. That means the Devils will need contributions from more than players named Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt and Dougie Hamilton. Here are a few players who could be X-factors if New Jersey is to come out as the winner in this best-of-seven series.
Tomáš Tatar
Tomáš Tatar had a disappointing first year with the Devils in 2021-22, but he rebounded this season, totaling 20 goals and 48 points in 82 games, a significant step up from the 15 tallies and 30 points he had a year ago. As was the case during his three years with the Montreal Canadiens, he posted some fantastic underlying numbers with the Devils this season.
Not only was Tatar one of the Devils’ best play drivers, but he was one of the best in the league. He finished the season with a 62.79 expected goals percentage (xG%), and the Devils outscored teams 61-28 with him on the ice at five-on-five. It wasn’t just because of his offensive game, either, as he was one of the best defensive wingers in the NHL this season:
In Montreal, Tatar was part of a dominant line with Brendan Gallagher and Phillip Danault. It’s taken some time to find a similar combination in New Jersey, but head coach Lindy Ruff seems to have found one with Tatar, Hischier and Dawson Mercer. That trio posted a 65.59 xG% in 267 minutes together while outscoring teams 18-10 during the regular season. They’ve generated an outrageous 4.04 expected goals per 60 minutes while only giving up 2.12, making for the best line combo the Devils have used this season.
Tatar is no stranger to playoff struggles in his career. He has only 12 points in 40 career postseason games, but there’s an opportunity for him to exorcise those demons on a line with Mercer and Hischier. Tatar comes into the series against the Rangers having totaled eight points in his last ten games, and the chemistry with Hischier and Mercer is undeniable. Expect him to find the scoresheet more consistently than in previous playoff appearances.
Erik Haula
If there’s a Devils skater who should be feeling good about himself heading into the playoffs, it’s Erik Haula. Acquired in the trade that sent Pavel Zacha to the Boston Bruins last offseason, Haula got off to a slow start with the Devils, with just five goals across his first 62 games. But he turned it on down the stretch, finishing with nine in his last 20.
Related: Devils vs. Rangers: 2023 Playoff Series Preview
It’s not as if the scoring chances weren’t there for Haula. He was getting plenty of them but had rotten shooting luck, only converting on four percent of the shots on goal he generated through his first 62 games. The hockey gods reversed his fortunes for the final third of the season, and he ended up with 14 goals and 41 points, close to his averages over the previous three years.
While getting scoring depth from Haula against the Rangers can’t hurt, he impacts the game in other ways. He’s a key member of the Devils’ penalty kill, where his 54.2 faceoff percentage will matter. And he’s been a valuable defensive forward, as his overall defense ranks in the 78th percentile on Evolving-Hockey’s goals/expected goals above replacement player cards. With Timo Meier and Jesper Boqvist likely starting the series as his linemates, there’s a good opportunity for him to help provide scoring depth behind the top six.
Damon Severson
Damon Severson is not without his flaws, but with John Marino on the second pair and logging the difficult defensive minutes, Severson has benefited from playing on the third pair. His counting totals aren’t what they were a season ago — 46 points to 33 — but it hasn’t been for the lack of creating chances.
Since the Devils acquired Marino to be a shutdown defender, Severson has feasted offensively playing against teams’ depth players and alongside Jack Hughes and Hischier. He finished the regular season with a 60.68 xG%, first among Devils defensemen and second on the team to Tatar. The result is having some of the best offensive impacts for a blueliner leaguewide in 2022-23:
Logging ice time with players like Hughes and Hischier obviously helps, but Severson is an underrated offensive defenseman. He’s one of the team’s most efficient puck-movers off the rush from the back end, showing an innate ability to exit the defensive zone cleanly with puck possession. And there aren’t many blueliners who can open up the game with a stretch pass from his own end like him.
Sure, Severson is prone to defensive gaffes, but his offensive ability outweighs the bad. Ruff won’t try to mix up the formula for Severson at this point. He knows he excels offensively, so he’ll continue to log those minutes with Kevin Bahl as his defense partner. That should give the Devils a sizable advantage over the Rangers’ third defense pair of Niko Mikkola and Braden Schneider, who have a host of liabilities that Severson does not have.
Luke Hughes
Luke Hughes has only played two NHL games since the Devils signed him to his entry-level contract after the Michigan Wolverines were eliminated from the Frozen Four a couple of weeks ago. But it’s hard not to be impressed by what he’s done so far. He was one of the Devils’ best players in their regular-season finale against the Washington Capitals, a 5-4 overtime win in which he scored the game-winning goal. His underlying numbers in that game were fantastic, as he posted a 73.18 xG%.
Based on line rushes during practice over the last couple of days, Luke won’t be in the lineup for Game 1. With that said, I think there’s a decent chance he’ll make an appearance at some point during the series. Even though he’s only 19 years old and only has two games of NHL experience, it was easy to see what he brings to the table during that Capitals game. He played well defensively, and he could add another explosive element on the back end. If things go awry or Ruff thinks he needs more offense from his blueliners, I’d expect him to check into the lineup.
Ondrej Palát
The Devils signed Ondrej Palát to a five-year, $30 million contract in free agency last summer. His first season in New Jersey did not go well, as he only totaled eight goals and 23 points in 49 games. Injuries played a part in the struggles, as he underwent groin surgery in November and missed two-plus months before returning in early January.
Now, the Devils hope he can regain form in time for the playoffs. He played a significant role in the Tampa Bay Lightning making their third straight run to the Stanley Cup Final a year ago, with 11 goals and 21 points in 23 games. He was instrumental in helping the Lightning rally from two games down against the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final during that run as well.
Palát will begin the series on a line with Jack Hughes and Bratt, who he played well with down the stretch. There aren’t two better players to help him get going in the playoffs, and if history has anything to say, he will make an impact in some way for the better against the Rangers.
X-Factors Can Make the Difference
Your star players need to be your star players in the playoffs, but it can never hurt to get depth. The Devils have that depth entering their series against the Rangers. And if players like Severson, Haula, Palát and Tatar find the scoresheet consistently, the Devils should find themselves advancing to Round 2 if their star players play like their star players.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey