Say what you will about the timing of this prediction, but contract talks seem to be a focal point in any market in the NHL under the hard cap. This is more so the case, however, in a market driven by the heavy cap hits of their core five players as is the case with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Now, Brad Treliving has come in and locked up both Auston Matthews and William Nylander for the foreseeable future and while that certainly makes the majority of the fanbase happy, question marks now circle around two particular players and their futures beyond their current contracts. One is star forward Mitch Marner. The other is 33-year-old captain John Tavares who has one year left on his contract beyond this season.
While the cap is increasing which will give the team some breathing room as their cap constraints have limited their recent activity both in season and during the offseason, Tavares future with the team remains a question mark beyond the 2024-25 season. With that in mind, what if the Maple Leafs decided to re-sign the veteran forward? What would a contract for him look like if he was willing to come back to the Maple Leafs on a discounted contract?
Here’s a look at how that contract could break down.
Tavares’ Current Contract Carries Weight
In the current climate of the NHL, Tavares contract does carry some weight on the Maple Leafs. Especially because they have their hands tied with the current breakdown of their cap. As for their leader, he’s in the sixth year of a seven-year contract signed back in the summer of 2018 with one year left at $11 million.
At the time he signed the contract, it made up for 13.84 percent of the Maple Leafs’ cap with their young stars still on earlier deals in their respective careers. What makes this contract even more favourable for Tavares is that it has carried a no-move clause since the day it was signed and that doesn’t change until it expires following the 2024-25 season.
As it stands, Tavares is the second-highest paid player on the roster this season behind only Matthews and will sit third behind Matthews and Nylander next season. That said with Marner due for a contract after 2024-25 as well, Tavares will have to take a pay cut to remain a member of the Maple Leafs moving forward.
Maple Leafs Could Re-Sign Tavares For Cheap
Gaging both sides, there seems to be interest in a renewal of some kind when his contract expires. Let’s face it, Tavares will be on the verge of turning 35 when his contract expires and while he could still be a useful centre, it likely will be in a bottom six role.
As of now, he’s lived up to every dollar of his current contract based solely off offensive numbers. In his six seasons with the Maple Leafs, he has 168 goals and 389 points in 407 games — almost averaging a point per game. This season he’s seen a slight decline with just 13 goals and 35 points through 47 games, but it’s still impressive considering he’s 33 and playing second fiddle to the team’s young stars.
Assuming he continues to digress offensively over the next season and a half, Tavares and the Maple Leafs could be looking at a new contract affordable for the team and acceptable for the player. But what exactly would that look like?
Currently, when it comes to 35+ contracts in the NHL, Alex Ovechkin is the top paid player over that age with a cap hit of $9.5 million and a salary of $12.5 million. From there, it’s quite the drop off to Evgeni Malkin at a $6.1-million cap hit and $6-million salary and Kris Letang’s $6.1-million cap hit and $8-million salary.
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Now, Stanley Cups usually carry a little extra salary in player negotiations — an unwritten rule of sorts in contract negotiations. Tavares lacks that negotiating tool. On top of that, he’s a Toronto kid who would likely enjoy closing out his career as a member of the Maple Leafs. So, chances are he would sign for under the $6.1 million that both Malkin and Letang are getting.
Next to the two Penguins’ players, Nick Foligno is fourth on that list with a $4-million cap hit — a contract that Tavares would likely come out on top of based solely on his career. So, with that in mind, a new contract after the 2024-25 season could see Tavares come in around $4.5 to $5 million per season — a big step back for the veteran, but one that would keep him in blue and white and help the team improve.
Maple Leafs Should Consider Re-Signing Tavares
Considering where that number comes in — and let’s remember it’s just a prediction of what we could see — the Maple Leafs would have to strongly consider bringing back the first overall pick from 2009.
Call it loyalty. Call it a soft spot for a Toronto kid that grew up wearing Maple Leafs’ pyjamas, but what he’s brought to the organization since coming over has been consistency and offensive production. Even if it takes a slight step back, Tavares has become a net front presence for the Maple Leafs on the power play, an area he’s succeeded in with the high-powered offence.
With the increases in the cap that we’re seeing over the next couple of seasons, $5 million per season wouldn’t break the back of the organization in terms of trying to add piece to better their chances come playoff time. The one thing playing against Tavares right now is the overall success of the team — a team that he’s been a part of for the past six seasons.
But, that can’t all be held against him and the lack of playoff success surely boils over to a much larger organizational problem. So, with that said, would it be worth bringing Tavares back on a short-term deal in the range of $5 million?
He’s 72nd all-time in goals (440) and 96th all-time in points (1,010). He’s put in a lot of time and effort in trying to produce for his team over the years. Why wouldn’t the Maple Leafs give him one more kick at the can — a two or three year deal in the range of $15 million. Let’s face it, it’s not exactly out of the question with one year to go.
Even if it is an early prediction, look for the Maple Leafs and Tavares to sign something prior to his deal expiring after the 2024-25 season.