Even though the Philadelphia Flyers weren’t expected to have a particularly successful 2023-24 season (and so far, they haven’t), but there were a few reasons to be excited about the club. Perhaps the biggest was the emergence of their top prospects, and among that group, few seemed more likely to make an impact in the NHL than Tyson Foerster.
Foerster was drafted 23rd overall in the 2020 NHL Draft. Over the last few seasons, he improved his once-weak skating, furthered his rocket of a shot, and consistently produced during both his junior days in the Ontario Hockey League and his first professional season in 2022-23. A year ago, Foerster led the Lehigh Valley Phantoms with 48 points and was named American Hockey League (AHL) All-Star. He even popped in a brief NHL audition, scoring seven points in eight games and winning over head coach John Tortorella in the process.
The Flyers are now 12 games into their season, which means it’s no longer acceptable to write off a player’s start, for better or worse, as being purely a product of a small sample size. It’s not clear which side Foerster fits. So far, he’s struggled to produce on the scoresheet. The question is whether or not the 21-year-old is doing enough to earn the right to try and breakthrough with the Flyers or if a return to the AHL is best for his development.
Foerster: The Bad
Foerster is, first and foremost, a scorer. So, it’s concerning that through a dozen games, he has just two points. It’s even more concerning that only one of those points is at 5-on-5. And it’s DEFCON 5 that a player who is known for his shot hasn’t found the back of the net yet this season.
When a young player goes through such a long drought, especially at the start of the season, it can ruin their confidence. The Flyers rode out the long scoring droughts Nolan Patrick went through in his first two NHL seasons (before injuries truly derailed his career), and though they eventually ended, they sapped Patrick’s mojo. Sending him to the AHL wasn’t an option, at least in his first season when he was still 18 years old. It is for Foerster, who the Flyers know can handle the AHL. Getting a few goals to rebuild his confidence could be exactly what he needs to get going.
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Additionally, demoting Foerster could kill two birds with one stone. The Flyers are still in limbo with Morgan Frost, who was back in the press box Tuesday night for the seventh time in 13 games this season. It’s not optimal for the 24-year-old to be sitting, nor is it ideal that Foerster isn’t producing. Sending Foerster down would solve the first problem and could fix the second as well.
Foerster: The Good
Foerster may not be scoring yet, but there are signs that he’s close. He ranks seventh on the Flyers in shots per 60 at 5-on-5, up slightly from his brief NHL stint last season. He has 2.58 expected goals for at 5-on-5 and 3.3 in all situations, which rank second and fifth on the team, respectively. It’s not like Foerster has lost his way or isn’t generating quality chances. He’s also fifth on the team in scoring chances and fourth in high-danger chances created in all situations. Both on the power play and at 5-on-5, he is making plays (from ‘Flyers lose to lowly Sharks with Morgan Frost out again, Tyson Foerster looking for a goal,’ The Athletic, Nov. 8, 2023).
Related: Solving the Flyers’ Struggling Power Play
And while Foerster may not be known as a defensive stalwart, he’s been one of Philadelphia’s best play-drivers this season. Despite starting his 5-on-5 in the defensive zone more than any Flyers forward other than Sean Couturier and Scott Laughton, Foerster is eighth on the roster (fifth among forwards) with a 53.85% Corsi for and fourth overall (third among forwards) with a 58.84% expected goals share.
Unfortunately, the Flyers are only scoring on 8.14% of their shots with Foerster on the ice at 5-on-5. That ranks 12th on the team and seventh among Philadelphia forwards. There’s a reason Tortorella hasn’t put him in the press box despite his scoring woes — the youngster deserves a better fate with the way he’s playing. Sending a player down who’s been more unlucky than bad could send the wrong message.
Foerster’s Role Going Forward
Pulling the plug on Foerster’s lineup spot right this second would probably be a mistake. He is playing legitimately good hockey — maybe even better than good. Nothing would build his confidence like being able to work through these struggles, turn his chances into goals, and take strides toward being the top-six sniper the Flyers envision him being.
However, the leash can only be so long. If the team reaches the 20-game mark or so and Foerster still isn’t scoring, they might not have a choice. He is a scorer, and the last thing the Flyers want is for this to become a Nino Niederriter rookie season situation, when the Swiss forward tallied just one goal in 55 games for the New York Islanders. Yes, Niederriter ultimately panned out, but not before spending the next year in the AHL and then being traded to the Minnesota Wild.
The Flyers have designs on keeping Foerster for a long time. Add in that demoting him opens the door for Frost to receive much-needed regular playing time again, and soon, it might just make too much sense to send Foerster down. It’s up to him to avoid things reaching that point.
Advanced Statistics via Natural Stat Trick