The New York Islanders have been stuck in mediocrity for the entirety of the Lou Lamoriello era. Since John Tavares’ departure, the Islanders have had a few deep playoff runs, but have failed to bring home a Stanley Cup. The roster has been able to compete with the best of the best, but also lose to anyone. Looking ahead, it is hard to believe results will be any different, and an aggressive 2024 offseason may be the solution to get the team back into Stanley Cup contention.
Analyzing the Islanders’ Roster
The Islanders are not one piece away from being contenders but rather three or four. The roster lacks first and second-line left wings with elite offensive upside, as well as a lack of offense from the entirety of the bottom six and stability among the defense pairings. These are all issues that can be addressed, but it will not be easy.
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With the current construction of the roster, the forward core is the only way to enact true change. The Islanders have Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield signed long-term. Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov also have one season remaining on their contracts and are likely to be extended long-term in the near future. This leaves just one spot to fill on the defense, with Mike Reilly and Samuel Bolduc leading candidates for the position. Goaltending is much of the same, with Ilya Sorokin signed for eight seasons and Semyon Varlamov poised to stick around following his heroics to end the 2023-24 regular season.
With Lamoriello and the Islanders’ core not getting any younger, it appears as if it is now or never for the roster. Nearly the entirety of the core is on the back nine of their careers, and each season that passes by only signals a greater need to rebuild the roster. If this current group is going to win a Stanley Cup, it will be within the next two or three seasons, not in five or six.
A reason to believe the franchise feels this way is their decision to name Patrick Roy head coach. As a midseason hire, he was given a two-year contract, an uncommon feat for coaches signed during the season. In his abbreviated tenure, he led the Islanders to a near 100-point pace, showcasing an ability to perform at an elite level. With a fully healthy roster and a long offseason, there is no reason to believe Roy will not get the most out of each player.
How to Execute This Plan
Despite having a strong season once Roy took over, there is still a clear need to improve the roster. Changes must be made via signings and trades. Ideally, both Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($5 million) and Anders Lee ($7 million) will be traded alongside their expensive salaries. Both players have been instrumental to the team’s success in recent seasons, but their pricey contracts have no place on the Islanders next season. In order to move their contracts, they may need to pair them with draft capital, but that should be no issue for the Islanders who own three picks in the first two rounds of the 2024 Draft.
From there, the Islanders will have around $16.5 million in salary with a need to solidify the forward core and potentially third defensive pair. The easy fix for the defense is to bring back Reilly on a deal of around $1.5 million. As a waiver wire pickup, he was phenomenal, filling in throughout the lineup for injuries. If he does not sustain his success from last season, the Islanders will have Bolduc available and the option to make a midseason trade.
Now, with around $15 million, the Islanders will get to make their first big move. It will start by trading the 20th pick in the draft to the Winnipeg Jets for Nikolaj Ehlers. They might need to include additional assets in the deal, such as Oliver Wahlstrom or another draft pick. However, acquiring Ehlers, a career 20-plus goal scorer and 60-plus point forward, who will earn just $6 million next season, would be a fantastic way to complete the top forward line. Ehlers is left-handed, possesses good speed, and has a powerful shot, all of which are attributes the Islanders would desire in a replacement for Lee.
With around $9 million in cap space left and just two roster spots to fill, the Islanders will find the perfect linemate to slot in alongside Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri. This will be in free agency as the team signs Teuvo Teravainen. A left winger with 25 goals and 53 points last season with the Carolina Hurricanes, he is a fast-paced skater with elite vision and creativity. His previous contract made him $5.4 million per season and was signed en route to a 21-goal, 76-point campaign. The soon-to-be 30-year-old’s next contract will likely come in at a similar value, with the Islanders signing him here to a four-year, $5 million average annual value (AAV) deal.
With the Teravainen signing, the Islanders’ top six is completed, but the bottom six configuration is still unsolved. The weakest part of the forward core last season was the offense in the bottom six, so the Islanders must address this issue by adding reliable scorers in the area. This will be through free agency by signing Daniel Sprong.
Sprong is one of the most underrated forwards in the NHL as a reliable 20-goal scorer in a team’s bottom six. He has played on five different teams in his NHL career, failing to cement himself in a daily lineup due to defensive and skating concerns. With Lee finding success on the Islanders for so many seasons with those same qualities, there is no reason to believe Sprong cannot translate his game to Long Island. Unlike Lee’s $7 million salary, Sprong is likely to make around $3 million, a great deal for the Islanders.
With these three major acquisitions, the Islanders’ lineup will look something like this as a 20-player roster with just over $2 million in cap space.
- Ehlers – Horvat – Barzal
- Teravainen – Nelson – Palmieri
- Engvall – Cizikas – Sprong
- Tsyplakov – Maclean – Holmstrom
- Extra: Fasching
- Romanov – Dobson
- Pelech – Pulock
- Reilly – Mayfield
- Extra: Bolduc
- Sorokin
- Varlamov
This lineup may not be perfect, but it is a vast improvement from last season. The first line becomes one of the best in the NHL, possessing three 20-plus goal, 80-plus point scorers when together. The second line saw success with Engvall’s speed on the wing, but adding a more defined offensive threat will take it to the next level.
The third line consists of three players who have frequently changed lineups in recent seasons. Creating a “misfit” line for these players, who now have a stable spot in the lineup, can significantly aid in developing their chemistry. If these players have managed to achieve some level of success despite inconsistent linemates and playing time, just think of their potential once they find their rhythm. The fourth line is likely the biggest concern as it consists of three players with major question marks regarding their NHL ability. However, solving these issues via trade would be an easy fix, so this is an issue the team can address midseason if needed.
The only potential issue on defense is the third pairing, but in reality, Bolduc and Mayfield have performed well together. Over 24 games, they have an expected goals percentage of 49.7, according to Money Puck. With a complete training camp and a healthy offseason, they could develop the chemistry needed to become one of the league’s top third pairings. In net, not much needs to be said about Sorokin. If he can bounce back from his 2023-24 campaign, the Islanders will be a scary team to square up against. Varlamov is likely to also remain one of the NHL’s best backup goaltenders.
The Islanders have many issues, but perhaps none greater than the lack of direction. Clearly, the current roster is incapable of winning a Stanley Cup, but they are not too far from reaching that point. With the entirety of the offseason left to unfold, they must make multiple significant moves to ensure the 2024-25 season is not wasted.
