With his goal and two assists in last night’s (Oct. 3) victory over the Detroit Red Wings, Connor Bedard now has five points in three games he has skated for the Chicago Blackhawks this preseason. With the start of the regular season less than a week away, one of the bigger questions surrounding the first overall pick in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft is how many points he will get in the 2023-24 season.
The answer to that question is not simple for a player considered a generational talent. As detailed earlier, Bedard has different circumstances than recent generational talents such as Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby. This has led to a wide range of predictions from NHL pundits, fantasy analysts, and oddsmakers. Let’s look at a sampling of what others think Bedard will do in the 2023-24 season.
The Hockey Media
This is one of the areas that has seen the biggest swing in predictions for Bedard’s point totals, as some like to make wild predictions in order to set themselves apart from their peers. Others sometimes have a bias one way or another that clouds their judgment on this issue. However, some offer realistic predictions while also giving sound reasons for their answers.
Jeff Marek of the 32 Thoughts: the Podcast recently weighed in on how many points he feels Bedard will get. He stated that he feels Bedard will get 66 points this season. He also stated that when he makes predictions on points, he will usually be conservative in regard to rookies. Marek also felt that the Blackhawks will have a challenging season, and the NHL regular season will be much more difficult than the preseason.
On the Blackhawks Talk Podcast, Pat Boyle gave one of the highest point predictions heard so far, saying that the 18-year-old will score 28 goals and have 61 assists for 89 points. Boyle’s co-host, Charlie Roumeliotis, feels that Bedard will be a point-per-game player, reaching at least 82 points. He feels that because the league’s goals-per-game average and the power play percentage average were at their highest marks since the 1993-94 season, this will give him an advantage in surpassing Patrick Kane’s 74 points in 82 games during his rookie season.
Nick Faris of the The Score felt that Bedard has a good shot to match Kane’s 72-point rookie season. He writes that trading for Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno, and Corey Perry, in addition to signing Ryan Donato and extending Andreas Athanasiou, gives Bedard a good chance to make a successful transition to the NHL. Faris, like others, also pointed out that no matter what level, Bedard has made a successful transition to each league he has moved into.
Fantasy Analysts
I tend to rely on points predictions from fantasy analysts more than others, as the people who do this have a reputation to uphold. If you make too many predictions that are not close to what a player actually produces, they will soon be out of a job. Because of this, people in that industry tend to be more analytical than emotional.
One of the lower totals comes from Tony Ferrari of The Hockey News, who feels that while 75 points are possible, Bedard has been projected to score just 65 points due to the lack of talent around him. Ferrari writes that while the native of British Columbia could possibly score 30 goals, his assist total will suffer due to that lack of talent. Ferrari has the lowest projection of the site’s analysts, as the consensus for Bedard’s point total in the preseason guide has him predicted to get 75 points.
In his preseason top 250 players, Michael Amato of Sportsnet has Bedard listed as the 47th best fantasy player for this coming season and feels he has the skills to reach 70 points, even with the lack of talent around him.
Jon Littleline of Rotowire, writing for Yahoo Sports, feels that Bedard should threaten 30 goals and 65-70 points as he will rack up a ton of shots on goal while offering significant power-play production, with a warning about how his fantasy value will take a hit in the plus/minus rating since he’ll be playing for a Blackhawks team that figures to once again be among the worst in the league.
Oddsmakers
While oddsmakers do rely on a lot of analytics to list odds, there is also more to this than what those in the fantasy industry rely on for statistics to make predictions. Making determinations on odds is like any other “market.” Betting odds are created through a “wisdom of the crowds” treatment — bettors all around the world buy and sell the line until it reaches the “correct” price. Making a bet in a casino or on a site means you’re also betting against the opinion of thousands of other bettors who have wagered into that line.
On the betting site bet365, they currently list the over for Bedard’s points at 67.5, a number that Sportsbook Reviews‘ Neil Parker disagrees with, listing his total points at over 72.5. “Bedard is going to skate in a top offensive role in all situations, and he’s already showing off elite offensive gifts during preseason competition,” Parker explains as his reason for a higher point total.
DraftKings has Bedard’s point total at over 69.5., while FanDuel has that number at 67.5. The rationale for these numbers, according to the Sports Gambling Podcast Network’s website, is that scoring is on the up-and-up around the NHL, and that resulted in 60 players finishing with 70 or more points last season and that Bedard is going to be playing with Taylor Hall on his left wing and probably Lukas Reichel on the right side. He’ll have some opportunities to not only score goals but get some helpers as well.
Related: Blackhawks’ Player Expectations for 2023-24 Season
The Blackhawks and Bedard will be a team to watch this season for many reasons. The number of goals and points he earns will have a direct impact on how much the team improves from last season, so the Blackhawks and their fans hope that the predictions from these experts are not on the low side for his rookie season in Chicago.
