The same question that was being asked at the exit interviews this season is being asked now; what is going to happen with the seven key 2024 unrestricted free agents (UFA) on the Calgary Flames? New general manager (GM) Craig Conroy got right to work to find out which of the seven players are interested in re-signing. Without losing valuable assets while keeping the team competitive, Conroy is willing to make the big moves and trade those players who aren’t in the team’s future plans.
Elliotte Friedman joined Pat Steinberg on Sportsnet 960 to talk about the Flames and gave some interesting insight into how talks might have gone with defenceman Noah Hanifin. Friedman noted that with two big-name defencemen taken off the board by the Columbus Blue Jackets, a team that wants a solid blueliner will probably have to trade for one:
“I think the Flames are doing their due diligence now and kind of finding out where all their guys feel. The Flames have not confirmed any of this, so I’ll say that straight out, but I will say that there’s a feeling out there that Hanifin is going to be available. So I think there’s some teams out there looking for defence who are beginning to think, ‘Okay, what are we going to have to do to do this?'”
Elliotte Friedman
Before Hanifin trade rumours surfaced, it was already a question whether the Flames would move one of their defencemen considering Oliver Kylington is returning to the team next season and they have a lot of good players on the back end. Any of Hanifin, Chris Tanev, Nikita Zadorov, or Kylington could be traded, depending on where they stand and the market interest. One thing is for certain, a couple of them will see their numbers dip if they get stuck in a third-pairing role.
Why Hanifin?
Hanifin is best compared to Jakub Chychrun and Ivan Provorov. While Chychrun’s trade from the Arizona Coyotes was dragged out, and he has injury problems, Provorov’s was quick and out of nowhere. Hanifin has a similar price tag but one less year remaining on his deal (taking into consideration the retained salary on Provorov), is a top-pairing defenceman, 26 years old, and very durable.
He broke into the league very young and is two shy of 600 regular-season games. Hanifin will become a UFA after next season, and next to Elias Lindholm, holds arguably the most value in a trade. The Flames have the pieces to replace him in-house this offseason and use that cap space to address their forward group. While he has a cap hit of $4.95 million average annual value (AAV), I can see his new contract being similar to Damon Severson’s newly signed, eight-year deal worth $6.25 million AAV.
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Hanifin has been a great partner for Rasmus Andersson, who arguably moved into the number-one role this season. He took power-play time away from Hanifin and surpassed him in goals, points, and ice time by a fair margin. In terms of trade value, he should be able to at least fetch the Flames a first-round pick this offseason.
I expect the Flames to be more competitive next season, so moving him at the deadline without a contract or deal in place will be riskier and have less value. It wouldn’t look good if Conroy shows little confidence in his team if they are in the race by trading Hanifin. Or worse, what if the Flames miss out on the playoffs or lose in the first round and Hanifin walks in free agency?
While Andersson and Hanifin have grown together and developed great chemistry, the Flames have some highly effective options to play alongside Andersson. He played with three partners for more than 100 minutes at 5-on-5 this season, per Natural Stat Trick, and his numbers with Hanifin were actually the worst among his three partners, taking into account that they played against the top matchups on many nights. Andersson also played with MacKenzie Weegar and Zadorov, and while his Corsi for percentage (CF%) with Hanifin was 51.79, it was 57.31 and 58.96 with the other two, respectively.
Andersson and Hanifin had an expected goals-for percent (xGF%) of 53.11 and goals-for percent (GF%) of 51.72, which are both above average and good for the competition they faced. But Weegar and Zadorov had elite numbers. Weegar and Andersson had a 56.41 xGF% and 62.50 GF%, while Zadorov and Andersson had a 54.40 xGF% and 61.54 GF%. This just goes to show that the Flames should be fine defensively if they trade Hanifin.
I think that Hanifin should be a solid, long-term staple on the Flames’ blue line, but things don’t always work out the way you want them to. Former GM Brad Treliving had to pivot last offseason in regards to Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, so Conroy is striving not to make the same mistakes with no time to adequately structure the roster. Whether Hanifin stays or goes, we should find out soon enough.