Nikolaj Ehlers recently spoke to the media, stating “There has been no talk with [Kevin Cheveldayoff] so far and I still definitely have to talk to him with my agent as well.” The Winnipeg Jets forward is entering the final year of his seven-year, $42 million contract. With the Jets facing a critical decision regarding Ehlers this offseason, could the New York Islanders be a bit in a potential trade?
Why the Islanders Are a Fit
Given Ehlers’ caliber of play, many teams are expected to have interest in the winger. The 28-year-old is in the midst of his prime, coming off of a 25-goal and 61-point season. This was the second season he has played more than 65 games since 2018, so injury concerns are no longer a factor.
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Ehlers has spent his entire nine-season NHL career in Winnipeg, frequenting the top six on both sides of the ice. He can play in any system and generate offense in all aspects of the game, so his versatility would be a great addition to the Islanders’ top six. He would presumably play alongside Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat, rounding out the Islanders’ top line by adding a third elite forward. Ehlers’ 61 points would be a valuable upgrade from current first-liner Anders Lee, who finished the 2023-24 season with just 37 points. By adding Ehlers, Lee would be able to move into the Islanders’ middle six, enhancing one of their biggest struggles from last season.
Another reason Ehlers would be a great addition is because he is in a contract year. Each season, many of the premier pending free-agent forwards put up career point totals since so much is on the line for their future contracts. This can be seen this past season with star forwards Sam Reinhart, Jake Guentzel, and William Nylander all putting up career highs while fighting for their next contracts. Of course, it would be no guarantee to see Ehlers have a career season, but history is on his side.
Another reason Ehlers would be a great fit is the Islanders would not be locked into keeping him over a long time. Adding a player of his caliber is a no-brainer for all teams, but the Islanders need to stay away from signing anyone else to a long-term contract. Given they will have seven players signed for five or more seasons, and 12 with a modified or full no-trade clause yet are still barely making the playoffs, adding another long-term contract to the middling roster makes no sense. If Ehlers struggles and the Islanders decide to retool, they have no obligation to retain his services.
What Could an Ehlers Trade Look Like?
While Winnipeg believed to be listening to offers on Ehlers, they will not move him for pennies on the dollar (from ‘Nikolaj Ehlers trade destinations: If the Jets move him, what can they get?,’ The Athletic, May 16, 2024). They would likely want a defenseman like Ryan Pulock, but that seems unlikely due to his no-trade clause. They could go after another defenseman like Samuel Bolduc, but are more likely to go after other Islanders’ assets they can flip for a skater on another team.
The Islanders own the 18th and 50th overall selections in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, as well as their first-round picks in all future seasons. Additionally, they have a few prospects such as Calle Odelius, Isaiah George, William Dufour, and Alex Jefferies who could be of value to the Jets.
A deal would likely have the framework of the Vancouver Canucks’ moves at the 2023 Trade Deadline, flipping the first-round pick they obtained in the Horvat trade to the Detroit Red Wings for Filip Hronek. Given the Canucks are not nearing a contract extension with Hronek, Winnipeg could try to acquire him. They could also go after other defensemen like Aaron Ekblad, John Marino, or Adam Larsson. They have options available, so acquiring another first-round pick could give them the ability to acquire a great defenseman. A deal would likely be Ehlers and a late-round selection for the 18th pick and a combination of an Islanders’ second-round pick or one of the team’s many prospects.
Winnipeg could also trade Ehlers for future draft capital and use the freed money on a free-agent defenseman like Brady Skjei or Brandon Montour. It is hard to gauge which type of defenseman will be targetted given Brenden Dillon, Dylan DeMelo, and Neal Pionk’s uncertainty heading into the offseason, but the Jets will have their options open both through trade and free agency.
With Ehlers and the Jets yet to engage in contract discussions, it is the perfect time for the Islanders to swoop in to add the coveted winger. Players of his caliber are not easy to come by, and it frankly does not make much sense why Winnipeg would be interested in moving him. However, he is up for grabs and the Islanders need to capitalize on the opportunity.
