The Edmonton Oilers have the NHL’s best power play in the playoffs. At 36.8%, they are still slightly above the Colorado Avalanche in terms of production, and this is despite the fact the power play has gone 5-for-18 in their series with the Vancouver Canucks and 0-for-8 in the last two games. Now heading towards a Game 7 winner-takes-all contest on Monday, that same power play could mean the difference between moving on to face the Dallas Stars or the end of Edmonton’s season.
The Oilers can win on Monday night without a power play goal. The team proved they could be dominant 5-v-5 with a 5-1 win on Saturday in Game 6. Still, capitalizing on their chances to score when up a man could mean the difference between a nerve-wracking and stressful end to the series, and a chance to confidently skate into the Western Conference Finals feeling good about their game.
What’s Gone Wrong With the Oilers Power Play?
Credit goes to the Canucks for pressuring hard and giving little space and time to the Oilers’ top performers. It was the first time any team had looked like they had a solution for the league’s most deadly weapon. Still, in Game 5, Edmonton’s power play was terrible. The Oilers went 0-of-5 and their biggest threat to score looked disjointed all game.
In Game 6, the team did look more composed and they were creating. Edmonton failed to score, but they were getting looks that didn’t come in Game 5. The Oilers spent 7:40 seconds on the man-advantage in Game 5 and made little of their few looks. Game 6 offered less time (5:05), but came close on a couple of instances. Some of the same problems existed — too much passing and Connor McDavid failing to shoot.
The good news is, that fixing the issue should be easy. Keeping it simple has been an issue of late for the Oilers and McDavid’s choice to pass up open looks has effectively removed him as a weapon or threat to score. He’s the most dynamic player in the NHL, but the Oilers are overthinking things. Getting back to basics and doing what has worked repeatedly should be something the Oilers, and will do.
Are the Odds in the Oilers’ Favor?
As Rob Brown pointed out on the Got Yer’ Back podcast, that Edmonton has hit a dry spell of late has a silver lining. No power play this good can stay without a goal forever. The idea that a unit that was over 45% and 9-for-20 against the Kings (who had a strong penalty kill in the regular season) would continue to struggle so badly seems illogical. As Game 6 showed, you can’t hold the game’s best down for long.
Related: Oilers’ 4 Bold Moves by Knoblauch That Led to Game 6 Win vs. Canucks
The Oilers need to work to draw penalties in Game 7 and play the odds by shooting. The Leon Draisaitl goal-line one-timer is unstoppable, Zach Hyman gets his looks in front of the net, and McDavid is always roaming. Each needs to do what they do. The Canucks can’t stop every option.
In particular, McDavid’s shooting percentage on the power play is 6.2%. Compared to Draisaitl at 33.3%, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at 25%, and Hyman at 23.5%, McDavid’s lower numbers are an incredible outlier. As the designated playmaker, his percentages were always a bit shy of the others, but in the regular season, he was connecting at a rate of 11.1%. His percentage in the series with the Kings was 12.5%. He’s taken eight PP shots in this series and scored no goals. Odds suggest that the trend can’t continue.
What Happens If Edmonton Figures It Out?
The fact the Canucks have taken 10 penalties in the previous two games and 18 in the series suggests the Oilers will get at least three looks on Monday night. They need to score on at least one of them. Should they be able to do so, the team can continue to press 5-vs-5 and potentially hold a lead versus chasing the game.
The penalty kill has done its job, allowing only three goals on 20 attempts, but there will come a time when the Canucks take advantage. There are too many good offensive threats on the Canucks’ roster to expect they won’t pot at least one. Edmonton needs to beat Vancouver to the punch.
