A crucial offseason looms as the Philadelphia Flyers restructure their organization with changes at all levels. Head coach John Tortorella won’t be going anywhere after his first season in Philadelphia, and his input in player personnel during the 2023 offseason will be as influential as any other coach in the NHL.
“For me, the next step with this organization is: You don’t start adding players until you subtract them. I think there needs to be some subtraction. Those (topics) will be in discussions at the end of the year.”
-John Tortorella
Which players will be on the move? Interim general manager (GM) Danny Brière has openly talked about a long-term rebuild, and it’s become increasingly clear over the course of the 2022-23 season that 30-year-old Kevin Hayes is no longer a good fit with the Flyers.
Hayes, Tortorella At Odds
When the Flyers hired Tortorella in June 2022, the focus of the organization immediately shifted to the establishment of a new standard for performance on and off the ice for a team that had fallen drastically short of expectations in recent history. A newly-hired head coach with 20 years of experience behind NHL benches met virtually with the Philadelphia media for the first time and announced loud and clear that he was specifically looking forward to coaching Hayes.
“Kevin is one I’m anxious to work (with) because I think there’s more there. I think he’s a huge piece of the puzzle up the middle of the ice for this organization. He’s one I’m going to try to talk with right away…I’m going to be interested in what he has to say. I hear he’s a tremendous guy. I want to try to help him, because if I can help him and make him understand we’re going to try to get him to another level (with) what does he do for the Flyers organization up the middle of the ice. I’ve watched from afar, and there’s more there. It’s my responsibility to try and get that out of him,” he said.
The relationship hasn’t gone smoothly by any means this season, even after Hayes stormed out of the gates offensively on pace to shatter his career high in scoring halfway through the season. Tortorella has publicly challenged him to play better defensively, pushed him to the wing despite a long NHL track record as a center, benched him midgame in multiple instances, and sat him as a healthy scratch.
Regardless of what Tortorella says publicly about his personal relationship and interactions with Hayes, the two are clearly at odds. Hayes simply hasn’t met the standard that Tortorella has set for the long-term success of the franchise, and he doesn’t fit the timeline that the Flyers should expect before they reenter the conversation as playoff contenders.
“We still want to get younger and find some assets to help us get younger but still stay competitive. Kevin’s a (soon-to-be) 31-year-old player (on) a team going through a process. I’ll make no bones about it. Of course, he’s going to be in the conversation with other teams as we’re looking for other assets that are younger and getting involved in the situation. I’ve had frank conversations about this with Kevin,” Tortorella told 97.5 The Fanatic in March.
“It may be different in another organization, but the process that we’re in has to talk about Kevin Hayes involved in this and maybe moving on if the right thing comes.”
Drop in Production
Hayes has been productive offensively in 2022-23. With 17 goals and 36 assists, he needs just three points in his final seven games to break his career high of 55 points set in 2018-19. However, a look at the larger context paints a different picture. Tortorella scratched Hayes on Dec. 17, 2022 largely because of a lack of responsible defensive play after 31 games when he led the team with 29 points. The contentious debates started raging, but Tortorella elected to sacrifice offense for one game for the sake of sending a long-term message to an influential veteran in the room.
Once the scoring dried up, so did the value Hayes provided to the Flyers. The Massachusetts native has no goals and six assists in his last 22 games dating back to mid-February. He hasn’t brought the same spark to the team that made him a beloved player in the locker room during his first season in Philadelphia in 2019-20. While his teammates Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim, and Joel Farabee have all responded to benchings with improvement on the ice, Hayes has faded away from making a significant impact during the second half of the season.
Hayes ignited an incredible turnaround on the Philadelphia penalty kill (PK) in 2019-20 with impactful time on the top unit and the team lead in shorthanded goals. The same type of effort could’ve been a great addition to the aggressive PK style of first-year associate coach Brad Shaw on the “power kill” designed to pressure opponents into mistakes. However, Hayes hasn’t contributed significant shorthanded minutes this season. Meanwhile, Konecny and Owen Tippett have taken advantage of the new system by finding a way to contribute to the team despite having no previous experience killing penalties.
