Danny Nelson is a 6-foot-3, 212-pound center selected 49th overall by the New York Islanders in the 2023 NHL Draft. He spent the 2023-24 season as a freshman at the University of Notre Dame. He had nine goals and 23 points in 30 games with the Fighting Irish and was one of the best defensive centers in the NCAA.
With the current Islanders core fighting to join the upper echelon of Stanley Cup contenders, fans have not had many prospects to look forward to recently with the team’s past trade decisions. The team had not made a first-round selection since the 2019 NHL Entry Draft when they selected Simon Holmstrom, so there are not many prospects to follow. However, Nelson is one of them.
Strengths
Nelson formerly played a mix of defense and center throughout his childhood but permanently switched to center once he got to college. Despite being one of the youngest players in college hockey, turning 19 this coming August, he has shown strides in development as one of the best two-way forwards in the NCAA. He is one of the best faceoff takers in the NCAA. His elite stick and body use allow him to match up well against opposing defenders.
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Recently, fans caught a glimpse of his abilities on national television when he suited up for the United States in the World Junior Championship (WJC), where the team won gold. He was relied on in late-game situations as a shutdown forward and on the penalty kill unit. His maturity and confidence have gotten him this far, and he will continue to develop into a strong professional forward.
Before the season, Notre Dame head coach Jeff Jackson spoke to Sports+ of the New York Post about Nelson, stating, “he might have a better career up front just because he’s big, rangy, got a good shot, he does some good things offensively… we’d take him either way” (from ‘Islanders second-rounder Danny Nelson has college to figure out his best position,’ New York Post, June 30, 2023). A season later, Nelson did just that, surpassing expectations and positioning himself well to take the next step in his journey next season.
Concerns
Nelson has more strengths than weaknesses, but there are some areas to watch. While there are no glaring weaknesses, his speed and movement should be noted. His skating used to be a struggle but has improved a lot, especially since he began his college career. For someone of his size, his edgework and agility are impressive, but he still needs work to translate his game to the next level.
His playmaking and puckhandling are other areas of his game that could use improvement. In the defensive zone, he is exceptional, creating space from opposing skaters and efficiently clearing pucks from his own zone. He is strong around the net in the offensive zone, but in open ice, he struggles. Manuerving from the point through the hash marks and behind the net, it is hard for him to create space to find opportunities. While this is an area he should aim to improve, utilizing him as a net-front presence who moves between the slot and screening is how to maximize his performance.
Estimated Time of Arrival
Being so young, it is hard to put lofty expectations on him. He has shown throughout his young career that he is constantly learning and improving, a key attribute in developing as a prospect. He is likely to spend at least one more full season in college before turning professional, so fans should not expect to see him until at least 2025.
The Islanders have also been known to be patient with their prospects, especially those in college. Prospects Cameron Berg and Alex Jefferies have put up impressive totals in the NCAA on their respective teams as point-per-game or near-point-per-game players but have stayed to develop as upperclassmen. With Nelson being so young, staying for three or four seasons is in the cards, but if Islanders management feels he could contribute sooner, they will not hesitate to sign him.
While his earliest debut would be after the 2024-25 season, he is most likely to sign an amateur tryout with the Bridgeport Islanders when the time comes, then play one full season in Bridgeport before making the jump, making him a rookie in the 2026-27 NHL season where he will be just 21 years of age. While this may seem like a far time away, continued strides in his development could get him on Long Island sooner.
Ceiling and Floor
Once he does make the NHL, he will look to play a significant role in the team’s middle six and penalty kill before earning time on the powerplay and top six. Of the Islander’s prospects, he has a relatively high floor, marking him as likely to make the NHL in a full-time capacity. At the very least, he will fill in as a Casey Cizikas replacement, leading the fourth line and penalty kill as one of the better fourth-line centers in the league. He will also be a shoo-in for 10-15 goals and 25-30 points.
His ceiling is also quite high. He has the potential to be a consistent 20-goal, 55-60-point scorer who can lead the first unit of a penalty kill. In his first true season as a center, he has embraced the role quite well. Once at the NHL level, he may transition to a full-time left wing who can join Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat on the top line.
He would replace the current alumnus of his alma mater, Anders Lee, who also has a taller physical profile. Nelson achieving 40 goals in a season like Lee is far-fetched, but the potential of a few 30-goal seasons is not out of the question, especially if he joins the dominant top line. While getting overexcited about your favorite team’s prospects is easy, Nelson deserves some hype.
The Islanders have a bare prospect pool, with few prospects to get excited about. However, the team has its first—and second-round picks this draft, providing fans with hope of adding some notable names to the pool. Whether the team holds onto its selections or trades them is currently unknown. Regardless, they will have Nelson, who possesses the upside few recent Islanders’ prospects have.