Brock Nelson has been one of the New York Islanders’ best players in recent seasons. He continuously finds the scoresheet, scores key goals, and drives offense from a line that would be nothing without him. He has been an alternate captain since the 2020-21 season and is one of the most underrated players in the league. Now entering the final season under his contract, what should Islanders fans expect his next one to look like?
Assessing Nelson’s Skills
Nelson is coming off a 34-goal, 69-point performance where he played in all 82 games. This was his third straight season scoring 30 goals, and his eighth time in the past nine seasons where he scored at or above a 20-goal pace. He is the Islanders’ offense, and he finds ways to drive offense from all over the ice.
He is best known for his blistering wrist shot. It is fast, smooth, and feels as if it can go in from anywhere on the ice. He uses his silky hands to go above the goaltender’s pads, but also to make sweet passes across the ice. He helped the Islanders’ improve the powerplay and second line this season by utilizing his threat to create scoring chances for his linemates. He has improved his skating and used it as a tool to grab the attention of defenders to open the ice for linemates, and this has especially paid dividends for his season-long linemate, Kyle Palmieri.
Palmieri tied his career high of 30 goals, and Nelson had the second most assists of his career in a season with 35. The two showed their chemistry each shift, and that will be a massive bright spot moving forward. They spent 563.5 minutes together on a line alongside Piere Engvall and spent over 800 minutes together overall this season. In addition to his 69 points, the Engvall, Nelson, and Palmieri line, according to Moneypuck, had a 55.3 expected goals percentage, the fifth best of any line in the NHL with over 500 minutes together. They shut down top opponents and drove consistent offense, providing stability to a team that did not know what that word meant this season.
Contract Comparables
Nelson is in a unique position moving forward. His current contract is a six-year, $6 million average annual value (AAV) deal, a great contract given his production. At the time of signing, he was coming off a 19-goal season, which was the last time he scored at a below 20-goal pace. It is easy to say he is due for a pay raise, but given his age, is that in the cards?
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Nelson is arguably a top-32 center in the NHL and should be in line to receive a contract similar to that of Evgeni Malkin’s four-year, $6.1 million AAV, Anze Kopitar’s two-year, $7 million AAV, and Ryan O’Reilly’s four-year, $4.5 million AAV. All three have recently signed these contracts and are on the back nine of their NHL careers. They are established centers with strong resumes, and they each are deserving of their new paydays.
Nelson, who will turn 34 at the beginning of his next contract, is likely looking for some term. This could be a three to four-year deal, backed with a no-trade clause. He has settled down nicely on Long Island, and he would want the security to continue raising his family in the place he has spent his entire career.
The Islanders bringing back Nelson should be an obvious idea, especially given NHL insider Eliotte Friedman’s comments on Nelson during the 2024 Trade Deadline. On the 32 Thoughts Podcast, Friedman joked that “Lou Lamoriello would rather eat his left leg than trade Brock Nelson.” He discussed Nelson’s value to the team, and how losing him would change the soul of the franchise.
Given this statement, the Islanders will likely do whatever they can to retain Nelson, likely giving him the term he desires. So, a three-year contract, with a full no-trade clause for the first two seasons before a modified no-trade clause for the final season, is likely to occur. The predicted AAV will also range, with it going as low as $5 million a year if Nelson decides to be team friendly, or as high as $7 or $7.5 million if he stretches his leverage. However, the most likely outcome is a slight raise to his current contract, signifying the Islanders’ satisfaction with his previous deal, garnering a $6.25 million AAV deal over three seasons.
With the NHL Draft and free agency nearing, the Islanders will have a lot of tough decisions to make. There are not any important pending free agents, but that could be viewed as an issue, as the team is tight to the cap and needs to find ways to improve. Luckily, with the salary cap ceiling expected to keep rising over the next few seasons, the team can make more aggressive moves to improve the current core, including extending Nelson this offseason.
