Over the past few days, the fun and timely thing to do is suggest the Toronto Maple Leafs and Calgary Flames would make for strong trade partners. With the Maple Leafs not certain about the futures of Auston Matthews and William Nylander, and the Flames looking like the only thing left on their roster when the dust settles will be two players they just acquired from the Florida Panthers, on the surface, the trade fit seems logical.
Matthews to the Flames for any combination of Elias Lindholm, Mikael Backlund, and Tyler Toffoli has been thrown out there into the universe. Another trade suggested Toffoli-for-Nylander, with other parts likely part of that trade has been suggested too. Even Noah Hanifin’s name is out there to help the Maple Leafs on defense. The arguments in all cases are that the Flames need scoring help with the exodus of some of their stars and the Leafs need to make a decision on pending UFAs that haven’t officially committed.
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There’s a problem with most of these trade proposals: the players going back to Calgary are being told they are going to Calgary and the players coming to Toronto put the Leafs in the exact same spot they’re in now.
The Flames Are a Mess
The issue in Toronto is cap space and players using leverage to get the best deals possible as the salary cap increases over the next few seasons. In Calgary, that may not be as big of a concern because the team is poised to have all sorts of cap room if everyone rumored to be leaving does, in fact, leave. Offering Matthews $14 million per season or giving Nylander $10 million isn’t an issue for the Flames. Getting them to accept those deals might be.
For Matthews, he’s publicly stated he wants to stay in Toronto. The team is competitive, he likes it there, he’s familiar with the city and the fans, and he’s a celebrity in the biggest hockey market in Canada. The issue isn’t the location, it’s the dollar figure and how the team shapes itself over the next few weeks during a period of transition. Still, the Leafs are a tad nervous about the July 1 date because he holds a ton of leverage and they don’t want to find themselves backed into a corner.
That said, his situation in Toronto is a lot different than it would be in Calgary. Asking him to commit to the Flames, where the team is trending toward a rebuild seems like an insane gamble. He’s unlikely to do so with only a year left on his current contract and any trade to acquire him, which would take a massive haul from the Flames, would likely result in one year of strong production and the player leaving.
The same theory applies to Nylander, who has a choice to make at the end of the season and a rebuilding team might not be his preferred landing spot.
The Maple Leafs Want Term
If the Leafs are making a big trade to send either Matthews or Nylander out, they’ll want two things in return: players who can help immediately and players who are locked into some kind of term. In most of the trade scenarios thrown out there involving the Flames and Maple Leafs, the players coming back to Toronto are on expiring deals.
Lindholm has one year remaining at $4.85 million. Backlund has one year left at $5.35 million. Toffoli is in the final year of his deal at $4.25 million. Noah Hanifin is being paid for one more season at a rate of $4.95 million. In all cases, the players either have the freedom to test the market at the end of the 2023-24 season and/or they’ll be looking for raises. That’s a situation the Leafs are already facing and it makes little sense to sign up for more drama as pending UFA status emerges for everyone involved.
First-Year GMs Won’t Sign Up to Be Crucified
Imagine the kind of explaining Brad Treliving would have to do if he traded Matthews for what amounted to little more than one-year rentals who all left? In his first year as the GM of the Maple Leafs, he’d be setting himself up to be crucified by the fan base and media from the outset. If he knows that a player like Lindholm is committed to signing, that’s one thing, but at what cost? Moving Matthews or Nylander opens up the opportunity to move away from the idea of a core four, not just change one of its faces for a new one.
On the other hand, how does Flames’ GM Craig Conroy look if he trades for a huge star but can’t convince him to sign? Worse yet, what if he then has to subsequently trade him for pennies on the dollar at the deadline in a year the Flames aren’t expected to compete with such a depleted roster? It’s not a good look.
The trades proposed all ask Treliving and Craig Conroy to take a major risk. It’s a risk they likely don’t have to take when dealing with other teams. It’s important not to forget that when talking about potential trades these two teams might make over the next couple of weeks.