Tonight marks the arrival of the 62nd Entry Draft in NHL history. For the second time in three years, the Anaheim Ducks are slated to pick third overall. The last time they held this position, they selected Mason McTavish, who in two short years has become a foundational piece of the rebuilding roster. History has revealed to us that if you manage to obtain a top-five position in the draft, then you have a good chance to select a really good NHL player. So, conventional wisdom suggests that you should keep the pick. But what if the Ducks didn’t?
State of the Ducks Heading Into Tonight’s Draft
Years of play ranging from mediocre to terrible gave the Ducks a stockpile of high-first and early second-round picks, which they have used to select Trevor Zegras (9th overall, 2019), Jamie Drysdale (6th overall, 2020), McTavish (3rd overall, 2021), Olen Zellweger (34th overall, 2021), Tristan Luneau and Pavel Mintyukov (53rd and 10th overall, 2022), and Leo Carlsson (2nd overall, 2023). This collection of players (minus Drysdale), along with Troy Terry, a fifth-round pick in 2017, and Cutter Gauthier, also a first-round pick, unquestionably comprise the future of this organization.
All of these players have NHL experience under their belt. Only Luneau and Gauthier, if they make the NHL roster next season, will be playing their rookie season. This young core is complemented by a veteran supporting cast in Cam Fowler, Radko Gudas, Alex Killorn, Frank Vatrano, and Ryan Strome. General manager Pat Verbeek is armed with spending money this offseason as well, so we could be in store for an interesting free agency period.
Related: 5 Reasons to Be Excited About Remainder of Ducks’ Offseason
Coming off another dismal season during which they went 27-50-5 and missed the playoffs for the sixth straight time, the Ducks head into the offseason in an interesting position. That record suggests the Ducks are far off the path from contending for a playoff spot. However, their highly-touted prospect pool marks the biggest reason for optimism, and the fact that they can add to that pool tonight truly is an embarrassment of riches.
Ultimately, someone needs to posit the question: is there such a thing as too much young talent? Do you really want, or is it even effective, to have your entire core under the age of 23? Let’s discuss the merits of keeping the pick, or trading it in a package that could net an impact player.
The Case for Keeping the No. 3 Pick
To be clear, picking third overall is an excellent opportunity. As I said before, drafting that high usually means you’ll get to select a player that really has the potential to be an impact NHL player. Here at The Hockey Writers, we’ve discussed the Ducks’ options at length. If they want to load up on defense, where they are slim on the right side, then Anton Silayev and Artyom Levshunov are options. Should they feel inclined to pick a forward, then Ivan Demidov is an option. Until the young Ducks prove that they can keep the puck out of their net, or produce offense at even an average clip, then we can say the Ducks have needs on both sides of the puck. The point is, there probably isn’t a bad way to go here.
The most obvious pro of keeping the pick and selecting one of the many dynamic prospects after Macklin Celebrini is that the Ducks get another player to throw into their young mix. The core is far from solidified or proven, so netting another player with top-six forward or top-four defense pairing potential, objectively, pushes everyone else and deepens the reservoir of talent.
On the other side of the coin, a strong argument can be made that another 18-year-old, who is unlikely to make the roster for at least a season or two, is just not going to give the Ducks, who have a good combination of young players and veterans, the immediate help that they need to take significant steps forward. A lottery pick carries the potential to be part of a juicy trade package for an impact player. So, let’s now look at the case for trading the pick.
The Case for Trading the No. 3 Pick
We talked about the young core of this team. Even if some, let alone all, of the aforementioned core play up to or exceed their draft position in terms of on-ice performance, this roster is going to get crowded in a hurry. Unless players start taking pay cuts, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where every single one of them is retained. For starters, Mintyukov, Zellweger, Zegras, and Carlsson become restricted free agents after the 2026-27 season. If Luneau and Gauthier begin their rookie deals next season, then theirs will expire the offseason after. Gudas and Fowler will come off the payroll at their current rate the same offseason, which helps things, but do you see the problem?
Adding another player around this age can get messy. We haven’t even talked about the Ducks’ pipeline, which includes Nathan Gaucher, Tyson Hinds, Noah Warren, and others. This presents an opportunity to use the third overall pick as a bargaining chip. It would probably need to be packaged with another young player or additional picks, but there’s an opportunity here to net something that, quite frankly, the Ducks haven’t had in a long time, which is a true impact player that can advance the Ducks’ fortunes overnight.
Ducks fans know all too well that the roster has lacked game-changing talent since Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry were in their prime. Even then, it wasn’t until the Ducks acquired Ryan Kesler in the 2014 offseason that they took off and sustained playoff success. Before that, it was the acquisition of Chris Pronger, and the signings of Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermayer. First-round draft capital, or first-round talent, is coveted by every NHL club these days. It is always part of the asking price in trade discussions.
The Ducks have a surplus of that and a deficit in proven game-breakers. Acquiring one to work with the collection of young talent they would still have after any player movement would do wonders for the franchise. It won’t make them Stanley Cup contenders overnight in the way those previous acquisitions did, but it would certainly accelerate their path back to playoff contention. There’s no way to know what Verbeek and his team are thinking, but it seems that considering all options is the right thing to do.
What Will Tonight Bring?
The Ducks are no strangers to big draft day trades. Pronger’s acquisition and trade both occurred on draft weekend, in 2006 and 2009, respectively. They are also no strangers to supreme draft positioning. Logic suggests that some of their young talent will work out, and some won’t. Look no further than the Edmonton Oilers, who swung and missed long enough until they won the Connor McDavid sweepstakes.
The point is, the Ducks, loaded with young talent as they are, need needle movers if they are to take meaningful steps forward anytime soon. Maybe they get one in free agency. Maybe they trade for one. Maybe one of their rostered players breaks out in ways no one foresaw. Whether they keep tonight’s lottery pick or not, the Ducks are in the enviable position of having what so many other teams want and need: young, explosive talent. We’ll see what Verbeek does with it this offseason. Stay tuned!
Do you think Verbeek is considering at all the idea of moving the third overall pick, or any of the young core, for an established, impact star player? Let us know in the comments below!
