The streaky New York Islanders are in the winning column again, with a shot at qualifying for the postseason. The team sits third in the Metropolitan Division with 85 points. Since playoff contenders behind them in the standings don’t have any games in hand, the Islanders control their own destiny.
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With five games remaining, including two against the first-place New York Rangers, the Islanders must continue to win because the tiebreaker could be in jeopardy due to row points. Should the playoffs become a reality, the blue and orange could face three teams in the first round. Here’s our ranking of the possible matchups from worst to best.
3. New York Rangers
If you aren’t a fan of these two teams, then this would be a great matchup because of their intense rivalry. However, Rangers and Islanders fans likely don’t feel the same, as it would be devastating for the loser of the series to have to deal with their rival next-door neighbor.
In this series, the Islanders would take the last wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, and the Rangers would lock up the number one seed. On paper, the Rangers have superior talent. Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin, Alexis Lafreniere, and Chris Kreider are no comparison to Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson, Bo William Horvat, and Anders Lee. The Islanders can’t try to outskill the Rangers, or they will lose.
Instead, head coach Patrick Roy needs a game plan that stifles the Rangers, similar to what the New Jersey Devils did in Games 3-7 during the 2023 Playoffs. They must play low-event hockey and try to win games 2-1, not 6-5. One matchup Roy should try to expose is the Jacob Trouba-K’Andre Miller defensive pairing if Rangers coach Peter Laviolette sticks with them. This season, they have an expected goals for (xGF) of 48.41 percent, according to Natural Stat Trick. Maybe the solution for Roy is putting Alexnader Romanov and Ryan Pulock out against them – they account for 50 percent of the xGF share when on the ice together.
2. Carolina Hurricanes
The Carolina Hurricanes have been one of the best-structured teams in the NHL this season. At the deadline, they added one of the top scorers in the NHL, Jake Guentzel, and he’s fit in nicely, registering nine points in his last five games. Also, the Hurricanes defensive core has few holes, from Jaccob Slavin to Brett Pesce. As a unit, the Hurricanes rank first in Corsi-for percentage and second in xGF%.
The good news for the Islanders is the Hurricanes have had spotty goaltending this season, as Pyotr Kochetkov has been forced to play 40 games, registering only a .910 save percentage. On the season, the Islanders went a respectable 2-2 against the Hurricanes.
The bad news is Frederik Andersen is back in net for the Hurricanes – and he’s been playing well. In 15 games this season, the Denmark native has saved 12 goals above expected for 10th amongst netminders, per Money Puck. If the Islanders face off against the Hurricanes, they must win the goaltending battle to stand any chance, whether Semyon Varlamov or Ilya Sorokin is between the pipes. There will be long stretches in the series when the Hurricanes control play, and it will feel like the puck is glued to their sticks.
1. Boston Bruins
While it certainly won’t be easy, the most favorable matchup for the Islanders is the Boston Bruins. This season, the original six franchise ranks 18th in xGF% and 25th in CF%. The Islanders are 19th in xGF% and 24th in CF% – so not much of a difference in underlying metrics.
But the Bruins have stood out the last two seasons for two reasons. David Pastrnak has been one of the best players in the league and a Hart Trophy finalist, and they have the best goaltending tandem. Money Puck has Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark ranked third and fourth in the NHL in goals saved above expected this season. Meanwhile, not a lot of forwards besides Brad Marchand are scary on the Bruins. The same can be said for their defensemen outside of Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy.
Two things need to happen for the Islanders to steal the series. First, they must solve Ullmark and/or Swayman, and Sorokin or Varlamov have to be at the top of their game. Second, containing Pastrnak and not letting him light up the score sheet would be huge. If the Islanders can do that, they have a legitimate chance. While we like their chances here, this series is the least likely to happen out of the three. The Rangers have a three-point lead on the Bruins for first place in the Eastern Conference with four games left to play each.
Now, keep in mind that the Islanders still need to finish the job and make the playoffs. The Eastern Conference has been wide open this season, as teams in the playoff hunt have failed to win consistently enough. But with the Islanders’ core continuing to age and the lack of potential difference-making prospects in the system, nothing good will come out of losing in the first round. A meaningful playoff run is needed.