The Vegas Golden Knights have gotten off to a historically great start to the 2023-24 season. Starting with eight consecutive wins and getting points in each of their opening 10 games, the Stanley Cup champions have taken a six-point lead on the Pacific Division and are one of two teams that have yet to lose in regulation.
These Golden Knights are no strangers to hot starts, with the team going 9-2-0 by Nov. 1 of last season, taking 18 of a possible 22 points. Bruce Cassidy’s teams have also started off nicely in his coaching history, with a combined .743% winning percentage in the opening month of the last seven seasons.
Before I get started, it’s important to note that with such a small sample size of games, there’s a lot of data that might not totally reflect how the Golden Knights have performed compared to the rest of the league. They’re one of only four teams that have played 10 games this season, and their ranking in each statistic can and will likely change on a week-to-week basis.
Even Strength Offense Remains Strong
One major concern for the Golden Knights heading into this season was if they were going to be able to maintain the dominance at even strength that we saw in the playoffs last season.
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They scored 66 goals at 5-on-5 throughout their 22 postseason games, which is the most by any team since the NHL began tracking goals by strength in 2010. They also jumped from a 3.26 goals-per-game average in the 2022-23 regular season to a 4.00 average in the playoffs despite converting on just 21.9 percent of their power plays. While they haven’t been able to replicate these numbers to start the 2023-24 season, they’ve come pretty close.
Twenty-seven of the Golden Knights’ 35 total goals have come at 5-on-5, the third-most in the league behind the Detroit Red Wings and the Los Angeles Kings, who are tied for first with 28. Comparing that to their Stanley Cup run, the Golden Knights are averaging 2.7 even-strength goals per game, while they previously averaged 3.0 in the playoffs.
They are also third in the league in high-danger chances for (HDCF) at 5-on-5 with 91. While their offensive depth has always been a huge part of their success, I was surprised to find out that the fourth-line combination of William Carrier, Nicolas Roy and Keegan Kolesar had combined for the second-most high-danger chances as a line while also leading the team in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) at 60.78 percent.
At this point, this level of success shouldn’t be that surprising. Since the 2017-18 season, only the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs have scored more even-strength goals. It’s been their main way of generating offense, and nothing is going to change. As much as I complain about their lack of production on the power play, they’ve consistently found ways to win without having special teams make or break them, which is much better than the opposite.
Standout Performers
With all of our predictions heading into the 2023-24 season, a resurgence from William Karlsson was certainly not on my radar. After an incredible first season with the Golden Knights six seasons ago, where Karlsson had 43 goals and 78 points, he has since shifted into a two-way shutdown role on the team’s third line alongside Michael Amadio and one of Pavel Dorofeyev or Brett Howden. He now leads the team in scoring with 11 points and isn’t even seeing top power play time.
Related: Golden Knights Originals Karlsson & Theodore Driving Hot Start
As for something I did predict, Shea Theodore is getting a ton of attention as an early candidate for the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s best defenseman. He’s tied with Jack Eichel for second in team scoring with 10 points through 10 games played and has quickly taken over Alex Pietrangelo as the team’s most reliable defenseman. He plays in all on-ice situations and leads the team in ice time with an average of 23:49.
Lastly, Jack Eichel has picked up right where he left off as the most valuable offensive player on this Golden Knights roster. In addition to producing at a point-per-game pace, Eichel has also increased his shot volume tremendously, sitting second in the entire league in shots behind Nathan MacKinnon. While he hasn’t had the same goal-scoring results as other players with similar shot totals, his willingness to shoot is enough to get excited about for the weeks to come.
Golden Knights’ Questionable Defense
As much as I’d love to continue talking about their great offense, one thing that has been noticeably different about this Golden Knights team from last season is their defensive play.
The Golden Knights have given up the second-most high-danger chances at 5-on-5 in the league (93) behind the winless San Jose Sharks (113) and have allowed the fifth-most expected goals at 5-on-5 (xGA). While these stats are typically weighted slightly higher for those who have played more games, there’s no doubt that the Golden Knights have allowed a lot more sustained pressure than in previous seasons.
Considering the Golden Knights have still managed to rank third in goals against per game, their goaltenders deserve a ton of credit. Logan Thompson has posted a .931 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.21 goals against average (GAA) while also sitting sixth in goals saved above expected (GSAx), and Adin Hill has a .923 SV% and a 2.11 GAA. Both of them rank in the top 10 in almost every goaltender stat and have exceeded all expectations set for them heading into the season.
Last season, Cassidy’s system was a lot more goaltender-friendly than it has been so far. In 2022-23, the Golden Knights finished with three players in the top 10 in blocks, allowed the third-least high-danger chances, and did a much better job overall at keeping the opposition to the outside of their own zone. It’s safe to say that a lot more has been asked of Hill and Thompson to start the season, and they’ve both responded admirably.
Final Thoughts on Golden Knights’ First 10 Games
If you’re someone who solely focuses on results, it’s going to be difficult to convince you that any of the criticisms made in this piece are worth caring about after a nearly perfect record in the month of October. The Golden Knights are a talented enough team that they’re going to win games that they shouldn’t, but they should care a lot more about the type of habits they’re building within each game, especially this early in the season.
It’s been a great start, and finding ways to win despite playing poorly is a great way to boost a team’s confidence. Their performance in November will be a big indicator of whether or not their current style of play is translatable to long-term success, and this will be a great opportunity for them to sharpen up the defensive details that made them so tough to play against last season.