The advanced stats in 2022-23 align with Hayes’ career averages at first glance. His 48.58 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) and 49.46 Corsi For percentage (CF%) put him slightly below the average mark in the NHL. However, a closer look reveals that Hayes has become much more of a high-event player with more offensive chances created and allowed.
He has been on the ice for a career-high in shot attempts for, shot attempts against, expected goals for (xGF), and expected goals against (xGA) this season. He held a reputation as a reliable two-way center when the Flyers signed him, but he has evolved with a more risky style of play. The Flyers allowed just 2.41 xGA per 60 minutes with the 6-foot-5 forward on the ice during his best season in Philadelphia in 2019-20. That number has now skyrocketed to 2.92 in 2022-23 with seven games remaining.
Tortorella made it very clear as soon as he got to Philadelphia that he expected improvement from Hayes. He moved Hayes to the wing because of concerns on the defensive side, which has affected the dynamic between the two influential personalities. Despite a recent shift back to center, Hayes clearly hasn’t met the standard set by the two-time Jack Adams Award winner.
Trade Market for Hayes
“We’ll have a lot of discussions in which direction we’re going to move, but there’s no doubt that this is not a quick fix in my mind. I believe it’s going to take a little while, but at the same time, it doesn’t mean that we’re going to do a full fire sale and have a completely new team next year,” Brière said about the upcoming rebuild.
The organization might’ve decided that Hayes no longer fits, but they must also evaluate the circumstances and find the best possible way to move forward. A lucrative contract with a $7.14 million average annual value (AAV) through 2025-26 makes it highly unlikely that the Flyers can get a significant return package in any trade. Tortorella’s public challenges also haven’t helped the perception of Hayes around the NHL.
Brière and the Philadelphia front office will face a tough trade market, and they might have to retain salary to make the cap hit more manageable for a trade partner. While paying a player to suit up for another team certainly isn’t ideal, the Flyers can afford to eat some money when they don’t plan on contending for the playoffs in the short term.
A tight salary cap since the Covid-19 pandemic has put a premium on cap space and changed the leverage GMs have with trades designed to dump salary. The Vegas Golden Knights gave up Max Pacioretty to the Carolina Hurricanes in 2022 along with sweetener Dylan Coghlan for future considerations, which sometimes means no return. Pacioretty was 33 at the time with only one season remaining on his contract and a cap hit slightly less than Hayes at $7 million. The long-time sniper has an unquestionably better offensive track record than Hayes.
Elliotte Friedman reported in March that the Columbus Blue Jackets have interest in Hayes, partly because of his relationships with his former college teammate Johnny Gaudreau and director of player development Rick Nash. Hayes might fit well in the middle of Gaudreau and Patrik Laine on an offensive-minded line in 2023-24. The Blue Jackets also have the flexibility for trades with extra picks in four of the first five rounds in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
Related: Flyers Overhauling Organization with New Power Structure
The Blue Jackets moved Oliver Bjorkstrand in July 2022 for a third-round pick and a fourth-round pick. The right winger was coming off a career-best season with 28 goals and 29 assists at age 27. He had four seasons left on his contract with a $5.4 million annual cap hit. It’s tough to see Columbus giving up a better trade package for a player older than Bjorkstrand with a higher salary, comparable offensive numbers, and a damaged reputation as a defensive forward.
The salary cap should rise minimally, and the Flyers as a rebuilding team won’t face the same pressure and urgency as some contending organizations looking to free cap space immediately to make short-term additions. However, they have a depreciating asset in Hayes stuck in a clash with an incredibly demanding head coach in a situation that doesn’t look like it can be resolved.
Tortorella’s idea of “addition by subtraction” might not have been meant literally, but Philadelphia’s biggest gain from moving Hayes might have to be the simple fact of removing him and his salary from the organization. Brière has his work cut out for him in his first real test of leverage as an NHL executive. Even if the rookie GM retains salary, it’s hard to see a return package with any more than a collection of mid-round draft picks.
All advanced stats apply to 5-on-5 play, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.