For the first time in a long time (or at least it felt like a long time), the Philadelphia Flyers entered the 2023-24 season with a plan that fans could embrace. After years of making win-now moves under Chuck Fletcher that resulted in arguably the worst three-year stretch in franchise history, the Flyers finally saw the light. New general manager Danny Briere promised that a much-needed rebuild would truly commence. He backed up his words by trading veterans Ivan Provorov and Kevin Hayes in the off-season and taking a big swing at the NHL Draft by selecting Matvei Michkov. The future was finally bright in Philadelphia, even if the present would surely be a struggle.
About that last part — the Flyers haven’t seemed to get the memo. After sweeping a home-and-home with the hated Pittsburgh Penguins (albeit with both games going beyond regulation), the Flyers are firmly on the playoff bubble in the Eastern Conference. They are currently ninth in the conference in points percentage, eighth in goal differential and tied for fifth in points. There’s still plenty of hockey to be played, but with 25 games in the rearview mirror, the “it’s early” reasoning can no longer fully explain Philadelphia’s success.
Every win keeps the momentum going inside the Flyers’ dressing room. They also move the team further and further away from their odds of picking near the top of the 2024 NHL Draft. Some fans are worried the team may be falling into the trap that doomed the franchise in the 2010s when the Flyers settled into the league’s mushy middle with no way to escape. A report by 538 called the Flyers “the most consistently mediocre” team across the NHL, NBA, MLB and NFL from 2013-2018. That’s no way to make a living.
But neither is seeing a team knock off their biggest rival in consecutive games and responding with apathy or even anger. Yet plenty of Flyers fans see the team’s strong play this season as a negative. Another top draft pick would be nice to add to the pipeline. However, there are plenty of benefits in the short and long term for the Orange and Black.
Why The Flyers Are Succeding
There are good and bad ways for a rebuilding team to win games. For example, if a team is winning simply because it’s receiving out-of-this-world goaltending, their record isn’t a true indicator of the roster’s overall promise. And if the only players thriving are veterans who won’t be around when the team hopes to return to contention, that isn’t doing much good either.
In the last two seasons, the Flyers have gotten off to strong starts, but it was entirely due to the first of those reasons. In 2021-22, the Flyers began the season a solid 8-4-2. However, during that stretch, the Flyers were third in the NHL with a .928 team save percentage. Meanwhile, they ranked 31st in all situations in expected goals for percentage (xG) and 23rd at 5-on-5. Regression hit hard in the form of a 10-game losing streak that led to the firing of head coach Alain Vigneault and sent the season spiraling.
Last season, the Flyers started 7-3-2. This time, their goaltending was even better, with the team riding a league-best .932 save percentage, four percentage points higher than the next-best team. Another double-digit-game losing streak ensued, putting the Flyers in their place.
This season, the Flyers’ goaltending has been perfectly okay, with the team sitting 16th in the NHL in save percentage. It’s trending in the right direction with Sam Ersson being a finalist for the NHL’s November Rookie of the Month. However, it isn’t masking flaws the way it did in the past.
So, how have the Flyers been winning games? The answer is simple: they’ve been playing well at 5-on-5 and even better on the penalty kill. In the former situation, the Flyers hold a 53.40% xG, sixth in the NHL. Last season, 13 of the top 14 teams in xG% at 5-on-5 made the playoffs, showing the importance of controlling play at 5-on-5. Meanwhile, the Flyers are allowing the second-fewest xG per 60 minutes on the penalty kill and rank seventh in xG For per 60. By net penalty kill, which factors in short-handed goals as well as goals allowed on the PK, the Flyers are third in the NHL.
After working on the basics last season, John Tortorella has been more comfortable instilling an aggressive playstyle in his team this season. The Flyers have gone from being one of the league’s heaviest dump-and-chase teams to a top team on the rush. It’s a change that’s given some of the team’s younger players the chance to thrive.
Owen Tippett and Tyson Foerster look to be turning the corner after slow starts, with Foester especially coming into his own lately. Bobby Brink has faded a bit recently, but his strong start can’t be ignored. Egor Zamula has been healthy scratched a few times and has made some mistakes but had excellent performances as well. And as mentioned above, Ersson looks to be turning the corner, too.
Finally, the Flyers are getting quality performances from two veterans they desperately needed to produce — Sean Couturier and Travis Sanheim. With Couturier missing a season and a half due to injury and Sanheim coming off his worst NHL season, struggles from either this season could’ve made their contracts long-term albatrosses for the team. Instead, Couturier is looking close to the perennial Selke contender he was before his injury and Sanheim is on pace to shatter his career-high in scoring. All of these developments are positives for the Flyers both this season and for their long-term organizational health.
Addressing the State of the Rebuild
It is undeniably true that the Flyers’ odds of getting a top draft pick are suffering as the team surges. And while they do have some young talent, their prospect pool is closer to good than great. The Athletic’s Corey Pronman ranked the team’s pipeline 11th heading into the season and most other rankings have the Flyers somewhere between eighth and 19th. Some more talent is desperately needed.
However, the Flyers have ways to go about getting that talent in other ways. For starters, they have Florida’s first-round pick this year from the Claude Giroux trade. They also have an extra second-round pick for not signing 2018 first-rounder Jay O’Brien to an entry-level contract. The struggling Columbus Blue Jackets have to choose whether to give the Flyers their second-round pick this year or next year to complete the Ivan Provorov deal.
And as mentioned above, the Flyers already have quite a few young players taking steps forward. That’s a feature, not a bug of the team’s plans. And down in the American Hockey League, 2017 fourth-rounder Olle Lycksell is building off last year’s breakout season (19 points in 21 games) and 2020 second-rounder Samu Tuomaala is more than making up for two years of inconsistent development (18 points in 21 games). Both could be called up at some point soon. Additionally, 2019 third-rounder Ronnie Attard also has a quality 11 points in 18 games on the backend.
Related: Flyers Prospects Report: Michkov, Kolosov, Fedotov, and More
There’s also something to be said for establishing a winning culture and getting the Flyers’ young players experience in a playoff chase. It’s been over 2,000 days since the last time the Flyers hosted a playoff game in the Wells Fargo Center. If the Flyers somehow end that drought this year, which is still a long shot, it could be a huge boon for the development of their youth. Not to mention it would reinvigorate a fanbase that can be among the league’s best when the team is giving them reasons to celebrate.
The Flyers have finally upheld that part of the bargain so far this season. It’s still more likely a team that was almost unanimously picked to miss the playoffs this year will fall off. Even with their good record, Moneypuck.com only gives the Flyers a 21.3% chance of making the playoffs. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn has their odds even lower at 16% (from ‘NHL 2023-24 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings’, The Athletic, Dec. 5, 2023). But whether mid-April involves golf and ping-pong balls or staying on the ice, the Flyers are moving in the right direction — just in a different way than many expected them to.
Advanced Stats via Natural Stat Trick