The Edmonton Oilers got off to a shockingly bad start to the season record-wise. Pucks just weren’t going into the net for them and every shot by their opponents seemed to find its way into their goal. This saw them start the season 2-9-1, good for the very bottom of the standings with a huge hole to dig out of. The loss to the San Jose Sharks on Nov. 9 sealed the fate of former head coach Jay Woodcroft. While the players and most fans didn’t want to see him go, the Oilers were bound to get better and have the luck start turning in their favour.
While Woodcroft was seen as a scapegoat for general manager Ken Holland’s moves and the team’s bad luck, Kris Knoblauch has made this team better in the areas where there have been struggles over the past number of years. After seven wins in the past 10 games and four in a row, the Oilers are now just three games below .500 at the quarter season mark and trending upward fast. It’s not going to be easy for them the rest of the way, but what they are doing, every player has to keep it up. The Oilers may be even more motivated than they were before showing up at training camp as a team earlier than they needed to. Remember, this was a Stanley Cup contender heading into the season and they are trending in the right direction to get themselves back into the playoffs for a fifth straight season.
So what are the Oilers’ chances at making the playoffs this season? We’ll look at the remaining schedule, how the team has been playing lately, the PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage) and how it’s trending, and trades that should be incoming to make the team even better soon.
Oilers’ Remaining Schedule
The Oilers have eight games to go to get to game 30 of the season. Those opponents aren’t the toughest. To this point, 12 of the 22 games the Oilers have played have been against teams sitting in the playoffs as of Dec. 1. Of the 60 remaining games, 30 are against current playoff teams. That of course should change, but in the favour of the Oilers. They still have a number of games against teams the Oilers’ big guns such as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl tend to feast on like the Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks, Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Chicago Blackhawks to name a few. This also factors in that teams like the Arizona Coyotes, St. Louis Blues, and Detroit Red Wings will be able to hold their playoff spots all season.
To put things in a better light, I’ve broken down the remaining schedule for the Oilers into intervals. Over the next eight games, the Oilers match up against three opponents holding a playoff spot. For games 31-40, only four of the 10 sit in a playoff spot. The same goes with games 41-50. When the Oilers get deeper into the season and have games 51-60, it is finally time for them to have a more difficult stretch and play against six teams in a playoff spot at this time. But as I alluded to, two of those opponents are the Coyotes and Blues. Games 61-70 is back to only four opponents in a playoff spot until the final 12 games of the season is where the Oilers will really be tested. Hopefully by that time they are in a much better spot in the standings.
The final 12 games of the season features nine opponents holding a playoff spot right now, but the Coyotes are opponents for two of those games and the Blues are an opponent for one. The Oilers have six home and away games, so it is a good mix and they either aren’t stuck at home or getting tired out on the road. Another way to look at it is when really good teams are close to the end of the season, there’s not much to play for as they prepare for the playoffs. Some players may sit or be healing up and there may not be the same intensity. The Oilers matchup against the Dallas Stars once, Vegas Golden Knights once, and Colorado Avalanche twice in the final stretch. This could come into play.
Since the Oilers have already gone through one of their toughest stretches of the season opponents-wise, it should be smoother sailing for a while, but the intensity can’t let up. Realistically, the Oilers could find themselves in a playoff spot by the end of December at this rate and with the calibre of opponents they’ll face.
Oilers Have Picked Up Their Play & Luck Has Started to Turn
Since Knoblauch has taken over as head coach, there is a big difference in the quality of the Oilers’ defensive play. Yes, they did collapse in a few games in a row on their south-east road trip in Florida, but for the most part, the goals against have been down and the penalty kill has been very good. The team has killed 33 of 37 penalties since Nov. 13 (Knoblauch’s first game as head coach) for an over 89 percent success rate. This was a killer early in the season as goaltending also played a part. Many say the goalie has to be the best penalty killer, and the Oilers just couldn’t get a save. Even with this great run, Edmonton still has a 78.2 PK% on the season, good for 21st in the league.
To go along with the PDO improving for the Oilers, goals have started to come. The Oilers have scored three or more goals in 10 consecutive games going back to the game before Woodcroft was fired. Only three of these games have the Oilers only scored three goals too — every other game has been more. In only five of the first 12 games did the Oilers score at least three goals and were held to one or zero three times.
A big reason why the Oilers have found success is the goaltending. Stuart Skinner has seemed to have found his game, but he will be worn out if there isn’t a goalie acquired. This I’ll get into below. There are fewer odd-man rushes against and fewer pucks finding the back of the net as a result. With better goaltending, the team doesn’t have to chase games and be forced into mistakes and more chances against to try to score. In the Oilers’ come-from-behind win against the Winnipeg Jets on Nov. 30, they played very patiently and didn’t force too much while playing from behind. When they were trailing early in the season while dominating the game, frustration got to them and they couldn’t come back. The victory over the Jets was the first time they scored fewer than four goals and won this season, and that’s a good sign things are starting to click.
The Oilers are now ranked ninth in the league in goals with 73, but still have greater highs to reach. At five-on-five, they are second in the league in expected goals percentage (56.6), but have just a 45.65 goals percentage this season, which ranks 27th. This will continue to move to the mean as the season progresses as there can’t be that much domination without breaking through more than the Oilers’ have. The Oilers have been expected to score 53 goals at five-on-five this season, but have only scored 42. They have also only been expected to give up 40 goals, but have given up 50. Their goal differential is minus-8, but should be plus-12. That’s a huge difference of 20. That will get better and has recently. Through 22 games, the Oilers still have the second-worst PDO in the league at even strength. While some teams are going to regress, the Oilers’ PDO will get better, allowing them to score more and save more at the same time, resulting in many more wins than they’ve gotten thus far.
Oilers Should Make an Early-Season Trade
The Oilers have been fortunate enough to not have many back-to-backs thus far, but they will have some throughout the rest of the season. With how many games Skinner has started in the past 15, he is on pace to start more than 70. That is not sustainable, especially not for a 1A/1B goalie in his second year. The Oilers need help in net — and have been searching for it and scouting teams with a netminder to spare — but nothing has come about just yet. Though Skinner has been playing better, he needs a rest and someone to lean on at the same time if he struggles. The ideal number of games for him is around 40-45, not 60 which he is on pace for right now.
The Oilers have had their eyes on teams like the Montreal Canadiens and Blue Jackets, but the Detroit Red Wings and Sharks also have goalies that could be moved. There are options and something needs to get done (from “How the Edmonton Oilers crease fell apart and their trade options to fix it”, EP Rinkside, Nov. 28, 2023). I believe it will and whatever move ultimately occurs will make the Oilers better for the rest of the season season. The team can’t count on an American Hockey League (AHL) goalie in Calvin Pickard to pull a Jordan Binnington and take the Oilers to the Stanley Cup — like Binnington did with the Blues in 2019 — if Skinner struggles mightily again. The Oilers have the pieces and can’t blow this season. Whether a defenseman is acquired or not, goaltending is the biggest concern and absolutely needs to be addressed. The defense can hold it together this season well enough.
Related: Oilers’ Trade Wish List Should Be Topped by 3 Right-Shot D-Men
There is now hope for the Oilers after almost all seemed lost to many early in the season. They are a good team that has had some extremely bad luck, but it has already started to turn from them. There is a long way to go until the season is over and I like their chances at making the playoffs in a weak Pacific Division. What they do after they get that far is a later conversation.