Erik Gustafsson has emerged as a significant contributor for the New York Rangers, notably stepping in during Adam Fox’s injury earlier in the season. Gustafsson’s impact was immediately felt. That impact was most apparent on the Rangers’ top power-play unit, where he admirably filled the shoes of one of the NHL’s top defensemen and kept the unit as one of the NHL’s most lethal. His box score numbers have been solid, although they have trailed off a little.
In his initial 20 games with the Rangers, Gustafsson notched an impressive 15 points. However, over the subsequent 28 games, he has managed just eight points. This brings his total to 23 points in 48 games, which project to a 39-point pace for the season.
The recent decline in his scoring can be attributed to a change in his role within the team. While he got to play a top role with significant first-unit power play opportunities while Fox was injured, Gustafsson has been relegated to the Rangers’ spot-duty second unit with a third-pairing assignment at even strength. Nonetheless, he has delivered quite a bit of surplus value to the Rangers, considering his one-year, $825,000 contract.
Gustafsson’s Rising Stock May Price Him Out of New York
As the season progresses, Gustafsson’s future with the Rangers beyond 2023-24 is likely to become the subject of speculation. Currently an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, his performance may have positioned him beyond the Rangers’ financial reach. Even with the salary cap reportedly rising to $87.7 million for the 2024-25 season, the Rangers will only have approximately $15.3 million in cap space to re-sign Kaapo Kakko, Braden Schneider, and Ryan Lindgren. They’ll also have to tap further into that number in order to add a defenseman, three forwards, and a backup goalie.
Set to turn 32 in March, Gustafsson is likely seeking a contract that maximizes term and financial security, as this trip to free agency could potentially mark his last significant payday in professional hockey. Looking at contracts for comparable defensemen in recent free agency periods, such as when the Washington Capitals added Justin Schultz (two years at $3 million per year), when the Vegas Golden Knights signed Alec Martinez (three years at $5.25 million per year), or when the Toronto Maple Leafs inked T.J. Brodie (four years at $5 million per year), it appears Gustafsson is lining himself up for a significant pay raise.
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That could potentially place him outside the Rangers’ financial capabilities, especially considering how the Rangers are likely to prioritize spending their available dollars. Future financial considerations, such as upcoming extensions for Igor Shesterkin, Alexis Lafreniere, and K’Andre Miller after the 2024-25 season, mean that Gustafsson will most likely be donning a different uniform in the next campaign.
What if the Rangers Try to Keep Gustafsson?
The Rangers ought to seriously consider the prospect of retaining Gustafsson, given his invaluable contributions as a puck-moving defenseman. His proficiency in facilitating smooth zone exits and entries significantly complements the team’s dynamics, addressing a critical area where the Rangers have faced challenges.
Miller’s struggles this season, in particular, have highlighted the importance of having a defenseman in the lineup with Gustafsson’s skillset. Currently, Gustafsson, along with Fox, stand out as key figures in orchestrating effective zone transitions, an element that’s central to success in the NHL.
How the Rangers Could Keep Gustafsson
In order to keep Gustafsson, the Rangers would likely need to move money, which could involve trading players to free up salary cap space. One potential strategy could involve dealing Barclay Goodrow, who currently carries a $3.64 million cap hit. Another more contentious option highlighted by Bleacher Report is considering a trade involving Miller, who comes with a $3.872 million cap hit.
Opting to trade Miller represents a considerably riskier venture due to his substantial potential and youth. At 24, he stands out as a player with significant upside. While he has exhibited promising talent in sporadic bursts, he has yet to demonstrate the level of consistency that the Rangers need if they’re going to play into June.
So far this season, Miller has made mistakes in the defensive zone at an unacceptably high rate. He has, at times, made standout defensive plays, but those plays have been far rarer in 2023-24 than they have been in the past. This downturn in form for him, marked by defensive lapses and struggles in maintaining possession, underscores the complexity of the decision the Rangers are confronted with.
The Rangers face a tough decision with Gustafsson, balancing financial constraints against the clear value he brings to the ice. As a result, his future on Broadway following this season with the team remains uncertain.