How quickly moods can change. After a 4-3 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday night (April 4), Calgary Flames fans were extremely frustrated, and rightfully so. Given their spot in the playoff race, that outing felt like a near must win, and they instead lost in regulation to one of the league’s worst teams.
Related: Why the Flames Could Be a Dark Horse in the West
While that loss remains a frustrating one, the mood in Calgary has been elevated thanks to a massive victory in a must-win game less than 24 hours later vs. the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets happen to be the team that the Flames are chasing for the final wild-card position in the Western Conference, and from a points perspective, it tied the two up with 89 apiece. Despite that, the Flames still have their work cut out for them and will need to be at their best over the course of their final three games if they want to get into this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Jets Have the Upper Hand
Though they are tied for points, the Jets’ chances at making the playoffs sit at 58.5 percent, compared to the Flames’ chances at 31 percent. Why, you ask? Well, there are two very big reasons, and they go to show just how big that loss to the Blackhawks on Tuesday was.
One is that the Jets have four more games compared to the Flames’ three. Games in hand only matter if you win them, of course, but that automatically gives Manitoba’s capital city the upper hand. The even bigger reason is that the Jets hold a tie breaker over the Flames if the two were to finish the season tied in points.
The first tiebreaker in that case goes to the team with more regulation wins. The Flames could still catch up in that regard, as they have 30 to the Jets’ 33. However, the second tiebreaker then goes to regulation and overtime wins. As everyone who has watched the Flames closely this season knows, games that have gone past regulation for this team haven’t resulted in many wins. That is proven by the fact the Jets have 42 regulation and overtime wins to the Flames’ 35.
With their 89 points and three games remaining, the highest point total the Flames can finish the season with is 95. This means that in order to make the playoffs, the Jets would need to amass no more than 94 points. In other words, if they were to win three of their remaining four, they will eliminate the Flames from playoff contention. In the same breath, if they were able to record just two wins but pick up two extra points in overtime or shootout losses, they would still clinch a postseason berth.
What this goes to show is that the Flames have essentially no room for error over their final three games. Let’s say for the fun of it they pick up four of a possible six points. That would put them at 93 points, meaning the Jets would only need to find a way to grab four points in four games. It is possible that could happen, but anyone thinking logically knows it isn’t all too likely.
Flames Do Have One Advantage
Though the Jets do control their own destiny as of now, the Flames do have one clear advantage, that being their schedule. Two of their remaining three games come against teams in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes in the Vancouver Canucks (tonight) and the San Jose Sharks (Wednesday, April 12). In between they will see a better team, albeit one still outside of the playoff picture in the Nashville Predators (Monday, April 10). No games in the NHL are freebies, and the Flames have proven that time and time again in 2022-23 by playing down to their competition. That said, this is a very team-friendly schedule to finish out the season, and one that is far easier than what the Jets have on their plate.
The Jets’ next two games will come against teams the Flames will also see in the Predators and Sharks, both games they should be able to pick up wins in if they play at their best. The following two, however, will be much more difficult. The first of those final two will see them face-off against the Minnesota Wild, a team who is just two points shy of being tied for first place in the Central Division. As if that weren’t difficult enough, their final game of the year will be played against the reigning Stanley Cup Champions in the Colorado Avalanche. Not only are they one of the top teams in the league from a talent perspective, but they are absolutely firing on all cylinders right now with eight wins over their past 10 games.
At the end of the day, the Flames have no one but themselves to blame for being in this difficult position. That said, they have shown enough resiliency to still be alive with just three games remaining in a season that many felt was over quite some time ago. They will need some help from other teams, but if they are able to win out, they may very well be playoff bound.
